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Post by ajd446 on Aug 25, 2021 15:52:08 GMT -6
Lambert oficially hot 100 today only 1 degree off of the record. Very impressive with the amount of humidity.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 25, 2021 16:38:06 GMT -6
Yikes at the 18z GFS. That's pretty close to a worst case for New Orleans. A strengthening strong hurricane moving nw just west of or right over the city. Ouch.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 25, 2021 17:14:08 GMT -6
I think we need to keep a close eye on that stuff near Peoria
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Aug 25, 2021 17:29:27 GMT -6
I think we need to keep a close eye on that stuff near Peoria Was about to say the old Chicago curve ball storm look on radar |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 25, 2021 17:29:31 GMT -6
GFS also has another hurricane at the end of its run hitting Texas
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 25, 2021 18:22:24 GMT -6
GFS, EURO and Canadian all showing a strong tropical system..hurricane..hitting in basically the same area next week in sw Louisiana. Canadian furthest west euro east. But that's pretty good agreement for 5-6 days out. If it happens how many hits for that small area would it make in the last 15 years? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2021 19:01:48 GMT -6
I think we need to keep a close eye on that stuff near Peoria Big 'ol nothingburger so far today but that does bear watching. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 25, 2021 21:58:07 GMT -6
You can pick out the outflow boundary per radar north of Jersyville, Illinois moving south. Wonder if that will kick off any storms?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2021 7:01:41 GMT -6
Hopefully we can get some scattered storms this afternoon to break up the heat a little...I can't wait for this wave to be done.
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 26, 2021 7:19:44 GMT -6
I looked up the criteria for the PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) classification. It has to be forecasted to effect land areas within 48 hours. That probably explains why that invest is not a PTC yet. Regardless GEFS and EPS show LA west of NOLA as the most likely landfall zone at this time.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2021 7:28:42 GMT -6
I looked up the criteria for the PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) classification. It has to be forecasted to effect land areas within 48 hours. That probably explains why that invest is not a PTC yet. Regardless GEFS and EPS show LA west of NOLA as the most likely landfall zone at this time. Very concerning track forecast with potential for a major hurricane landfall... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2021 8:39:12 GMT -6
Pretty unusual I think that models have had this thing develop and move into the same general area without even a coherent low the last couple days. The tropical discos from the Hurricane center talking about dangerous impacts possible along the gulf coast seems unusual too. Could get ugly.
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Post by yypc on Aug 26, 2021 9:04:21 GMT -6
Kind of interesting that the coldest weather of the year occurred in late february and the hottest in late august. The seasons were pushed back by 1.5 months this year.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 26, 2021 9:07:26 GMT -6
It's officially TD 9 as of 1100 AM EDT
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2021 9:10:58 GMT -6
GFS has had a system in that general area for quite some time now. It is flexing its muscles with tropical systems this year.
While I don't want any devastation along the Gulf coast, I sure wouldn't mind a good day or two of soaking rain to break up the monotony. It's been a bit since we've had one do that.
I could definitely see rapid intensification with this one during its time over the Gulf. Kind of like Michael was, it won't have time to cycle back down before hitting land.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2021 9:37:17 GMT -6
That's a notorious track for rapid development over the loop current in the N/central Gulf. Water off the coast is bathwater currently.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2021 10:04:16 GMT -6
12z gfs is a New Orleans mauler. Concerning that the NHC ..normally conservative is showing rapid intensification and near major status at landfall.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 26, 2021 10:18:45 GMT -6
That’s probably not ideal  |
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 26, 2021 10:25:15 GMT -6
That's a notorious track for rapid development over the loop current in the N/central Gulf. Water off the coast is bathwater currently. Yeah I was just looking at heat content charts for the Gulf last night and I'm pretty sure forecasted path currently is right through those warm eddys. Some very high oceanic heat content in the middle of the Gulf. Here it is:  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2021 10:50:04 GMT -6
Yea, I'd be prepping big time if I were in NOLA. We will see how big it gets once it enters the GOM...Katrina's storm surge was largely driven by its size and linear approach to the coast. It was only a Cat. 3 at landfall but it has amassed a tremendous amount of water push during peak intensity. I believe one of the main issues in NOLA then was that the left side of the storm was pushing northerly winds over Lake Ponchartrain back into the city. If the current track holds you would have a slightly different scenario, but possibly worse as the right front quadrant would be driving a tremendous amount of water in from the SE.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2021 11:07:41 GMT -6
If want rain from it here, is probably going to have to come in in far west LA or me TX. Likely stay in the lower Mississippi valley and TN valley of it enters neat NO.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 26, 2021 11:23:51 GMT -6
CU looks to be getting a bit agitated around here... hopefully we can get some storms to kick up.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 26, 2021 11:30:05 GMT -6
Yea, I'd be prepping big time if I were in NOLA. We will see how big it gets once it enters the GOM... Katrina's storm surge was largely driven by its size and linear approach to the coast. It was only a Cat. 3 at landfall but it has amassed a tremendous amount of water push during peak intensity. I believe one of the main issues in NOLA then was that the left side of the storm was pushing northerly winds over Lake Ponchartrain back into the city. If the current track holds you would have a slightly different scenario, but possibly worse as the right front quadrant would be driving a tremendous amount of water in from the SE. Exactly. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 26, 2021 11:30:32 GMT -6
CU looks to be getting a bit agitated around here... hopefully we can get some storms to kick up. Storms look like a decent bet this afternoon
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2021 11:48:28 GMT -6
Finally... storms are popping up where they are supposed to!
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Post by amstilost on Aug 26, 2021 11:51:02 GMT -6
I have thunder 7 miles west of De Soto. It appears to be to the northwest approx 5-6 miles.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 26, 2021 11:52:13 GMT -6
I have thunder 7 miles west of De Soto. It appears to be to the northwest approx 5-6 miles. Yep sitting there just to the north of me. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2021 11:58:13 GMT -6
Crabby cumulus.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2021 12:07:28 GMT -6
Finally... storms are popping up where they are supposed to! A lot better behaved than yesterday's non-event. It did rain a bit sometime overnight up my way but the only way I could tell was a few puddles. |
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Post by amstilost on Aug 26, 2021 12:28:11 GMT -6
I just looked at radar and I am leaning in my chair trying to get the storm to move more to the southeast to give me a good shower...
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