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Post by amstilost on Mar 15, 2021 19:03:21 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 15, 2021 19:44:04 GMT -6
Nothing too much here. Few sprinkles and some lightning and thunder in the distance.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 15, 2021 20:01:46 GMT -6
amazing...even the longer range of models want to lose the 540 line anywhere in the conus except for the far western parts. bwg may be correct. Bet it changes tomorrow though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 15, 2021 20:03:55 GMT -6
00z HRRR is some scary stuff for Dixie on Wednesday
I hope for the sake of the people living there it's wrong
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 16, 2021 1:49:51 GMT -6
east AR, north half or so of MS and most of AL in Mod risk on Wed.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 16, 2021 9:50:05 GMT -6
NWS has February snow event summary up. Link. One interesting thing to note. Previously I couldn't find an instances of accumulating snow with temp in the single digits going back to about 1945. They had the data going back to 1890 and found 2 instances of accumulating snow with air temp 5F or below...both in 1912 oddly enough. Just highlighting how rare this is in St. Louis. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 16, 2021 10:42:23 GMT -6
Looks like a couple rounds of elevated storms for our area tomorrow. HREF and other mesoscale modeling are showing helicity tracks across the area with hail and some severe wind gust the threats.
Far southern areas of the CWA have the possibility of a tornado or two
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 16, 2021 11:18:52 GMT -6
NWS has February snow event summary up. Link. One interesting thing to note. Previously I couldn't find an instances of accumulating snow with temp in the single digits going back to about 1945. They had the data going back to 1890 and found 2 instances of accumulating snow with air temp 5F or below...both in 1912 oddly enough. Just highlighting how rare this is in St. Louis. At the time Glenn mentioned that the last time it happened was 1940. I thought he said that came from the NWS. But maybe I'm misremembering or that wasn't accurate. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 16, 2021 11:24:08 GMT -6
NWS has February snow event summary up. Link. One interesting thing to note. Previously I couldn't find an instances of accumulating snow with temp in the single digits going back to about 1945. They had the data going back to 1890 and found 2 instances of accumulating snow with air temp 5F or below...both in 1912 oddly enough. Just highlighting how rare this is in St. Louis. That's an incredible stat...it was definitely an event I'll never forget. |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 16, 2021 11:28:14 GMT -6
My under appreciated zone for severe weather tomorrow is southeast MO into southern IL. If rain/clouds don't hang on too long and air temps rise...watch out.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 16, 2021 11:31:38 GMT -6
NWS has February snow event summary up. Link. One interesting thing to note. Previously I couldn't find an instances of accumulating snow with temp in the single digits going back to about 1945. They had the data going back to 1890 and found 2 instances of accumulating snow with air temp 5F or below...both in 1912 oddly enough. Just highlighting how rare this is in St. Louis. At the time Glenn mentioned that the last time it happened was 1940. I thought he said that came from the NWS. But maybe I'm misremembering or that wasn't accurate. I remember him saying the same thing actually. But there's a subtlety here...NWS cited 5F threshold when going back to 1912. Glenn (like me) may have been referring to 10F and maybe there was an instance of an inch or two in 1940...just thinking out loud here... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 16, 2021 11:43:21 GMT -6
That is a massive hatched 15% tor area  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 16, 2021 12:33:22 GMT -6
Euro is still trying to bring the warm front up through the metro tomorrow evening. That would certainly up the severe threat along and south of that boundary  |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 16, 2021 12:38:45 GMT -6
That is definitely one of the larger hatched risks I've seen in a while. SPC already mentioning possible upgrade to high risk in the dicussion as well.
And I agree 920, I have a suspicion that SPC isn't nearly generous enough on the northern flank of the outlook on into S IL. Much will depend on the amount of junk clouds/storms still around and the amount of destabilization, but don't underestimate the triple point...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 16, 2021 14:43:08 GMT -6
This is the kind of storm that tends to sneak further N than what models show...but as said, a lot will depend on early day cloud/precip trends.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Mar 16, 2021 18:12:35 GMT -6
Does anyone follow Hyperlocal Extreme Weather on facebook? And what's your thoughts?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 16, 2021 18:37:15 GMT -6
Does anyone follow Hyperlocal Extreme Weather on facebook? And what's your thoughts? No, but it sure sounds hype-ey... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 16, 2021 18:49:10 GMT -6
My under appreciated zone for severe weather tomorrow is southeast MO into southern IL. If rain/clouds don't hang on too long and air temps rise...watch out. Ill say SW MO tomorrow afternoon near the triple point. Although parts of SW MO are already in the enhanced risk so I'm not sure if that qualifies as underappreciated.
If I was chasing tomorrow that might be my spot actually. Most of the chasers should be in Dixie tomorrow and SW Mo is alot closer than the deep south.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 16, 2021 19:02:50 GMT -6
The strongly backed surface winds along the warm front/triple point is definitely cause for concern.
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 16, 2021 19:49:04 GMT -6
Does anyone follow Hyperlocal Extreme Weather on facebook? And what's your thoughts? He is in here as well......come out come out whomever you are. 😂😂 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 16, 2021 20:14:13 GMT -6
Does anyone follow Hyperlocal Extreme Weather on facebook? And what's your thoughts? It's not too bad of a follow. Way better than most FB pages and groups about weather. As tilawn said the guy is a member here. Seems pretty knowledgeable but not a met. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 16, 2021 20:18:21 GMT -6
NAM showing some wet flakes Thursday afternoon on the backside
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 16, 2021 21:22:09 GMT -6
/photo/1
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 17, 2021 0:03:24 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 17, 2021 0:04:49 GMT -6
HIGH risk for parts of ne LA, much of central MS and part of nw AL
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 17, 2021 0:05:24 GMT -6
Son. Of. A. B1tch. You did it again. lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 17, 2021 0:12:43 GMT -6
Son. Of. A. B1tch. You did it again. lol  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 17, 2021 0:15:36 GMT -6
And now Thursday has been upgraded to a Moderate risk
Rough couple days ahead for the SE US
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 17, 2021 0:20:54 GMT -6
Off to an active beginning to severe season. Could be a long few months.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 17, 2021 3:55:23 GMT -6
Biggest threats around here will be heavy rain and some hail. The closest tornado threat to us looks to be MAYBE southern Rynolda over to Madison County (MO)...or Fredericktown. But I really think it ends up further south towards Poplar Bluff and points south. It is REALLY hard to see anything other than hailers north of the track of the upper low which is forecast to pass well to our south. So far south... I'm begining to look more closely at the potential for wet snow mixing with the rain tomorrow afternoon... especially in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks.
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