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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 11, 2021 15:36:59 GMT -6
Summer looks to stay in full control through the end of the month. Really no sign of fall. Blah This ridge shows no sign of letting go. At least the smoke is knocking a few degrees off highs. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 11, 2021 22:07:50 GMT -6
Summer looks to stay in full control through the end of the month. Really no sign of fall. Blah I second the blah... |
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Post by mchafin on Sept 12, 2021 8:51:00 GMT -6
Saw the topic come up and wanted to ask the group what their thoughts were for winter around here? Climate Prediction Center and Old Farmer’s Almanac are pretty much opposites of each other. Now I know none of us in here are long-term predictors of the future (I sure wish I had that kind of power over time and space) - but what are your thoughts? Split the difference and call it a mild winter with equal chances of above / below precip?
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 12, 2021 13:07:30 GMT -6
TS Nicholas down in the Gulf. Looks to landfall on the TX coast in a couple days,
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Post by amstilost on Sept 12, 2021 13:50:50 GMT -6
Saw the topic come up and wanted to ask the group what their thoughts were for winter around here? Climate Prediction Center and Old Farmer’s Almanac are pretty much opposites of each other. Now I know none of us in here are long-term predictors of the future (I sure wish I had that kind of power over time and space) - but what are your thoughts? Split the difference and call it a mild winter with equal chances of above / below precip? JB has posted some linkages/analogs based on what he has seen this hurricane season. He compares Ida and Henri(ahn-ree) to Connie and Diane from 1955. Tweet dates are 9/7 and 9/10. I know overlooking the political B.S. can be tough. That really is some eye opening linkages there along with the shut down of the WPac in August. I believe he notes years of 1908, 1955, and I think 1944. Not sure on 1944, he mentions it I'm not sure of the context though. This isn't a winter forecast, just the linkages to past hurricane season storms or lack there of. A quick look at STL snowfall graphic, 1908 and 1944 had 19" and 1955 had 22". |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 12, 2021 14:07:55 GMT -6
The combination of the Nina pattern with an easterly QBO is somewhat encouraging for the upcoming winter. Hopefully the large scale drivers set up nicely to make something out of that potential. I don't start giving much thought to the cold season until October into November, really. Just some early ramblings.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 12, 2021 14:23:50 GMT -6
Sure would like to see some of the moisture from Nicholas get in to this area. Too soon to to make any sort of prediction about that.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 12, 2021 15:29:22 GMT -6
Sure would like to see some of the moisture from Nicholas get in to this area. Too soon to to make any sort of prediction about that. I’m ok with no Rain. Major backyard project that gets delayed with each rainfall. |
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 13, 2021 8:05:15 GMT -6
Is Chris in vaca?
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Post by snowjunky on Sept 13, 2021 8:16:44 GMT -6
Wow, I just found out Brigit Mahoney is no longer with 2 Fox. I know, I am late on this.
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 13, 2021 8:17:55 GMT -6
Where did she go, snowjunky?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 13, 2021 8:36:02 GMT -6
Where did she go, snowjunky? Fox network is starting a streaming weather channel (I think) this month. She is going to be on that. She left mid-June |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 13, 2021 8:41:29 GMT -6
So much for any tropical storm moisture for us. I forgot that the later we get into September the more difficult it is for tropical remnants to get this far north. They have to fight with the stronger and more frequent cool fronts coming in.
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 13, 2021 9:50:06 GMT -6
Well it’s the last full week of Summer.
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Post by REB on Sept 13, 2021 11:04:29 GMT -6
He’s at Scott AFB this week. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 13, 2021 13:33:42 GMT -6
So much for any tropical storm moisture for us. I forgot that the later we get into September the more difficult it is for tropical remnants to get this far north. They have to fight with the stronger and more frequent cool fronts coming in. I just looked at the cone. That was a major change. Suppression city. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 13, 2021 14:09:13 GMT -6
So much for any tropical storm moisture for us. I forgot that the later we get into September the more difficult it is for tropical remnants to get this far north. They have to fight with the stronger and more frequent cool fronts coming in. I just looked at the cone. That was a major change. Suppression city. Yeah, the center of the low looks like it won't even make it to Arkansas now. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 13, 2021 16:48:38 GMT -6
Any real fall looks to hold till October sometime maybe even November the way it looks ATT. Might change next week or 2 but nothing super exciting on radar for us for awhile. EURO does have a strong storm in the day 8-10 range with a strong Autumn shot, but it's a loner at this time.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 13, 2021 16:51:38 GMT -6
Of course 18Z GFS has to take me/us for a ride with a double cold shot next week. Confidence is low until this weekend if it still shows it then maybe we might have something.
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Post by tedrick65 on Sept 13, 2021 20:15:00 GMT -6
I just looked at the cone. That was a major change. Suppression city. Yeah, the center of the low looks like it won't even make it to Arkansas now. I remember Ike in mid-September, 2008. I'd be okay without that. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 13, 2021 20:18:05 GMT -6
Wow, so Trent Garvey, who happens to be my cousin, just won this season of Hell's Kitchen! It was actually taped 2 years ago, he had to keep it a secret. Amazing job. Congrats Chef Trent!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 13, 2021 20:41:34 GMT -6
Wow, so Trent Garvey, who happens to be my cousin, just won this season of Hell's Kitchen! It was actually taped 2 years ago, he had to keep it a secret. Amazing job. Congrats Chef Trent! That’s pretty cool….. congrats to your cousin!! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 13, 2021 21:04:24 GMT -6
We now have hurricane Nicholas
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 13, 2021 21:15:25 GMT -6
Wow, so Trent Garvey, who happens to be my cousin, just won this season of Hell's Kitchen! It was actually taped 2 years ago, he had to keep it a secret. Amazing job. Congrats Chef Trent! Appears to be a darn good chef. Especially for someone so young. He has a bright future Did he keep the engagement a secret, too? |
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Post by amstilost on Sept 13, 2021 21:38:59 GMT -6
Wow, so Trent Garvey, who happens to be my cousin, just won this season of Hell's Kitchen! It was actually taped 2 years ago, he had to keep it a secret. Amazing job. Congrats Chef Trent! Congratulations to your cousin, Snowman. That is awesome. Let us know what restaurant he ends up at. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 14, 2021 5:35:26 GMT -6
im thinking this winter should be colder than it was this summer. from time to time we will see a chance of rain and snow with each passing storm system. winds will be variable. Occasional cold fronts will bring in colder weather. Warm fronts should bring in warmer weather. timing will be key.
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Post by tedrick65 on Sept 14, 2021 8:51:07 GMT -6
im thinking this winter should be colder than it was this summer. from time to time we will see a chance of rain and snow with each passing storm system. winds will be variable. Occasional cold fronts will bring in colder weather. Warm fronts should bring in warmer weather. timing will be key. I predict that the cloudy days will not be nearly as bright as the sunny ones. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 14, 2021 11:16:07 GMT -6
Wow, so Trent Garvey, who happens to be my cousin, just won this season of Hell's Kitchen! It was actually taped 2 years ago, he had to keep it a secret. Amazing job. Congrats Chef Trent! Appears to be a darn good chef. Especially for someone so young. He has a bright future Did he keep the engagement a secret, too? The details I think he did. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 14, 2021 14:40:24 GMT -6
Lots of popcorn cells going up along the front but they are having a tough time being maintained. Guessing lapse rates are mediocre again without looking at soundings.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 14, 2021 16:36:42 GMT -6
a few small hail stones here. I heard them..i'm at work, not sure of actual size. Pouring rain bigly.
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