Chris's Corner - Valentine's Day Winter Storm

A landspout tornado or two cannot be ruled out in close proximity to
the surface/mid-level low, mostly across eastern Kansas, where lapse
rates are steep and low-level vorticity is maximized. In addition, a
separate area with a supercell tornado threat will exist in central
and eastern Missouri. Low-level backed flow north and east of this
boundary is leading to effective SRH around 100 to 125 m2/s2 which
may increase to near 200 m2/s2 though the afternoon. In addition,
ingestion of low-level vorticity along the boundary may increase the
tornado threat. However, storm motion in relation to the orientation
of this boundary does call into question whether these storms will
be surface based or if they will be slightly elevated on the
cool-side of the boundary.

Overall, the limited instability and resultant marginal threat may
preclude watch issuance. However, a locally favorable environment,
especially in central Missouri, will continue to be monitored.