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Post by Tilawn on Feb 14, 2021 8:54:01 GMT -6
Sun is shining here just north of Marthasville.
New updates to be honest are not what I was hoping for at all. Maybe one day when I’m not doing snow removal I’ll be able to appreciate those amounts at these temps. I know we all love the snow but please remember about all of us that have to be out in this dangerous cold for extended periods of time this week.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 8:55:49 GMT -6
Wonder when they will pop the warning for the southeat 2/3 rds of the area Probably as soon as the euro confirms that the NAMs deeper evolution of the upper level energy/trough is legit. The NAM might be overdone but not that much. The biggest name development is the Pivot of the system that slows Eastward progression while the deformation zone RAGES |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 14, 2021 8:56:09 GMT -6
Running through the 3 WV loops on satellite, zoomed in. That is some chaotic stuff going on in the 4 corner region. There are vortices all over. Looks like the main monster is in southern NM, but that could be an 'illusion' because of the mountainous terrain. Hopefully, this will be extremely fun to watch unfold.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 8:57:34 GMT -6
i'm up. Lol. Great trends!
Snowing lightly here, with lots of clouds..some blue sky and the sun shining lol.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Feb 14, 2021 8:58:28 GMT -6
When is the public forecast changing? Winter Storm Warning?
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Feb 14, 2021 9:00:53 GMT -6
Wow wole up this morning this is incredible. Do we still think big storm on Wedneday also.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:00:56 GMT -6
Running through the 3 WV loops on satellite, zoomed in. That is some chaotic stuff going on in the 4 corner region. There are vortices all over. Looks like the main monster is in southern NM, but that could be an 'illusion' because of the mountainous terrain. Hopefully, this will be extremely fun to watch unfold. The nam closes off at H5 over SW Missouri. Normally this would be a bad track for us. But this system is stacked much differently because of the trough evolution.  long poems by rabindranath tagore |
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Post by freezyfree on Feb 14, 2021 9:04:26 GMT -6
Someone please explain to me why we aren’t under a WSW?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 9:09:06 GMT -6
The 300/500mb depiction on the NAM is textbook with a compact, negatively tilted trof and backbuilding, cyclonic "fishhook" outbound jet across the Lakes. As you'd expect, it pulls the deformation well NW of where previous runs had it with heavy snow lasting into tomorrow evening. Beautiful.
Having the NAM in agreement with the hi-res models and the new GFS gives a lot of confidence in warning criteria(6"+) snowfall across much if not the entire region.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:12:01 GMT -6
Someone please explain to me why we aren’t under a WSW? Because you have to have CONDENSUS when a big change this late in the GAME happens... Everyone please don't fret over watches and warnings. We have no affect on them. It's a trivial discussion when the only EVIDENCE of a HUGE OUTCOME we can SEE OURSELVES. THE RGEM IS WETTER. But not like the nam. So please give the NWS a break for now  short poem on my country |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2021 9:12:21 GMT -6
Someone post the RGEM when it comes out
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 9:12:59 GMT -6
Someone please explain to me why we aren’t under a WSW? Because up until the latest runs, 6+" of snow wasn't a slam dunk because the event didn't include more than a swipe from the second wave. |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Feb 14, 2021 9:13:21 GMT -6
-2 and a gelled up diesel this morning.......fortunately I learned my lesson. I keep Diesel 911 in the garage and in the truck now. This morning I was able to keep it running and just add it to the tank. Last time I had to pull filters and fill them with Diesel 911.....that is not fun in zero temps.
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 9:15:39 GMT -6
And I completely agree with Friv about watches and warnings. I've always thought the excitement over them was a little overblown. The general public gets most of their info from the local mets, and they can be planting the seeds well before the NWS makes it official.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 14, 2021 9:16:35 GMT -6
Still talking waves right? 3 to 5 today/tonight? Additional kaboom tomorrow? And more kaboom Wednesday?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 9:18:14 GMT -6
Still talking waves right? 3 to 5 today/tonight? Additional kaboom tomorrow? And more kaboom Wednesday? Wave 1 tonight with maybe a lull late tonight/tomorrow morning before the deformation zone gets cranking tomorrow
Separate system for the midweek
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 9:18:22 GMT -6
-2 and a gelled up diesel this morning.......fortunately I learned my lesson. I keep Diesel 911 in the garage and in the truck now. This morning I was able to keep it running and just add it to the tank. Last time I had to pull filters and fill them with Diesel 911.....that is not fun in zero temps. I'm hoping I can get the tractor going if needed...this past Christmas it gelled up and I had to put a heat lamp and oil pan heater on it to get it to fire. Luckily, I bought a car so I'm not relying on the diesel truck to get me to work! |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 9:20:12 GMT -6
NAM text output for KSAR goes from 0.27 to 0.73 between hours 30-36.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:20:53 GMT -6
Still talking waves right? 3 to 5 today/tonight? Additional kaboom tomorrow? And more kaboom Wednesday? Yeah 3-4" tonight. A WALL OF SNOW WILL BLOW UP COMING UP 44. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAYBE A SMALL BREAK THEN A SMALLER WEAKER BLOB OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 4-5" FROM THAT. A BREAK AT SUNRISE THEN 5-6 HOURS OF BLISS. COULD BE ANOTHER 2-8" PENDING HOW IT EVOLVES. |
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Feb 14, 2021 9:22:42 GMT -6
Is a Blizzard Warning possible?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:22:50 GMT -6
NAM text output for KSAR goes from 0.27 to 0.73 between hours 30-36. With 20-1 ratios maybe even better That's almost ONE FOOT. ON TOP OF THE 4-5" YOU ALREADY RECEIVED. SO TAKING THE NAM VERBATIM OUR AREA GETS 12-16". |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 9:24:46 GMT -6
Is a Blizzard Warning possible? No, for a blizzard you need either sustained or winds gusting to 35mph for 3 hours or more. Wind gust tomorrow look to top out at 30mph |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 9:25:21 GMT -6
RGEM is ~8"
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Post by eurekakim on Feb 14, 2021 9:25:24 GMT -6
I’m working until 730pm tonite- will I be dealing with this on my way home? Have had a couple white knuckle drives at night over the past week, just mentally need to prepare. 😁
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 9:27:01 GMT -6
Is a Blizzard Warning possible? Highly unlikely. Wind speeds will be high enough for drifting, but I doubt we get gusts strong enough to create white out conditions. I'm expecting an upgrade to WSW with the afternoon update given recent trends, though. |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 9:27:19 GMT -6
Let's just hope, whether or not it's a real thing, that we don't complain about the south "stealing our moisture". The saving grace this time is that it likely isn't going to take a lot to produce a lot.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:27:27 GMT -6
I’m working until 730pm tonite- will I be dealing with this on my way home? Have had a couple white knuckle drives at night over the past week, just mentally need to prepare. 😁 YES... THIS IS FOR EVERYONE: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL REACH THE IMMEDIATE METRO AROUND 4PM AND PRESS INTO SW IL BY 6PM. ROADS WILL IMMEDIATELY BECOME DANGEROUS. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:28:08 GMT -6
Let's just hope, whether or not it's a real thing, that we don't complain about the south "stealing our moisture". The saving grace this time is that it likely isn't going to take a lot to produce a lot. That is not a concern here. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2021 9:29:02 GMT -6
How does Wednesday night storm look from last night and today anyone?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:30:51 GMT -6
How does Wednesday night storm look from last night and today anyone? Two days of waves of snow. Probably THREE WAVES... MAYBE 1-2" WAVE ONE 1" WAVE TWO 3-7" LAST WAVE THAT IS JUST A VERY EARLY SPECULATING MODEL WORSHIPPING GUESS. The RGEM AND NAM BOTH HAVE SNOW PUSHING INTO THE METRO AFTER HOUR 72 |
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