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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 27, 2021 6:43:10 GMT -6
Ida is getting stronger, already at 60 mph and 996mb.
NHC has it at cat 3 at landfall.
Do I hear a 4?
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Post by amstilost on Aug 27, 2021 7:07:13 GMT -6
Even with the Euro's west central LA landfall it does not appear any moisture makes it up here.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 27, 2021 7:09:54 GMT -6
Yea, it seems to turn right pretty quickly. Its interaction with the front on Monday though could enhance our rain chances.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 27, 2021 7:12:09 GMT -6
I hope jmg378s's thought's with the upper air pattern tempers Ida's strength. Something to watch.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 27, 2021 7:24:39 GMT -6
Lots of convection around a tightening circulation on Ida right now...we may see rapid intensification today already.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 27, 2021 8:06:28 GMT -6
Looks like shear will relax a bit into tomorrow but Ida will be dealing with some westerly shear on approach. That should throttle the intensity back a bit but it could still become a major hurricane. The shift west towards the central LA coastline is good for NOLA.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 27, 2021 8:29:47 GMT -6
I know the NAM sucks with hurricanes but it looks like it’s taking Ida way West
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 27, 2021 8:43:15 GMT -6
I know the NAM sucks with hurricanes but it looks like it’s taking Ida way West I wouldn't be surprised to see the westward trend continue with a stronger ridge over the SE. May end up close to where Laura made landfall. |
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 27, 2021 9:48:14 GMT -6
Modeling showing the SE ridge starting to break down as Ida approaches the coast. We've often seen these ridges (or their effects) to be underestimated with regards to western push, but this may limit just how far west it gets. Slower movement near coast may exacerbate surge and rainfall too.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 27, 2021 9:59:17 GMT -6
Don't get me wrong, this could under perform, but Ida going over the warmest water in the Gulf, no shear or dry air forecast, this could get ugly. We have seen Gulf hurricanes intensify extremely rapidly, and even with the NHC showing rapid intensification, they could easily be 30+mph too low. Also it probably won't have enough time for an eyewall replacement.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Aug 27, 2021 10:19:01 GMT -6
11am IDA update:
INIT 27/1500Z 20.7N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24H 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 27, 2021 10:39:29 GMT -6
Pop up storms may be back on the menu again today  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Aug 27, 2021 11:07:48 GMT -6
Pop up storms may be back on the menu again today Mr. Glass NWS STL just provided an update, overall he stated conditions are not as favorable as yesterday for strong/severe pulse storms with lesser amounts of DCAPE, less steep low level lapse rates, lower low level delta thetae values and lower values of the microburst composite index. And the most favored location today appears to be setting up a tad further south than yesterday, centered thru southeast MO and southwest IL, noting once storms form that outflows will shift that risk with time. STL metro remains on the northern bounds of the more favored region attm. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 27, 2021 11:21:03 GMT -6
And just like that... Ida is a Cat 1 Hurricane.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 27, 2021 11:31:01 GMT -6
Some pop ups in jeffco now
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 27, 2021 11:34:54 GMT -6
Latest HWRF simulating Ida pressure below 940mb with intensification right up to landfall.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 27, 2021 11:40:36 GMT -6
Sitting outside in this glorious weather having a beer after clearing some more thorn bushes and low and behold just a few sprinkles come down on me. Didn't cool me off though
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 27, 2021 12:16:12 GMT -6
Just had some strong winds followed by pea size hail and torrential rain
One mean little pop up storm
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 27, 2021 13:17:25 GMT -6
More thunder but no rain. Storm passing just to the east moving north.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 27, 2021 13:22:32 GMT -6
Dave going with a cool but largely dry fall forecast but November could be interesting...
I think September will still be largely hot, but not ridiculously so think lots of 85 to 95 degree weather, but I do agree with a couple breaks at the ends of the month which could see some upper 60s to 70s for highs and upper 40s to mid 50s for lows. October will likely be a high bust potential month. If the Atlantic keeps firing storms and hurricanes then it could be an extension of September with largely upper 70s to near 90 degree weather, but if things shutdown in the Atlantic and we can get typhoons recurving off Japan in the Pacific then it could be closer to Dave's prediction of a chilly to cold October. I think it will be wetter than he thinks though regardless including a possible tropical present from the Gulf or at least some moisture early to mid month. November should be brutal thinking 2013 levels and an early accumulating snow or 2 for most of the area but especially along and northwest of I-44/I-55.
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Post by REB on Aug 27, 2021 13:29:37 GMT -6
Woogie is struggling medically. Please send good vibes and prayers.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 27, 2021 13:56:23 GMT -6
Ida is being disrupted by the land interaction at the moment but once she emerges on the other side of Cuba, look out.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Aug 27, 2021 14:15:47 GMT -6
Woogie is struggling medically. Please send good vibes and prayers. Sorry to hear that. Vibes and prayers on the way. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 27, 2021 14:24:38 GMT -6
Woogie is struggling medically. Please send good vibes and prayers. My heart is pouring out prayers for her. Please pass along our best wishes for her! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 27, 2021 14:53:37 GMT -6
NHC has IDA at cat 4 140mph at landfall. Ouch
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 27, 2021 14:55:04 GMT -6
Yeah, I chatted a little with woogie on fb. Poor girl has been through hell. Hopefully she gets better soon.
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socotpt
Weather Weenie
South County near 255 & Telegraph
Posts: 44 
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Post by socotpt on Aug 27, 2021 15:06:56 GMT -6
Cool radar loop over the last 30 minutes. Outflow boundary moving east to west across O'Fallon/Shiloh, IL and popped a storm right on the boundary. So cool to watch that happen!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 27, 2021 15:13:16 GMT -6
Woogie is struggling medically. Please send good vibes and prayers. Prayers headed her way🙏 |
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Post by birddog on Aug 27, 2021 15:37:42 GMT -6
I am quickly approaching 2 tenths with complete sunshine!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 27, 2021 17:07:05 GMT -6
This will be the first weekend I can completely skip mowing. Hasn’t grown at all this week. Still have my tire lines lol
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