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Post by TK on Feb 15, 2021 8:15:47 GMT -6
NWS already talking about next storm- That is surprising they have us in bullseye given the uncertainty in models...  |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 15, 2021 8:19:12 GMT -6
Just posting for posterity. The 7Z NBM has 5.5" at the airport with 0.33" of liquid for an implied ratio of 16.5:1.
NBS TEXT BULLETIN - STATION KSTL
#
KSTL NBM V4.0 NBS GUIDANCE 2/15/2021 0700 UTC
DT /FEB 15 /FEB 16 /FEB 17 /FEB 18
UTC 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06
FHR 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71
TXN 8 1 16 6 22
XND 2 3 3 4 3
TMP 3 3 6 7 6 6 5 4 2 4 11 16 12 9 9 10 11 13 18 21 20 19 18
TSD 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4
DPT -5 -4 0 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 3 6 4 3 2 4 5 8 12 14 15 14 13
DSD 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3
SKY 90 88 91 89 88 86 69 71 71 52 58 34 31 59 78 89 94 89 91 88 89 89 88
SSD 8 7 7 9 8 7 24 17 22 26 27 34 36 26 16 7 6 6 3 4 8 6 6
WDR 36 36 1 35 35 34 33 31 31 31 30 32 7 9 9 8 9 10 10 8 5 4 3
WSP 11 11 11 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 6 7 7 7 7 7
WSD 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
GST 13 14 16 18 15 13 13 13 10 9 8 5 4 6 6 7 7 10 10 9 9 10 10
GSD 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 1 2
P06 51 89 42 1 0 0 0 24 12 18 28
P12 94 40 0 24 30
Q06 3 24 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 27 6 0 0 0
DUR 8 2 0 0 0
T03 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
T06 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1
T12 1 1 0 1 1
PZR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PSN 100100100100100100100100100100 95100 99100100100100100100100100100100
PPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S06 6 37 12 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 1
SLV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
I06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CIG 35 13 6 6 8 9 7 9 11-88 11-88-88-88 90 60 50 27 14 13 13 7 6
IFC 12 29 43 45 39 32 38 30 28 32 24 0 0 0 1 11 15 16 14 14 23 38 42
LCB 25 13 6 6 8 9 7 9 11 41 8 70 50 80 70 39 26 17 13 13 13 7 6
VIS 20 20 2 5 7 7 10 20 30 20 70100100100100 50 20 90100100 40 10 20
IFV 32 51 88 92 66 54 45 32 22 28 11 5 4 0 6 15 21 11 2 10 18 26 22
MHT 15 16 17 19 14 14 9 9 6 11 16 21 7 4 4 7 8 14 26 27 8 8 7
TWD 1 1 36 36 35 35 33 32 32 32 32 31 8 9 12 9 8 9 10 9 3 5 1
TWS 16 17 16 17 16 16 14 11 8 4 3 2 2 4 5 6 6 10 11 9 8 10 11
HID 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2
SOL 0 10 25 22 3 0 0 0 0 24 52 42 9 0 0 0 0 8 27 45 28 0 0
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sisu
Weather Weenie
Bourbon, MO
Posts: 38 
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Post by sisu on Feb 15, 2021 8:20:42 GMT -6
Snow has started up again in Bourbon. Steady snowfall,small flakes.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 15, 2021 8:20:57 GMT -6
Radar is starting to expand into the area.
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455
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Post by luvhockey on Feb 15, 2021 8:20:58 GMT -6
I only measure 1" of new snow this morning. My snow box had more a drift in it & varied depths than the protected area near the house. For the snow box do I measure highest & lowest, then average? That’s what I did. Drifting in my 5 gal bucket was from 1-2”. I figured 1.5” I watch your posts over the years and we are almost always the same. I’m pretty much due west of you. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 15, 2021 8:21:14 GMT -6
I measured 0.8" here in the St. Peters / Harvester area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2021 8:22:26 GMT -6
If I'm looking at this correctly Tulsa is reporting 4.2" of snow on 0.2" of precip yesterday. 21:1 ratio...definitely good reason to start estimates at 20:1 today I think. Im going 8-10 inches for the metro today. Every model has 0.4-0.5" of QPF. If ratios are high enough someone in the metro may see a foot but were going to need 25:1 ratios for that |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 15, 2021 8:24:13 GMT -6
I want to know if all the people who gave up on this winter and threw in the !Drying Cloth! a month ago have started preparing their dinner of crow.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2021 8:24:37 GMT -6
Radar looks great.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2021 8:25:04 GMT -6
I want to know if all the people who gave up on this winter and threw in the !Drying Cloth! a month ago have started preparing their dinner of crow. Hard to blame anyone for giving up on this winter in late Jan. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 15, 2021 8:28:20 GMT -6
Depends on where you’re at. Lol. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 15, 2021 8:29:50 GMT -6
Deformation snow has begun in Perryville and is already increasing in flake size and intensity. This is gonna be somethin!
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2021 8:30:15 GMT -6
Radar looks amazing for metro area. Im going woth an additional 6 inches in st.peters today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 8:30:21 GMT -6
Looking at radar to the S/SW it looks like areas along/SE of 44/70 are still prime for the heaviest snowfall today, but the whole region should get in on the deformation. Thinking 6-10" area wide is doable on top of what we've already got.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 15, 2021 8:30:43 GMT -6
Depends on where you’re at. Lol. I want the blob going through Memphis and just east |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2021 8:32:58 GMT -6
Light snow has begun in st.peters
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Post by packrat on Feb 15, 2021 8:35:33 GMT -6
Question for the group: I have a flight that is supposed to leave Lambert at 6 am tomorrow. If it stops snowing by this evening, what are my chances on that flight leaving on time?
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Post by TK on Feb 15, 2021 8:37:43 GMT -6
Question for the group: I have a flight that is supposed to leave Lambert at 6 am tomorrow. If it stops snowing by this evening, what are my chances on that flight leaving on time? I estimate 65% chance that your flight will be good or maybe delayed....It is a crap shoot though.... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 8:39:53 GMT -6
Question for the group: I have a flight that is supposed to leave Lambert at 6 am tomorrow. If it stops snowing by this evening, what are my chances on that flight leaving on time? Pretty good I would think...they will have most of the overnight hours to get things cleaned up out there. But delays are always possible when winter weather is strewn across the country, too. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Feb 15, 2021 8:41:34 GMT -6
cards what does high resolution NAM show for Wednesday
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 8:42:53 GMT -6
Looking at the latest short range models and trends, the heaviest snow should hit the Metro between 1-6pm. There may be several hours of 1"/hr+ snow rates later today.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 15, 2021 8:47:50 GMT -6
Light small flakes has started! I count 11 Cardinals out there.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2021 8:49:11 GMT -6
Looking at the latest short range models and trends, the heaviest snow should hit the Metro between 1-6pm. There may be several hours of 1"/hr+ snow rates later today. Combine that with blowing snow and it could be near whiteout conditions at times. Luckily today is a holiday so fewer people should be out and about |
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Post by REB on Feb 15, 2021 8:49:16 GMT -6
Question for the group: I have a flight that is supposed to leave Lambert at 6 am tomorrow. If it stops snowing by this evening, what are my chances on that flight leaving on time? Since the plane would have overnighted at Lambert the big question would be what kind of equipment is it and where are you going. |
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Post by REB on Feb 15, 2021 8:50:02 GMT -6
First batch shoveled.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 15, 2021 8:51:43 GMT -6
Been snowing here for about 10 minutes. Ready for round 2.
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Post by scmhack on Feb 15, 2021 8:52:25 GMT -6
Looking at the latest short range models and trends, the heaviest snow should hit the Metro between 1-6pm. There may be several hours of 1"/hr+ snow rates later today. Combine that with blowing snow and it could be near whiteout conditions at times. Luckily today is a holiday so fewer people should be out and about As one of those out n about working today. Please everyone else stay off the roads. They’re crap and only gonna get worse. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2021 8:52:54 GMT -6
cards what does high resolution NAM show for Wednesday Steady as she goes. All systems go. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 8:53:10 GMT -6
Looks like there's an Fgen band developing roughly along 44/70 with deeper moisture plowing into it from the south...should be some good snow rates developing within the next hour or so in the Metro. SPC mesoanalysis shows enhanced 500/700mb Fgen across that zone. That should tighten up with time as jet coupling develops with strong, deep lift moving in.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 15, 2021 8:53:53 GMT -6
1" in Northern Wildwood since last evening! It's going to get epic here soon. We all deserved this. This storm will be talked about for a long time and a case study for future Ungergrad, grad students in the coming years.
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