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Post by tedrick65 on Sept 7, 2021 11:06:56 GMT -6
I'm just here for someone to tell me that model-fantasy-land has a true fall cool front somewhere in the long-range I think the 21st or later constitutes model-fantasy-land. At the risk of invading BWG's territory, the 12z GFS is super toasty throughout most of its run. Gets STL below 70° for only 1 3hr interval after Saturday morning and has us in the 90°'s most days through the 20th. Close to record territory early next week. It finally gets a substantial cold front through about the 21st. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 7, 2021 11:31:36 GMT -6
There's definitely potential for some 90*+ days over the next couple weeks or so but we're close to the ring of fire for much of the foreseeable future which would knock temps down with convective debris and outflow potential. Cloud cover makes a huge difference this time of year.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 7, 2021 15:33:28 GMT -6
This stuff needs to start developing soon.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 7, 2021 16:23:54 GMT -6
There's definitely potential for some 90*+ days over the next couple weeks or so but we're close to the ring of fire for much of the foreseeable future which would knock temps down with convective debris and outflow potential. Cloud cover makes a huge difference this time of year. If I'm not mistaken. Hasn't the last 2 yrs had 90s into Oct? It sucks, but what can you do. Seems like the Summer wants to invade our Fall Temps more and more... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 7, 2021 17:31:41 GMT -6
This stuff needs to start developing soon. Looks like the old familiar split is setting up nicely so far. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 7, 2021 17:34:23 GMT -6
There's definitely potential for some 90*+ days over the next couple weeks or so but we're close to the ring of fire for much of the foreseeable future which would knock temps down with convective debris and outflow potential. Cloud cover makes a huge difference this time of year. If I'm not mistaken. Hasn't the last 2 yrs had 90s into Oct? It sucks, but what can you do. Seems like the Summer wants to invade our Fall Temps more and more... I'm not sure but I do remember one October about 10 or so years ago it was in the upper 80s and 90s for several days. It's not common but it's not unusual either. It's more likely during dry years. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 7, 2021 18:02:18 GMT -6
This stuff needs to start developing soon. Looks like the old familiar split is setting up nicely so far. Yep sure is. |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Sept 7, 2021 18:38:28 GMT -6
Classic ⛈⛈⛈☀️☀️☀️⛈⛈⛈
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 7, 2021 19:55:40 GMT -6
Wow- thought there would a bit more than what’s out there
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 7, 2021 20:05:34 GMT -6
CAPE 1500+ but low level lapse rates are barely 6- can’t sustain any updrafts
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Post by ComoEsJn on Sept 8, 2021 7:23:53 GMT -6
If I'm not mistaken. Hasn't the last 2 yrs had 90s into Oct? It sucks, but what can you do. Seems like the Summer wants to invade our Fall Temps more and more... I'm not sure but I do remember one October about 10 or so years ago it was in the upper 80s and 90s for several days. It's not common but it's not unusual either. It's more likely during dry years. the worst in my own recent memory was 2007. My sister's outdoor wedding was on October 21st, and everyone was dressed for cooler weather - instead, the high was nearly 90 that day. Blech. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 8, 2021 7:26:23 GMT -6
I'm not sure but I do remember one October about 10 or so years ago it was in the upper 80s and 90s for several days. It's not common but it's not unusual either. It's more likely during dry years. the worst in my own recent memory was 2007. My sister's outdoor wedding was on October 21st, and everyone was dressed for cooler weather - instead, the high was nearly 90 that day. Blech. That's the one...I was thinking it was around 2007 or so. I was camping at Pere Marquette and it was absolutely miserable! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 8, 2021 13:17:41 GMT -6
10 degrees cooler and today would be an elite day. But it's certainly still a good one. Can't wait for the next round of 90s. I'm stoked!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 8, 2021 15:47:44 GMT -6
I have no idea about the NMME or how accurate it is but it’s never to early to cancel winter around here
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Post by tedrick65 on Sept 8, 2021 16:06:07 GMT -6
I have no idea about the NMME or how accurate it is but it’s never to early to cancel winter around here Well for what it's worth, that's about the exact opposite of what the Farmer's almanac had to say. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 8, 2021 16:50:21 GMT -6
Sorry folks, winter's closed
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 8, 2021 19:19:20 GMT -6
Some Folks on another weather forum (WXD Disco) have been tossing out a 2011-2012 Analog for the upcoming Winter, so not that far fetched. Seems like Summer really wants to lag and lag, but we'll see. 2011-2012 was one of those unusual years but it has been an unusual time to say the least, so who knows... Just remember it never got colder than hoodie weather (barely had to wear real coats at all, and it snowed like an inch or less that year). Then of course the Summer from You Know Where that took till like October that year to finally end.
Oh, and the long range Winter forecast for that Winter (11-12) was for a colder snowier Winter, and most models were on board that idea until about later December and January once the writing was on the wall then flipped to the torchfest which obviously verified. Outside the Almanacs it's more reversed so it might be fine afterall (colder and snowier). Can't really give much credit to outlooks before November. Next 4-6 weeks looks quite unfavorable for any substantial cold dumps with positive NAO/AO and Typhoons hitting Vietnam and southern China which usually favors heat and dry times here, especially the heat. Hurricanes brewing in the central Atlantic don't help things either. By Mid to Late October the winter pattern should start showing it's hand.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 8, 2021 19:41:16 GMT -6
TS Mindo formed off the Florida Panhandle, making Landfall tonight as a weak storm. Major Hurricane Larry heading to Greenland, possibly still as a Hurricane before becoming extra-tropical. A first?
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 8, 2021 20:08:45 GMT -6
You’re prediction of a 2011-2012 winter is
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Post by tedrick65 on Sept 8, 2021 22:00:00 GMT -6
TS Mindo formed off the Florida Panhandle, making Landfall tonight as a weak storm. Major Hurricane Larry heading to Greenland, possibly still as a Hurricane before becoming extra-tropical. A first? It may sound strange, but at least it will avoid the somewhat populated areas on the southwest coast of Greenland. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 9, 2021 11:09:54 GMT -6
i put 0 credibility into almanacs. i think they come up with those outlooks in a bar over doubles sometimes. i wld like to have what theyre drinking alot of times bc those outlooks often dont match any recent common winter patterns. Autumns are getting hotter. by early september during my childhood years, we were done with 90s after the 2nd week in september. our district fair was in the 2nd week, and there wld be a lot of rain on one or two days, and by the end of the week, high temps in the 70s and crystal clear. we wld get back into 80s in october but the humidity was low. flipped to fall in november with maybe a light snow by eom. it was pretty consistent. i think the key to how severe our winter will be, will be how cold and how much snow we experience. All arctic outbreaks are due to cold. 😂
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 9, 2021 14:56:45 GMT -6
Looks like we might run at 100 degrees this Sunday... Day looks highly favorable to overperform temp-wise.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 9, 2021 19:37:52 GMT -6
Parts of Greenland going to get 3-5 FEET of snow from hurricane Larry. Cool
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Sept 9, 2021 20:11:09 GMT -6
Chris, congrats on being nominated for an Emmy! Best in the biz!
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Post by dschreib on Sept 10, 2021 7:08:47 GMT -6
Parts of Greenland going to get 3-5 FEET of snow from hurricane Larry. Cool Snowicane! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 10, 2021 8:09:53 GMT -6
Parts of Greenland going to get 3-5 FEET of snow from hurricane Larry. Cool Would definitely qualify as a “ka-boom.“ |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 10, 2021 11:05:15 GMT -6
Chris, congrats on being nominated for an Emmy! Best in the biz! Thank you! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 10, 2021 12:43:02 GMT -6
I always find these satellite loops fascinating. Watching a cluster of storms organize into a runaway heat engine
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 11, 2021 13:18:53 GMT -6
Smokiest summer I can remember around here. Sun is quite filtered today.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 11, 2021 15:24:22 GMT -6
Summer looks to stay in full control through the end of the month. Really no sign of fall. Blah
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