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Post by landscaper on Mar 14, 2021 13:01:13 GMT -6
It looks like some areas around Denver have seen some good snow this afternoon, it really picked up the last few hours
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 14, 2021 13:58:48 GMT -6
Watching a live stream from Cheyenne. They've broken the two day record snowfall total. youtu.be/HdR8jFcDEHY |
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 14, 2021 16:06:41 GMT -6
Nightmarish out here
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2021 16:14:38 GMT -6
I didn't look more closely until Chris said something. Along an occluded front (albeit with warm front characteristics) isn't really where I'd bother looking into details for severe weather. But latest GFS is showing a zone of positive EHI (combination of instability and helicity) along the front mid to late afternoon in central to east MO. GFS/NAM also indicating that some sort of meso-low may move along the boundary possibly acting a trigger for storms. Long range HRRR has been generating convection in this zone as well. This probably only warrants a marginal risk at most come tomorrow GFS is right and probably wouldn't even trigger a watch, but I can see a mini-supercell or two catching people off guard.   |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 14, 2021 16:21:58 GMT -6
as of several hours ago DIA reported 19.1". Looks like 2 feet will happen No bust there
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 14, 2021 16:34:09 GMT -6
I didn't look more closely until Chris said something. Along an occluded front (albeit with warm front characteristics) isn't really where I'd bother looking into details for severe weather. But latest GFS is showing a zone of positive EHI (combination of instability and helicity) along the front mid to late afternoon in central to east MO. GFS/NAM also indicating that some sort of meso-low may move along the boundary possibly acting a trigger for storms. Long range HRRR has been generating convection in this zone as well. This probably only warrants a marginal risk at most come tomorrow GFS is right and probably wouldn't even trigger a watch, but I can see a mini-supercell or two catching people off guard. There's some wicked looking hodographs around here tomorrow afternoon/evening, but the lack of instability (specifically surface based) basically nullifies the threat.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 14, 2021 16:42:23 GMT -6
I say that then look at the 18z Hrrr and see its showing a bunch of surface based instability combined with very high levels of 0-1km and 0-3km SRH
That would be a problem
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 14, 2021 16:49:28 GMT -6
The 12z run of the HREF only had a few UH tracks that were west of here tomorrow. Let's see if the 00z run later changes anything  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 14, 2021 19:33:30 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2021 20:05:54 GMT -6
Slow start there in Denver, but what an historic storm for them.
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Post by amstilost on Mar 14, 2021 20:26:34 GMT -6
I see reports of 31" and 36" in and around Cheyenne, but NWS reporting 25.8". Those reports are from the "Latest Snowfall Totals" link on Denver NWS site and just keep scrolling north to Cheyenne, wait, here's the link. Clicky |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 14, 2021 22:05:09 GMT -6
I'm ready for some storms! Nothing bad, just lots of lightning. Hehe.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 14, 2021 23:05:04 GMT -6
Oh, this wind!! Keeps waking me up.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 15, 2021 5:28:34 GMT -6
Marginal risk up for supercells very late this afternoon/evening from the metro on westward per the SPC. All modes of severe possible when and where they do occur.
All my empty outside trash containers where spread out around my fenced in backyard this morning. Was not happy about having to go outside to collect them and bring them back under the house.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 15, 2021 5:34:10 GMT -6
Also love how the 'cool down' for the second half of the month early April as just evaporated away to zonal flow to southwesterly flow. Spring's here to stay folks!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 15, 2021 8:34:58 GMT -6
Huge Day 3 risk area outlined by the SPC. That does include our area in a marginal risk  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 15, 2021 10:41:56 GMT -6
11:30 update added the metro to the 5% hail risk today
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Post by ElburnDave on Mar 15, 2021 11:28:36 GMT -6
We want pics of your big 24 incher, unclesam!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 15, 2021 11:39:38 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 15, 2021 11:53:11 GMT -6
New Day 2 is uh....interesting  |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 15, 2021 12:03:39 GMT -6
Well that's awkward...
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 15, 2021 12:15:18 GMT -6
Yikes...  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 15, 2021 12:37:06 GMT -6
Not a Denver sized storm, but I’m surprised we are getting any accumulation with surface temps at 35 and recent temps as warm as 70 degrees.  |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 15, 2021 12:47:29 GMT -6
Euro getting closer to having a more substantial severe threat up to I-70 on Wednesday. Not much instability despite Tds approaching 60F with morning and early afternoon rain keeping temps in check, but hodographs are gnarly.  |
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Post by ElburnDave on Mar 15, 2021 12:48:19 GMT -6
Not a Denver sized storm, but I’m surprised we are getting any accumulation with surface temps at 35 and recent temps as warm as 70 degrees. Heaviest snow I've seen all winter for about 5 minutes. Vis was less than 100 yards. All done now except for some light sleet. Maybe 1/2" accum. After the recent temps, I think I'm ready for more. Bring on beer, bbq and bags! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 15, 2021 13:06:54 GMT -6
Clearing line trying to push north currently with some agitated CU forming out west  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 15, 2021 13:15:43 GMT -6
Some Gnarly storms shown in the metro this evening between 0-3Z by the 18Z HRRR.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 15, 2021 13:24:07 GMT -6
Some Gnarly storms shown in the metro this evening between 0-3Z by the 18Z HRRR. Some wicked SRH being shown with those storms to. They look to stay elevated around here but further west they might begin as surface based
Wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado warning or two out there
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 15, 2021 13:24:49 GMT -6
Some Gnarly storms shown in the metro this evening between 0-3Z by the 18Z HRRR. A long track supercell with well defined UH track... right up I-44 into the metro. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 15, 2021 13:37:17 GMT -6
More phallic references in here today than at a high school homecoming dance.
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