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Post by ajd446 on May 13, 2021 6:29:45 GMT -6
Roof top frost st.peters  |
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Post by ndolan387 on May 13, 2021 21:23:44 GMT -6
The models are moving the start time of the rain up quicker than yesterday. It looks like it could be raining by 12pm FYI on Sat for anyone with outdoor plans this weekend.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 14, 2021 1:42:44 GMT -6
The models are moving the start time of the rain up quicker than yesterday. It looks like it could be raining by 12pm FYI on Sat for anyone with outdoor plans this weekend. Models look a little aggressive with the rain Saturday. 850MB jet on all models is focused over southwest MO and does not begin to veer/spread east until late Sat and Sat night. Any MCS will remain tied to that LLJ. I expect something similiar to what is happening aong KS/NE border early this Am.. just further southeast. Blow off clouds and a few showers will reach the metro SAT... but the more substantial rain IMO will be focused to our west and southwest. Now... I do think more rain is likely from Phelps down to Madison (MO)... Saturday as the stratiform precip tied to the MCS spreads east Saturday. |
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Post by ajd446 on May 14, 2021 5:55:47 GMT -6
I think most of the weekend is dry in st.louis. i think the front stays south and it's cool with easterly wind. Rain should finally get here sunday night. I am not impressed with rainfall in st.louis
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Post by ajd446 on May 14, 2021 6:10:54 GMT -6
Also patchy frost and 37 in st.leters again. Whatbis amazing is 4 of the last 5 nights we bottomed out in the 30s with some frost. Truly remarkable.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 14, 2021 13:08:02 GMT -6
I think most of the weekend is dry in st.louis. i think the front stays south and it's cool with easterly wind. Rain should finally get here sunday night. I am not impressed with rainfall in st.louis Why do you think the front stays south? Not saying your wrong... but need a reason. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 14, 2021 13:13:50 GMT -6
There is quite a difference in the handling of the LLJ tonight into tomorrow... which is the key feature needed to drive any overnight MCS. Euro is MUCH weaker and more focused to the west/southwest vs. the GFS/NAM models. The NAM frequently over develops LLJ and is fast with moisture return. I am continuing to lean more concervative for eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and think eastward progression of convection will be slow. The plume of higher PW air is to our west...low level Td's are not impressive at all and current trajectories in the low levels are taking the moisture return west across texas before pulling north... not exactly a recipe for quick moisture return up this way. That being said... an MCS (not unlike last night's and today's) does seem likely from KS into southwest MO. I expect somewhat more extensive cloud cover to spread east over the region and with enough moisture incurease some of the remnants of the overnight MCS are likely to spread a few showers into our area through the day. There are potnetial impacts on the temperatures too. I held ground at 70 for tomorrow but I can definitely see that being too warm if shower coverage is greater.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 14, 2021 17:40:55 GMT -6
Is smoking a briskett overnight. Luckily I have cover.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 14, 2021 18:16:50 GMT -6
Is smoking a briskett overnight. Luckily I have cover. Sweet! And yum!!!! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 14, 2021 18:26:58 GMT -6
Agree with that thinking, Chris...the airmass in place currently is very dry so it's hard to imagine an MCS plowing east into it before some modification/moistening can occur.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 15, 2021 6:57:30 GMT -6
The radar looks about like I expected this morning. Poorly organized patchy showers... that weaken considerably as they move away from the higher PW air to the west. Lots of dry time... but there will be some ocassional showers.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 15, 2021 7:31:06 GMT -6
Is smoking a briskett overnight. Luckily I have cover. Nice! Let us know how it turned out. What kind of smoker do you have? I bought a WSM 22” a couple months ago and have rarely missed a weekend of smoking something or the other. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 15, 2021 8:37:06 GMT -6
Last night's euro was some prime severe weather weenie gold  |
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Post by mosue56 on May 15, 2021 10:17:30 GMT -6
Any idea if that area of rain on radar will ruin outdoor evening movie plans in Barnhart?
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 15, 2021 10:33:17 GMT -6
Any idea if that area of rain on radar will ruin outdoor evening movie plans in Barnhart? It's fighting the dry air but looks like it might win out and be pretty showery for most of the afternoon. Hopefully not. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 15, 2021 10:53:35 GMT -6
Is smoking a briskett overnight. Luckily I have cover. Nice! Let us know how it turned out. What kind of smoker do you have? I bought a WSM 22” a couple months ago and have rarely missed a weekend of smoking something or the other. I finished about 545 this morning. 12 full hours. I have an Old Country "Pecos" I got last spring from Academy. This pic was when I took it off and wrapped it at midnight.  |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 15, 2021 11:14:10 GMT -6
Been raining out here in St Clair for awhile now. Down at the river house cutting grass. Not fun in the rain.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 15, 2021 11:28:22 GMT -6
Nice! Let us know how it turned out. What kind of smoker do you have? I bought a WSM 22” a couple months ago and have rarely missed a weekend of smoking something or the other. I finished about 545 this morning. 12 full hours. I have an Old Country "Pecos" I got last spring from Academy. This pic was when I took it off and wrapped it at midnight. Fantastic. How long into the cook did you wrap? And did it end up nice and moist? I’ve been doing poultry and pork, but going to try my first brisket soon. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 15, 2021 11:55:22 GMT -6
Wet.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 15, 2021 15:28:03 GMT -6
Hardly a drop in Troy. Gave us the one two split!
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 15, 2021 15:28:51 GMT -6
I finished about 545 this morning. 12 full hours. I have an Old Country "Pecos" I got last spring from Academy. This pic was when I took it off and wrapped it at midnight. Fantastic. How long into the cook did you wrap? And did it end up nice and moist? I’ve been doing poultry and pork, but going to try my first brisket soon. 6 hours to get to the temp and color I wanted. It was very juicy and delicious with all the sides we made (slaw and tater salad). Plus dill pickles. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 15, 2021 15:58:14 GMT -6
Hardly a drop in Troy. Gave us the one two split! Same in Brighton...not even a hundredth in the gauge. Never got anything beyond a light shower/sprinkle. |
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Post by REB on May 15, 2021 19:17:02 GMT -6
Hardly a drop in Troy. Gave us the one two split! Same in Brighton...not even a hundredth in the gauge. Never got anything beyond a light shower/sprinkle. .01inch. I could use a nice rainfall. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 15, 2021 20:27:24 GMT -6
If wee got any rain here it wasn't more than a few drops and I didn't see it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 15, 2021 21:22:04 GMT -6
 We decided to put down roots in Chicago, but have the flag to prove we are from Saint Louis! I promise to post (mostly about the metro) during interesting winters to come! Hope all are doing well and thanks for a great place to learn for all these years! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 16, 2021 6:44:01 GMT -6
We decided to put down roots in Chicago, but have the flag to prove we are from Saint Louis! I promise to post (mostly about the metro) during interesting winters to come! Hope all are doing well and thanks for a great place to learn for all these years! Congrats! Sport that flag proudly and enjoy your long cold winters  It's always cool to watch as the younger members of the group take big steps in their lives! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 16, 2021 6:47:52 GMT -6
The effective boundary is to our south and trying to lift north. The weak low-level flow into the front over eastern MO is trying to bubble up some small thundershowers this morning...it remains unclear how much will come of this... because the stronger 850mb LLJ is still focused well to our west. This leaves me to think we dont get much action through early afternoon. Then the LLJ will migrate east later today into tonight in concert with advancing
500mb shortwave. Between the large scale lift from the shortwave and added focus from the LLJ... late afternoon through tonight will be the best chance for widespread showers and storms.
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Post by ajd446 on May 16, 2021 6:54:43 GMT -6
Chris in reference to friday, my thoughts we due to the strong hp for thos time of year I figured it was going to be a painfully slow process moving the warmfront out of southern mo, I dont thing it reaches highway 70 until mid evening and i think tonight's heaviest rain will be on the 70 corridor or roughly 50 miles south of where models put the heaviest due to the trends of late.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 16, 2021 10:22:54 GMT -6
It feels kind hot and humid today. Could be me since I’ve not stopped going all morning but dang I’m sweaty.
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Post by ndolan387 on May 16, 2021 13:09:50 GMT -6
It feels kind hot and humid today. Could be me since I’ve not stopped going all morning but dang I’m sweaty. Yeah the dewpoint and feel in the air today reminds me of typical STL feel during the summer months despite the air temp being cooler. |
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It's always cool to watch as the younger members of the group take big steps in their lives!