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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 12:03:44 GMT -6
Euro is really weak on the first wave this evening.
Hopefully it's wrong.
It basically leaves us with 1" before midnight
It's a little slower on lifting the upper low out of the bayou.
But still produces
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 12:04:40 GMT -6
Gotta be quick  |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 14, 2021 12:05:50 GMT -6
That's beautiful! I did notice there's still a donut hole around STL as the color changes upwards, and then it fills in  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 14, 2021 12:06:40 GMT -6
Gotta be quick One of these days you're going to beat him and we're all going to wonder what happened to 920. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 14, 2021 12:07:26 GMT -6
In three minutes the Euro went from "all systems go" to petering out the first wave. Ugh these twists and turns!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 12:13:54 GMT -6
In three minutes the Euro went from "all systems go" to petering out the first wave. Ugh these twists and turns! Well you can see snow man and snow storms graphics... It still drops warning level snow |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 12:16:02 GMT -6
Euro is really weak on the first wave this evening. Hopefully it's wrong. It basically leaves us with 1" before midnight It's a little slower on lifting the upper low out of the bayou. But still produces The bulk of its snowfall tonight looks to fall after midnight
Overall the QPF field for the system looks as good as it ever has
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Post by weatherj on Feb 14, 2021 12:17:07 GMT -6
It seems like the UKMET/EURO keep it the furthest SE and all the others are further NW. All models are still a warning level snowfall though. The consensus still puts E MO and SW IL in the prime zone for max potential accumulations.
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Post by scmhack on Feb 14, 2021 12:24:21 GMT -6
This thing is about to eject out of el paso
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 12:26:16 GMT -6
Winds are gusting well over 20mph here...not getting much blowing or drifting due to the grass still poking through a bit but once we get fresh powder on top it's going to be blowing and drifting all over the place.
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geo29
Weather Weenie
Posts: 10 
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Post by geo29 on Feb 14, 2021 12:28:36 GMT -6
I don’t get the warning stuff. It’s 0 degrees out and accumulating snow is being called for. Do you really need somebody to tell you to be careful with that? Seems silly It does seem silly to a group of people who pay attention to the weather, but there are lot of people—my twenty-something son included— who do not know what’s coming until they get a notification. A lot of people will make plans and go out and about without a care in the world and then be shocked when conditions deteriorate. Well that’s on them. Their obliviousness is their problem not the NWS’s. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 14, 2021 12:32:13 GMT -6
13* and sunshine...meltfest off of the outbuilding roof...hopefully the door does not get iced closed 7 miles west of De Soto.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Feb 14, 2021 12:32:31 GMT -6
Reed Timmer is live down in OKC with what will be coming this way
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 12:34:53 GMT -6
I am holding at 5 now that the clouds came in. Might be about all she does today. What an impressive airmass. Would not be suprised if its 0 or below for a good part of this snow tonight. This just doesn't happen this far south
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 12:37:48 GMT -6
Stupid people aside...when it looks increasingly likely that amounts will approach or potentially exceed warning criteria for much of the area with significant blowing and drifting potential...and the danger of extreme wind chills thrown in...an upgrade to a warning seems pretty prudent to me. An advisory suggests a fairly low end, "nuisance" event...which this is not likely to be. This is basically 2014 all over again according to most recent model runs...not your "run of the mill" storm for the region.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 14, 2021 12:41:33 GMT -6
Reed Timmer is live down in OKC with what will be coming this way Let's just keep Jim Cantore from setting foot in STL.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 12:44:13 GMT -6
You don't see this every day...if ever. The entirety of TX, OK and AR are 100% under WSW.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2021 12:45:40 GMT -6
NWS just posted they are increasing their forecast #s in our chatroom. I asked if that means an upgrade is coming... no answer... but I suspect yes
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 12:47:16 GMT -6
NWS just posted they are increasing their forecast #s in our chatroom. I asked if that means an upgrade is coming... no answer... but I suspect yes Send me the link to the chat room  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 12:49:36 GMT -6
The main reason for the NWS is to protect life and property. A significant winter storm can absolutley kill people as we see in this country about every year, one way or another. Warning people to the dangers of it is a necessity. General public may or may not heed the warnings, but that's up to them. We have seen over the last year what some adults think of danger to themselves and others.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 14, 2021 12:51:21 GMT -6
Where the hell is the FRIV-O-METER? Who had it last? I know, it’s been so long ago since we got to use it.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 14, 2021 12:51:25 GMT -6
FYI, if you accidentally click on the 384 12Z total ice accumulation you will at least be lead to believe winter is far from over...so a friend told me at least
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 12:53:08 GMT -6
Yeah I want a link too. The looks on NWS personnel when a bunch of yahoos enter the chatroom.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2021 12:55:16 GMT -6
My thoughts are the best course here is to conservative approach increasing the forecast totals. I think 4 to 8 is reasonable for the metro... with more to the east/southeast... of 6 to 10.
I agree... a WARNING is needed and likely to be issued onece they do their required inhouse discussions with other offices/etc....based on higher totals and extreme cold and wind. Putting this in the same category with the 1-2 little guys we've had this season (all advisories) really doesn't do the anomolous pattern and event justice.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2021 12:56:36 GMT -6
Folks... you need to understand. They actually have to ANALYZE the data... not just jump on the QPF outputs. Then they have to coordinate with surrounding offices where the lines will go between advisories and warnings...etc. So we don't end up with one county left all alone without a warning.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 13:02:22 GMT -6
Folks... you need to understand. They actually have to ANALYZE the data... not just jump on the QPF outputs. Then they have to coordinate with surrounding offices where the lines will go between advisories and warnings...etc. So we don't end up with one county left all alone without a warning. Friv should be in charge of the Warning desk. |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 14, 2021 13:04:19 GMT -6
@chris are you planning to do alive stream like you have done for several storms in the past? Would certainly get lots of viewers if/after the warnings go up....and I just love geeking out with all the analysis you provide on those that you just dont have time for on air
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 13:05:48 GMT -6
I think an argument can be made that the broad model consensus QPF is now close to 0.4". If we assume 15:1 ratios that would support a forecast of 4-8".
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 13:08:43 GMT -6
18Z HRRR might be looking better for tonight. Still early in the run, but looks a bit more potent than previous runs.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 13:09:04 GMT -6
Radar looking good down near SGF with a station just south of there reporting 3/4mi vis.
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