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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 28, 2021 11:58:43 GMT -6
A day I’ll never forget. It’s all fun and games until you see power flashes on the horizon and people you know have their houses wiped off the face of the earth.
Thanks again to Chris for his tracking and support at the scene. I know that had a major impact on you as you were one of the first on the scene and probably to see what you certainly didn’t want to see there on 55.
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 28, 2021 14:24:42 GMT -6
Looks like a bit of a noisy night south of I-44 in MO, and along and south of I-64 in Illinois overnight with more showers and storms tomorrow afternoon between 1-4PM from Springfield, IL to St. Louis, into Salem, MO and points east. Might be some hailers too according to the NWS especially southeast of town. We did get some hail last night in High Ridge with the first heavy cell in the 2:00a-2:30a range. Lasted about 5 minutes. Wasn't enough to get me out of bed to post something. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 28, 2021 15:20:13 GMT -6
Loved listening to the rain last night going to sleep.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 28, 2021 16:40:40 GMT -6
I went through archives of tornado watches for St. Louis all the way back to 2006.
From 2006 through 2011 we averaged almost 9 tornado watch days per year.
Since 2012 we've averaged just 3 tornado watch days per year.
So what's going on here? Well first I suspect forecasting has gotten a little better such that we get less busts (i.e. less unnecessary tornado watches). But I think more significant is we've just been in an era of less severe weather which can been seen in the fact that on an inflation adjusted basis most of the years in the last decade fall below the average in tornado reports. In addition some recent research has noted a decrease in lightning from the detection network as well as increased CIN and less CAPE east of the Rockies.
Now I've seen a lot hype about the upcoming severe weather season. Some even with comparisons to 2011. I would expect above normal severe weather this year given the ongoing La Nina which is backed up by some limited studies, but I would also take some of the hype with a grain of salt. Also the severe drought in the southwest elevated mixed layer source region is a bit of a wild card in my opinion with the potential for being more detrimental than favorable; though I haven't seen any research on the topic and I really have no opinion either way.
Just my wild guestimate but I'd put the equal chances threshold at about 5 tornado watch days here St. Louis for the year. Much higher than the recent 9 year average, but also much lower than the previous era average.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 28, 2021 16:46:04 GMT -6
Another little tornado tidbit. The longest gap between EF5 tornadoes here in the US is 8 years 1 day (1999-2007).
If we make it to May 22 I believe this would become the longest gap. The last EF5 being Moore OK May 20 2013.
Hopefully we see that gap continue to grow...
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 28, 2021 21:36:48 GMT -6
Another Sign that spring is around the corner. Steinberg Ice Ring is closed for the season.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 1, 2021 9:47:15 GMT -6
Another Sign that spring is around the corner. Steinberg Ice Ring is closed for the season. 12h between posts is a better indication. |
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 1, 2021 12:48:43 GMT -6
Maddog, nothing to talk about! No weather, no heat, no cold, no storms! Hoping the ground dries out a bit!
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 1, 2021 12:58:18 GMT -6
Hearing those sirens in the middle of a pandemic has a bit of a ominous feel to it.
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Post by amstilost on Mar 2, 2021 6:27:58 GMT -6
25* 7 miles west of De Soto and 17 hours between posts. Wow
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 2, 2021 7:00:40 GMT -6
Hints of another cold outbreak are coming mid-month
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 2, 2021 7:23:52 GMT -6
Where’s Chris in the morning? I sure miss seeing him in the mornings when he’s gone!
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Post by REB on Mar 2, 2021 8:27:00 GMT -6
Where’s Chris in the morning? I sure miss seeing him in the mornings when he’s gone! He’s off all week. |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 2, 2021 8:33:05 GMT -6
MJO is forecast to slide through the warm phases into phases 1,2, and 3- based off GFS. EPO is forecasted by Euro to tank mid-month. I’d say a winter storm is likely in the area March 15-20th.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2021 9:57:31 GMT -6
Looks like the next interesting weather for us will be around the 10th with a possible severe episode
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Post by dschreib on Mar 2, 2021 10:02:34 GMT -6
Somebody at the NWS is having a bad day...
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Post by jeepers on Mar 2, 2021 10:02:39 GMT -6
Tornado sirens?
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Post by dschreib on Mar 2, 2021 10:04:19 GMT -6
I've never gotten the phone alert on test day before.
Maybe that's a new thing.
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Post by jeepers on Mar 2, 2021 10:06:10 GMT -6
STL Emergency Management downtown activates sirens, or at least that was true when I moved here. So who butt dialed the county?
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Post by dschreib on Mar 2, 2021 10:07:17 GMT -6
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 2, 2021 10:09:58 GMT -6
STL Emergency Management downtown activates sirens, or at least that was true when I moved here. So who butt dialed the county? It was another Test today. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 2, 2021 10:12:17 GMT -6
Looks like they forgot to include "This is only a test"  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2021 10:13:22 GMT -6
Ya including a disclaimer this is only a test might of been wise
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Post by jeepers on Mar 2, 2021 10:13:54 GMT -6
Same deal on television.
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 2, 2021 10:22:10 GMT -6
Ya they did say they would do a live test, but did forget to issue the test part lol. Even the radar lit up in red.
Now in all fairness it is a beautiful day and not a cloud, and 45 degrees at the moment. Most folks should understand its not real.
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 2, 2021 10:25:44 GMT -6
Who else feels the sirens going off during a global pandemic has a ominous doomsday feel to it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2021 10:26:31 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Mar 2, 2021 11:01:50 GMT -6
Ya including a disclaimer this is only a test might of been wise It stated in on the weather radio--just not on the phone app. I laughed when it came across, because...well...it's a pretty gorgeous day outside. If a monster wedge drops out of the sky today, only Katfan would be happy about it. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2021 11:41:23 GMT -6
The test warning said test. It said test when it left the NWS. It was never supposed to trigger phones and WEA (weather emergency alert) system.
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Post by dschreib on Mar 2, 2021 11:53:04 GMT -6
The test warning said test. It said test when it left the NWS. It was never supposed to trigger phones and WEA (weather emergency alert) system. Help us--or at least me--out with the logistics. When the local office issues a warning in an actual situation, does it normally go straight out to the WEA, or does it go to OKC or somewhere first? |
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