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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:09:38 GMT -6
Folks... you need to understand. They actually have to ANALYZE the data... not just jump on the QPF outputs. Then they have to coordinate with surrounding offices where the lines will go between advisories and warnings...etc. So we don't end up with one county left all alone without a warning. Friv should be in charge of the Warning desk. Most of the time I have been conservative about things but considering the fact that it's so cold so windy... Whether we get 4, 8, or 12 inches of fresh powder. The outdoor situation is going to be dangerous period. This is a life threatening situation. I'd bet over 100,000 people live in the area are either homeless or do not have proper heating. Awful. At least many of the city streets downtown have hot steam seeping out of the sewer grats... Its literally saving lives. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 13:10:08 GMT -6
Really hoping it holds off until at least 10PM. Gotta work again tonight from 4 to 10PM. Gonna be close but it looks like things get ripping around Midnight or so.
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Post by scmhack on Feb 14, 2021 13:10:13 GMT -6
Radar looking good down near SGF with a station just south of there reporting 3/4mi vis. Was just looking at the same thing. Looking super robust. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 13:10:20 GMT -6
The airport is up to 5.6" on the year. They reported a snow depth of 1" this morning so I will not personally classify this as a snow-on-snow event.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 14, 2021 13:10:30 GMT -6
You don't see this every day...if ever. The entirety of TX, OK and AR are 100% under WSW.  The geographic impact is something I can't recall. |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 13:10:42 GMT -6
Seems like a much later start time? 9p or so for immediate metro?
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 14, 2021 13:11:26 GMT -6
NWS has scheduled a conference call for 4pm due to increasing forecast of snow amounts
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 13:13:39 GMT -6
NWS has scheduled a conference call for 4pm due to increasing forecast of snow amounts Can you ask them to move it back 30 mins? I can’t make it then. Ha |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 13:14:33 GMT -6
I'm thinking it should be snowing pretty good in the Metro around 6pm...definitely by 8.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 14, 2021 13:14:50 GMT -6
Folks... you need to understand. They actually have to ANALYZE the data... not just jump on the QPF outputs. Then they have to coordinate with surrounding offices where the lines will go between advisories and warnings...etc. So we don't end up with one county left all alone without a warning. Friv should be in charge of the Warning desk. This made me laugh out loud |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 13:16:13 GMT -6
15Z SREF mean dropped to 5.9".
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 13:17:30 GMT -6
Friv should be in charge of the Warning desk. This made me laugh out loud I do agree with the dangerous side of storms like this and the need to alert the public. It’s an important part of their responsibility in tandem with local TV and radio. In addition, I think their tiers of warnings is the criteria used for opening shelters? Life and death no doubt. |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 13:18:37 GMT -6
15Z SREF mean dropped to 5.9". I was waiting for that update. Hmmm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 13:20:53 GMT -6
15Z SREF mean dropped to 5.9". More importantly how many dudes are there |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2021 13:22:37 GMT -6
What was it?
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sisu
Weather Weenie
Bourbon, MO
Posts: 38 
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Post by sisu on Feb 14, 2021 13:23:59 GMT -6
Stupid people aside...when it looks increasingly likely that amounts will approach or potentially exceed warning criteria for much of the area with significant blowing and drifting potential...and the danger of extreme wind chills thrown in...an upgrade to a warning seems pretty prudent to me. An advisory suggests a fairly low end, "nuisance" event...which this is not likely to be. This is basically 2014 all over again according to most recent model runs...not your "run of the mill" storm for the region. I agree with this....My son is a nurse, working a lot (seven twelves last week, six twelves this week) - COVID testing, mass vaccination events, and hospital float pool; and three classes toward his RN bridge program. His focus right now is to eat healthy, rest, study, and take care of himself for the sake of his performance at work for his patients, and to keep his own immune system in good shape. This morning I let him know that things are coming together for a much more significant event that could affect him being able to get home from the hospital tomorrow night. If I didn't notify him, a warning would alert him with a notification on his phone, but an advisory would be considered more of the usual for the last couple of weeks (wind chill, light snow, etc.). He's far from stupid, he's swamped and doesn't have free time like I do. I am sure there are a lot of people like him out there that might need something like a warning to get their attention. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 13:25:30 GMT -6
15Z SREF mean dropped to 5.9". More importantly how many dudes are there 6 including 2 studs where a stud is defined as >= 12" |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:28:47 GMT -6
Really hoping it holds off until at least 10PM. Gotta work again tonight from 4 to 10PM. Gonna be close but it looks like things get ripping around Midnight or so. Which schmucks do you work at? How long have you been there? I worked at schmucks in 2002 when I was 19. I was there January to September 1st. It is a classy company to work for. The built in Union raises let guys become 20-30 year employees and make a decent living. My mother and I are estranged because she blocked me out when I was at active recovering drug addict. But she is a manager in the seafood department and went from $10.25 an hour to $16.50. That was in 2015 by 2018 she was making 18.25$. So they do take care of their own. Anyways I go to all the schnucks in Belleville and Swansea. So I've probably seen you. |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Feb 14, 2021 13:30:56 GMT -6
Schrapnel I believe was the creator of the Friv-O-Meter Where the hell is the FRIV-O-METER? Who had it last? I know, it’s been so long ago since we got to use it. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2021 13:34:40 GMT -6
This is what I posted to Facebook for the "general public" a little bit ago...
***MAJOR WINTER STORM ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY***
The latest data continues to point to a major winter storm for the area. The combination of significant snow and extreme cold is one we rarely... if ever.. see in St. Louis. This will be a very dry snow too which will easily get blown around in gusty winds to produce considerable blowing and drifting. Travel will become quite challenging tonight into Monday morning and any travel... especially into rural areas during the storm is discouraged because of the risk posed by both cold and snow.
The latest data suggest the original forecast of 3 to 6 inches was as a good starting point... but now as the system pullsbout of the Rocky Mountains, we are getting a better look at the details.. and it does appear that many spots will end up closer to 6 inches... if not a little more. For that reason... I am going to slide my forecast up a notch to 4 to 8 inches... this is for the entire viewing area... so need need to ask for your own city by city forecasts. Time to get some rest. It is going to be a looooong week.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:38:13 GMT -6
18Z HRRR Snow goes widespread over us between 5-8pm and snows into the very early morning Then a short break then the deformation zone hits most of us  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2021 13:39:08 GMT -6
More importantly how many dudes are there 6 including 2 studs where a stud is defined as >= 12" The mean of the means of the past few runs though is hovering right around 6"... with a liquid equivalent of 0.35 or so. Unless there is a precipitous drop... in any future runs... I think the usefullness of the SREF is waning. We are getting pretty much to nowcast time. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:39:45 GMT -6
The 18Z nam is about to start running....
Please be a BOMBOGENESIS
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 14, 2021 13:40:34 GMT -6
Have had steady flurries for about 10 minutes.....light returns on radar...... this cold air just wrings out the moisture
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2021 13:40:59 GMT -6
Freakin' beautiful.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:44:32 GMT -6
It does the models are dropping really good qpf with what normally would be weak radar returns.
It's on all the models like that with this.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 13:45:48 GMT -6
Windchill warning may be coming. Springfieldbjust putnthe entire area of theirs under one. Woth a few degrees below zero tonight and snow it could be deadly out there
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:46:13 GMT -6
18Z nam coming in weaker and flatter with the first wave.
Ugh
It's really good for 44/64 to the South with wave one. Cut off at 70.
Man it's really messed up how much flatter it is
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 13:46:28 GMT -6
Really hoping it holds off until at least 10PM. Gotta work again tonight from 4 to 10PM. Gonna be close but it looks like things get ripping around Midnight or so. Which schmucks do you work at? How long have you been there? I worked at schmucks in 2002 when I was 19. I was there January to September 1st. It is a classy company to work for. The built in Union raises let guys become 20-30 year employees and make a decent living. My mother and I are estranged because she blocked me out when I was at active recovering drug addict. But she is a manager in the seafood department and went from $10.25 an hour to $16.50. That was in 2015 by 2018 she was making 18.25$. So they do take care of their own. Anyways I go to all the schnucks in Belleville and Swansea. So I've probably seen you. Belleville West, Country Club Plaza next to Walgreens and NAPA, Skyview Drive-In. Managers are Rick and Tim [ Not to be confused with Rick and Morty  ] They're all nice as long as you don't get on their bad side, in other words do your job, arrive on time, and don't slack off. Union contracts are punishing for new employees as they lock us at minimum wage starting out or just about a dime above it with 25-35 cent increases every 1040 hours worked at least for Checkers and Baggers. Insurance is great, if you can qualify for it, which I can't due to lack of sufficient hours. Luckily have a Medicare Advantage Plan being on Disability for Autism/Asperger's. So the low pay actually doesn't bother me much right now as being disabled means I can't make so much a month or greater otherwise I risk losing my benefits due to Substantial Gainful Activity (SGA). For someone needing to make a living, get into a department or manager roll quickly to make a livable income. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 14, 2021 13:47:13 GMT -6
Wxguy the store is insane. Just left. Good luck
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] They're all nice as long as you don't get on their bad side, in other words do your job, arrive on time, and don't slack off. Union contracts are punishing for new employees as they lock us at minimum wage starting out or just about a dime above it with 25-35 cent increases every 1040 hours worked at least for Checkers and Baggers. Insurance is great, if you can qualify for it, which I can't due to lack of sufficient hours. Luckily have a Medicare Advantage Plan being on Disability for Autism/Asperger's. So the low pay actually doesn't bother me much right now as being disabled means I can't make so much a month or greater otherwise I risk losing my benefits due to Substantial Gainful Activity (SGA). For someone needing to make a living, get into a department or manager roll quickly to make a livable income.