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Post by ElburnDave on Feb 14, 2021 9:36:05 GMT -6
Sun is shining here just north of Marthasville. New updates to be honest are not what I was hoping for at all. Maybe one day when I’m not doing snow removal I’ll be able to appreciate those amounts at these temps. I know we all love the snow but please remember about all of us that have to be out in this dangerous cold for extended periods of time this week. Get some rest. Those long-duration events are brutal on snow removal guys. Most people don't realize.. |
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Post by eurekakim on Feb 14, 2021 9:39:25 GMT -6
I’m working until 730pm tonite- will I be dealing with this on my way home? Have had a couple white knuckle drives at night over the past week, just mentally need to prepare. 😁 YES... THIS IS FOR EVERYONE: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL REACH THE IMMEDIATE METRO AROUND 4PM AND PRESS INTO SW IL BY 6PM. ROADS WILL IMMEDIATELY BECOME DANGEROUS. Thanks Friv! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:39:30 GMT -6
The icon has 4-5 NW along 70..upwards of 6" along the Missouri River into STL.
SE of 44 in no 6-7" SE of 64 I'm IL 8-12"
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:43:58 GMT -6
Operational GFS has 7-10" SW IL 6-8" SE MO.
4-6" Along 70 West of STL
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:45:23 GMT -6
Operational GFS has 7-10" SW IL 6-8" SE MO. 4-6" Along 70 West of STL NEW GFS CLOSES OFF IN SE MO PARTY TIME Going to be EPIC |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 9:50:10 GMT -6
GFS already has snow moving in Tuesday night from storm 2
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 9:50:15 GMT -6
This could be one of the more impressive snowstorms in STL history considering the arctic air in place. I didn't we'd see a 2014 type system again for a long time...this one might rival it
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Post by grizzlebeard on Feb 14, 2021 9:50:53 GMT -6
Don't some of the models lose their reliability the closer we get to an event? And aren't others more reliable? Could someone please update the board on which models should be looked at a little closer and which ones should be discounted based on the fact we are under 12 hours from snowflakes flying?
Thanks, guys. Be careful everyone!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:51:50 GMT -6
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 14, 2021 9:56:31 GMT -6
Friv, you keep that good news coming.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 9:56:58 GMT -6
QPF is 0.5" or more over the entire area. Crush job |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 14, 2021 9:57:32 GMT -6
Friv we seem to be in the perfect spot......what could go wrong lol
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Post by weatherj on Feb 14, 2021 9:59:24 GMT -6
Friv we seem to be in the perfect spot......what could go wrong lol The entire viewing area is in moderate to heavy accumulations now on all runs, but yes...it seems to really focus on SE MO/ S IL for the bullseye on all models thus far. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 9:59:26 GMT -6
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS 2-4" ALONG 70
AND 4-8" 44/64 SOUTH
MID WEEK
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 10:01:02 GMT -6
My gas engine poured black smoke this mornong like a diesel lol
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 14, 2021 10:01:56 GMT -6
I don't want to jinx it, but with an 850mb low passing through/near the bootheel I still think southerners (Farmington et al) are in a really good spot with this one.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 10:05:27 GMT -6
I don't want to jinx it, but with an 850mb low passing through/near the bootheel I still think southerners (Farmington et al) are in a really good spot with this one. They are. The max band will be over the SE 1/3rd. 10-12" I think JEFFERSON COUNTY TO MASCOUTAH IL WILL SEE 8-10" UNION TO EDWARDSVILLE 6-8" ALONG 70 NEAR 8" IN ST CHARLES COUNTY. 6-7" BY WENZTVILLE. THAT'S MY MY BEST GUESS. BUT IT COULD EASILY END UP 8-14" FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS. RATIOS IN 2014 WERE 20-1. SHOULD BE LIKE THAT OR BETTER. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 10:07:20 GMT -6
I don't want to jinx it, but with an 850mb low passing through/near the bootheel I still think southerners (Farmington et al) are in a really good spot with this one. We're all in a really good spot...the 500/700mb features are nearly perfect for the entire region and the jet profile has trended much better for tomorrow. Good trends all around! |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 14, 2021 10:08:03 GMT -6
Too good to be true!!!! Unreal!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 10:09:49 GMT -6
new gfs is definitely south for midweek, still snows, but not as much
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 10:09:55 GMT -6
MID WEEK ON THE PARAGFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED.
1-3" NORTH OF 70.
2-5" BETWEEN 44/70.
5-8" JUST SOUTH OF 44/64.
8-10 SE 1/3RD
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 10:12:05 GMT -6
The GFSv16 is still dropping several inches of snow across most of the area with the mid-week system. Compared to last nights run it looks more positively tilted with the trough which keeps the system alittle further SE. Again, this is the mid-week system, not today's and tomorrows
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 10:13:18 GMT -6
I'm going to let 4-6" for the metro ride with more SE...possibly 10"+ across the SE 1/3rd. There's potential for more if high SLRs verify...but I don't want to jump on those big totals quite yet until I see this thing wrapping up like the NAM and other amplified models show. It's certainly possible the Metro gets double digit snowfall if they verify with the healthy deformation tomorrow.
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Post by fox2weatherfan on Feb 14, 2021 10:13:40 GMT -6
I have been following since the epic ice storm, I believe that was 2006. Very informative and sometimes comical. Just wanted to say hi and I really enjoy reading all the posts.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2021 10:14:00 GMT -6
The GFSv16 is still dropping several inches of snow across most of the area with the mid-week system. Compared to last nights run it looks more positively tilted with the trough which keeps the system alittle further SE. Again, this is the mid-week system, not today's and tomorrows Looks like the gfsv16 and euro are meeting in the middle for that one |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 10:17:06 GMT -6
15z rap more of the 4 to 6. Does not move as far northwest
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 10:19:54 GMT -6
OMG! Just got up. Ummmm, Happy Valentine's Day.
Wth Friv?!?! Its like this excitment has been bottled up for awhile and all the sudden it's like Mount Saint Helen's in here.
Your girlfriend is probably like,"well I guess Valentine's Day is off!" LOL!!!
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 10:22:53 GMT -6
Gem looks great
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 10:23:39 GMT -6
I'm hoping we get more then 2-5 up here! Both storms look great for the southern half though.
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Post by REB on Feb 14, 2021 10:26:13 GMT -6
It was -1.9* here this morning. The power flickered on and off between 5 and 6 a.m. Not good in these kinds of temps.
Should I get all of the snow gear out? Boots, snow bibs....etc? I had to use the balaclava this morning filling the feeders and bird bath.
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