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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 1, 2021 13:04:45 GMT -6
Good Sunday afternoon and welcome to August! Where has this summer gone? This new thread is LOOOOOOOONG overdue, and I apologize for it taking so long to get it to you. I've been pre-occupied with other things the past month or so, plus there hasn’t been a lot of super exciting things to talk about. Besides, you guys do such a great job keeping the conversation rolling, it has become more a matter of me poking my head in from time to time during the summer than having to make any big, long posts. The winds of change have arrived in St. Louis with the end to a short run of heat and humidity. And while it was oppressive to say the least… it was short-lived… as has been most of the heat this summer. The numbers for July reflect this. Temperatures averaged a little below normal and the precipitation was more than 2 inches above. Neither is anywhere near record breaking. I’d say temperatures can be characterized as near to slightly below normal… and precipitation was above normal, but not exceptionally high. The biggest story of the month in my opinion has been the smoke from the western wildfires. Not only has that made for some great sunrises/sunset… but it has resulted in a couple of degrees of cooling for daytime highs during the stretch of the hottest days. Going forward for August, we start below normal and dry… but will it continue? I honestly have not looked too deeply at the long-range charts. So, I have nothing worthwhile to offer you here at this time. On a side note, I talked with Dave a few times in the past couple of weeks and he sends his regards 😊.   |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 1, 2021 14:57:40 GMT -6
pretty smoky again today.
Thanks for the new thread Chris
I've always seen August as the worst month, for several reasons.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 1, 2021 18:06:04 GMT -6
I was back home for the weekend of the 4th, you're welcome.  The heat can stay away, we are hopefully going to adopt another dog tomorrow and I don't don't want to sweat my tail off potty training her. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 2, 2021 8:06:43 GMT -6
Okay, anyone else? Even though I know it's the first Monday of the month and I know it's coming I still jump and my heart skips a beat when the siren test sounds?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 2, 2021 10:46:14 GMT -6
This is some awesome weather for August. I just hope we don’t pay for it with a heat wave in October
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 2, 2021 12:27:17 GMT -6
Just when we plan for a camping vaca in Michigan in late August up to Labor Day, it heats up up there! Had hoped for a cool respite!
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 2, 2021 12:28:21 GMT -6
Cool break in Michigan late month? Hoping!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 2, 2021 12:58:19 GMT -6
pretty smoky again today. Thanks for the new thread Chris I've always seen August as the worst month, for several reasons. No Holidays, boring weather 95% of the time, and the rush of getting the kiddos back to school etc... In other words not much to get amped up about unless something stirs in the Gulf and heads our way as remnants or moisture which I'm not seeing at this time any time soon. Also next week looks like a blast furnace especially if we can stay dry until then. GFS shows a weeks worth of 100*F+ weather and lows in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Best bet for a Excessive Heat Warning this Summer IMO after that there's signs in the longer range 3-4 week mark of Summer's back breaking and more consistent northwest flow which should keep any big time heat at bay for the most part. Typhoon recurvatures off Japan and Taiwan will be key to this as the western Pacific remains very active through the month. Atlantic should get cooking mid-late month I think but late September into October might be our peak of the season. |
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 2, 2021 17:01:24 GMT -6
kP5 Aurora Index- supposedly even MO has a chance to see the Northern Lights! If I hear more, I’ll post! Unless you all hear something!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 3, 2021 9:42:25 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 3, 2021 11:55:05 GMT -6
BLV Td is definitely registering too high- 5-10* higher than all the other local obs
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2021 13:01:47 GMT -6
BLV Td is definitely registering too high- 5-10* higher than all the other local obs Agreed. I also noticed TAF was recording 85* Tds the other day with a HI of 120*. Seems like thermistors and hygrometers tend to read high on days like that. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2021 13:04:30 GMT -6
BLV Td is definitely registering too high- 5-10* higher than all the other local obs I'm pretty sure I recorded 22 consecutive days with a Td >70*F in Brighton last month. The humidity is always bad out there on rainy years with dense timber, crop fields and dozens of shallow farm ponds nearby. The highest Td I saw was 81*F. |
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 3, 2021 13:15:46 GMT -6
BLV Td is definitely registering too high- 5-10* higher than all the other local obs Agreed. I also noticed TAF was recording 85* Tds the other day with a HI of 120*. Seems like thermistors and hygrometers tend to read high on days like that. Yeah I was pretty suspicious of BLV last week when it was reading Td 84 while everyone else was upper 70s. I looked into the specs of those automated stations and while the thermometers typically have errors in the tenths of degrees the hygrometers were about 2 degrees of max error at high humidity. Still mid-80s Td seems more than just a couple degrees off. I'm not too familiar with the BLV area but could agriculture have some hyperlocal effect at that station? |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 3, 2021 14:10:36 GMT -6
Agreed. I also noticed TAF was recording 85* Tds the other day with a HI of 120*. Seems like thermistors and hygrometers tend to read high on days like that. Yeah I was pretty suspicious of BLV last week when it was reading Td 84 while everyone else was upper 70s. I looked into the specs of those automated stations and while the thermometers typically have errors in the tenths of degrees the hygrometers were about 2 degrees of max error at high humidity. Still mid-80s Td seems more than just a couple degrees off. I'm not too familiar with the BLV area but could agriculture have some hyperlocal effect at that station? You're familiar with the concept of “corn sweat?“ |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Aug 3, 2021 16:32:08 GMT -6
Yeah I was pretty suspicious of BLV last week when it was reading Td 84 while everyone else was upper 70s. I looked into the specs of those automated stations and while the thermometers typically have errors in the tenths of degrees the hygrometers were about 2 degrees of max error at high humidity. Still mid-80s Td seems more than just a couple degrees off. I'm not too familiar with the BLV area but could agriculture have some hyperlocal effect at that station? You're familiar with the concept of “corn sweat?“ Yay corn sweat! AKA evapotranspiration. Just like us, corn "sweats" to stay cool. So yes, agriculture would have an effect at that station. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 4, 2021 2:00:04 GMT -6
Anyone dig into any long range data? Just curious as Fall starts in about a month and a half.
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Post by REB on Aug 4, 2021 5:48:49 GMT -6
We have lots of corn.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 4, 2021 9:19:22 GMT -6
Since it's slow...
Chris has there ever been any thought given by TPTB at KTVI/KPLR to have a sub channel just for weather? During “normal“ times it could just air maps similar to what is on the weather app (regional temps, visibility, etc). But in severe weather the meteorologists could do live broadcasts showing radar, warnings, storm paths... all that happy stuff... without raising the ire of the people who can't miss the current episode of Fantasy Bachelorette Love Island or whatever.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 4, 2021 9:38:24 GMT -6
Since it's slow... Chris has there ever been any thought given by TPTB at KTVI/KPLR to have a sub channel just for weather? During “normal“ times it could just air maps similar to what is on the weather app (regional temps, visibility, etc). But in severe weather the meteorologists could do live broadcasts showing radar, warnings, storm paths... all that happy stuff... without raising the ire of the people who can't miss the current episode of Fantasy Bachelorette Love Island or whatever. I think that has been tried locally. I seem to remember someone having a weather digital station. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 4, 2021 12:00:38 GMT -6
Since it's slow... Chris has there ever been any thought given by TPTB at KTVI/KPLR to have a sub channel just for weather? During “normal“ times it could just air maps similar to what is on the weather app (regional temps, visibility, etc). But in severe weather the meteorologists could do live broadcasts showing radar, warnings, storm paths... all that happy stuff... without raising the ire of the people who can't miss the current episode of Fantasy Bachelorette Love Island or whatever. There has been no serious discussion that I know of. I would think they would be more likely to do a stream than OTA. Easier for folks to get on mobile devices. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 5, 2021 8:25:31 GMT -6
Might have to watch that shortwave coming through Sunday...models have trended south with that and a bit more organized with some showing an MCS impacting the area. Mid-level winds are strong enough to support a severe wind risk.
Longer term, it looks like a break in the heat could come mid-week with a pattern change looming. The trof in the western US gets replaced with a ridge which allows a front to come through around Wednesday and a return to NW flow.
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Post by dschreib on Aug 5, 2021 8:57:46 GMT -6
Completely irrelevant "following/participated" post. Carry on...
But while I'm here--these last few days have been superb. Sign me up.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Aug 5, 2021 9:35:54 GMT -6
Might have to watch that shortwave coming through Sunday...models have trended south with that and a bit more organized with some showing an MCS impacting the area. Mid-level winds are strong enough to support a severe wind risk. Longer term, it looks like a break in the heat could come mid-week with a pattern change looming. The trof in the western US gets replaced with a ridge which allows a front to come through around Wednesday and a return to NW flow. Agreed. Have you taken a gander at the latest 500mb vort on the GEM? If it nails that like it did in winter then severe is a good possibility along with more storms to be expected rather than just an isolated threat IMO. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 5, 2021 10:44:31 GMT -6
No, but I noticed the GFS had a good disturbance working through the base of the trof...possibly an MCV.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 5, 2021 15:37:36 GMT -6
Might have to watch that shortwave coming through Sunday...models have trended south with that and a bit more organized with some showing an MCS impacting the area. Mid-level winds are strong enough to support a severe wind risk. Longer term, it looks like a break in the heat could come mid-week with a pattern change looming. The trof in the western US gets replaced with a ridge which allows a front to come through around Wednesday and a return to NW flow. I changed up the wording for sunday for that reason...I went "Chance for Storms" instead of "Isolated Storms" to open the door to a more organized threat. I'm not sure it is the kind of thing the public notices, understands or even cares about... but it made me feel better about the forecast  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 5, 2021 21:28:45 GMT -6
How bout them Cardinals
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 5, 2021 22:34:16 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Aug 6, 2021 7:06:34 GMT -6
If Mo and Girsch were in charge of the Blues, we'd trade Tarasenko for either Evander Kane or Harold Snepsts. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 6, 2021 8:14:52 GMT -6
Cardinals=horrendous and embarrassing
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