|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 14, 2021 22:27:28 GMT -6
I think it’s way too early to look at midweek. Let’s enjoy tonight and tomorrow and see what it does. midweek system is further SE on GFSv16. Not a complete miss but not a direct hit either. Would add maybe 5" here in Waterloo. I had hopes that the midweek system would be the "bigger" of the two and it still could be but looking less likely now. Many people have been asking about it and I'm only briefly mentioning it and I'm not putting much detail into it. It is definitely not too early given we are only talking 3-4 days but it is too early to get into specifics I suppose. |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 22:28:18 GMT -6
Wasn't the first wave suppose to hit the Metro and points west and northwest? Alot of blowing snow here. But it's mainly with what's already fallen this week.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 22:28:46 GMT -6
Measured 1.0" in Arnold This stuff is pure powder Yeah...I have to be honest...that's making me rethink my 15:1 assumption. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 22:29:45 GMT -6
Mean QPF on the 00z GEFS looks like it is almost 0.50" for STL
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 22:30:24 GMT -6
I got a rock.
|
|
|
|
Post by ams3389 on Feb 14, 2021 22:34:02 GMT -6
Oh I know there is interest. I am too. But I always thought rule here was one storm at a time or let’s not put numbers on it until this ones out of the way plus over the Rockies. Either way, I’m all for snow on snow. Historic winter week for us potentially. I’m glued. I just hope tomorrow doesn’t bust in Soco area. I think it’s way too early to look at midweek. Let’s enjoy tonight and tomorrow and see what it does. Many people have been asking about it and I'm only briefly mentioning it and I'm not putting much detail into it. It is definitely not too early given we are only talking 3-4 days but it is too early to get into specifics I suppose. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 22:34:53 GMT -6
I have returned from the 'front lines' it was nuts 4PM to 8PM, than winded down. Half surprised Schnucks decided to stay open, but I bet Valentine's Day and the fact it's President's Day tomorrow along with the worst weather being after midnight likely drove their decision.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 22:35:57 GMT -6
GFSv16 is insanity  Gotta give it credit thought it has been as consistent as a rock through and through. Likely is/was on to something. |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 22:36:08 GMT -6
I know I shouldn't but I'm starting to get a bit skeptical on western counties getting much from this. I think the dry air really wasn't picked up by some of the models. Feel like its eating away at what folks west of Stl were suppose to get today. I hope I'm wrong.
I know that the bigger push is tomorrow. But feel like that will be for folks on the east-side, south and southeast of STL.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Feb 14, 2021 22:36:30 GMT -6
Mean QPF on the 00z GEFS looks like it is almost 0.50" for STL That's flipping impressive, but can't get too focused on qpf I guess. A conversative 20 to 1 ratio IMO yields a 10" mean! |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 22:37:20 GMT -6
GFSv16 is insanity Gotta give it credit thought it has been as consistent as a rock through and through. Likely is/was on to something. I sure hope it's right. Some folks are so used to getting screwed that you cant help but be alittle doubtful... |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 22:38:01 GMT -6
Looks like the 1st mini break is on tap, but SGF radar is blowing up real nice. The main show after midnight, especially 1-2AM into mid morning looks well on tap.
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 14, 2021 22:39:56 GMT -6
Large area power outage east of Belleville
|
|
|
|
Post by birddog on Feb 14, 2021 22:40:47 GMT -6
Swing and a miss here. -.6° with a wind chill of -18°
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 22:43:01 GMT -6
Cloud tops just SW of St. Louis have warmed. So we are about to have a pretty big break.
But the next vorticity piece moves into South Central MO about 1AM.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 22:44:11 GMT -6
Gotta give it credit thought it has been as consistent as a rock through and through. Likely is/was on to something. I sure hope it's right. Some folks are so used to getting screwed that you cant help but be alittle doubtful... We've all been there, but tomorrow is looking really promising. Its not model fantasy anymore. You can see the shortwave ejecting on water vapor imagery and in response a large area of precipitation is blowing up across central Texas. That's going to race NE and blow up as the trough goes negative. As the trough goes negative it will also help the precipitation to linger over the area tomorrow |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Feb 14, 2021 22:44:11 GMT -6
-14 already in CO springs. Looks like we could make a run for -20
|
|
modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
|
Post by modracer on Feb 14, 2021 22:45:17 GMT -6
They’ve cut in several times already. New set looks awesome. And I could have sworn Glenn said not much being reported with this round. I beg to differ, I’m willing to bet we have a minimum of 1”-1-1/2” on the ground. Will check shortly. It’s going to be a late night at Ch2, they didn’t start the race until 8:30. Which is fine , for news/weather, I only watch Chris anymore, and others sources for news online. I wanted to see the new set. I have my recording set to go until midnight. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 22:48:33 GMT -6
Water vapor shows a healthy disturbance crossing the Red River in S/central OK headed this way...that should increase lift over us again after midnight. And there appears to be a mid-level low closing off in the TX panhandle...that will swing through tomorrow with the deformation. So everything still looks on track...but the dry air is definitely fighting the N/W edge of this. Surface pressure has increased here since sunset...so the ridge is flexing. Still liking 4-6" up this way...but Metro and points SE may see closer to double digits.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 22:48:40 GMT -6
I know I shouldn't but I'm starting to get a bit skeptical on western counties getting much from this. I think the dry air really wasn't picked up by some of the models. Feel like its eating away at what folks west of Stl were suppose to get today. I hope I'm wrong. I know that the bigger push is tomorrow. But feel like that will be for folks on the east-side, south and southeast of STL. Not a chance. A wall of heavy snow is going to develop around day break over All of Northern Arkansas and move almost due North. Every piece of models have 8"+ all the way back to Columbia MO. Also the next piece overnight is coming in North of the first one. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 14, 2021 22:55:19 GMT -6
Can see two distinct vorts... one across the panhandle of Texas and the other coming up toward Tulsa  |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 22:55:21 GMT -6
I don't think everyone truly understands what's coming tomorrow.
The column is fully saturated with large scale ascent exploding for like 15000-25000 feet.
The DGZ is almost through the entire column.
We are going to have large cotton balls bring almost white out conditions for 5-6 hours tomorrow all the way back to Columbia MO.
Don't lose hope anyone.
Thus is doing be insane
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 22:57:36 GMT -6
No returns on radar over me.
But it's still snowing quite well with small flakes.
Lift brings out every ounce of moisture it can.
|
|
|
|
Post by TK on Feb 14, 2021 23:00:03 GMT -6
I don't think everyone truly understands what's coming tomorrow. The column is fully saturated with large scale ascent exploding for like 15000-25000 feet. The DGZ is almost through the entire column. We are going to have large cotton balls bring almost white out conditions for 5-6 hours tomorrow all the way back to Columbia MO. Don't lose hope anyone. Thus is doing be insane Tks Friv for keeping everyone off the ledge.... |
|
|
|
Post by ams3389 on Feb 14, 2021 23:02:00 GMT -6
Hope you’re right my man. Hoping for atleast 6 in Affton area I don't think everyone truly understands what's coming tomorrow. The column is fully saturated with large scale ascent exploding for like 15000-25000 feet. The DGZ is almost through the entire column. We are going to have large cotton balls bring almost white out conditions for 5-6 hours tomorrow all the way back to Columbia MO. Don't lose hope anyone. Thus is doing be insane |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 23:02:48 GMT -6
I don't think everyone truly understands what's coming tomorrow. The column is fully saturated with large scale ascent exploding for like 15000-25000 feet. The DGZ is almost through the entire column. We are going to have large cotton balls bring almost white out conditions for 5-6 hours tomorrow all the way back to Columbia MO. Don't lose hope anyone. Thus is doing be insane Tomorrow might be one of the most epic winter weather days in STL
Every model that has come out tonight has 0.5" QPF in the metro
The soundings show amazing snow growth potential with a huge DGZ and constant lift through the column
Ratios tomorrow could easily be 20:1 if not higher
And oh ya temperatures will be near zero all day
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 14, 2021 23:04:25 GMT -6
So you're saying there's a chance
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 23:07:52 GMT -6
So you're saying there's a chance I'm pushing my chips all in. No whammy's |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 23:08:37 GMT -6
I don't think everyone truly understands what's coming tomorrow. The column is fully saturated with large scale ascent exploding for like 15000-25000 feet. The DGZ is almost through the entire column. We are going to have large cotton balls bring almost white out conditions for 5-6 hours tomorrow all the way back to Columbia MO. Don't lose hope anyone. Thus is doing be insane Tomorrow might be one of the most epic winter weather days in STL
Every model that has come out tonight has 0.5" QPF in the metro
The soundings show amazing snow growth potential with a huge DGZ and constant lift through the column
Ratios tomorrow could easily be 20:1 if not higher
And oh ya temperatures will be near zero all day
It's truly remarkable. It's not shown but most of that falls in the first 4 hours of this 6 hour block. 0.30-0.35" qpf. Also the 2 hours right before this have 0.15" qpf. So if we get 0.50" qpf in 4-5 hours. That's about 8-10" in 4-5 hours. Going to be white out near blizzard conditions  |
|
|
|
Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 14, 2021 23:09:06 GMT -6
I love this blog and the positive contributors who help keep it going!!!
Your the man Friv!!! Bring on the snow!! Just got 3-4 days of firewood in a dry spot and a little extra under a tarp in the field...
Now the question is should I go sledding or fill my limit on rabbits(last day of the season) 1st... 🤷
|
|
