Welcome to October!

My niece’s father in law, his home is gone & they cannot reach him. He lives near F & A east/SE of Fgtn. He had been with them for dinner & my niece says they tried to talk him into staying till storm had passed but he insisted on going home. He’s elderly & bought a burial plot in last 2-3 days. Socials are ablaze with damage reports.


The back end is just passing imby, can feel the temperature change.

Actually probably have been going that way for past ten minutes.

Fojginmo, hope that he’s ok.and just a power outage thing.

We had 60-70 mph winds at my house in Perryville about 10 mins ago. What a night. Sure hope everyone is ok.

Thankful. One fair sized limb down. Could have been so much worse.

Thanks for updating us, prayers with you all.

Reports of damage coming out of St. Mary’s now.

Luckily looks like no injuries reported at this point in Fredericktown. Significant damage though including homes. Power infrastructure took a hard hit including a primary substation.

Looking back at this morning's 12z HREF run, it did an excellent job highlighting SE MO for the greatest supercellular/tornado threat.

It also picked up on the threat along the warm front in central IL

Power has been out for a couple hours here in west Perry County, MO. Minor inconvenience to what many people are facing in Fredricktown and St. Mary. Would be very intrigued to see the track of the tornado that went through Fredricktown. It either had to track just north of us or lift back up before reaching my house. What a crazy day and thank you to all of the weather experts for keeping us up to date!!

Weather is dangerous.  Just because its not bad in your yard does not mean that it isn't shattering someone else's life in the area.  This board has a large audience who lurk here looking for the best weather information in the area.  Act accordingly, please.

Now that the severe threat has passed, it’s worth noting the consistency models are showing in bringing our first true winter blast through to start November.

There are even some runs/ensembles that hint at some frontal driven snow, but it’s unlikely. Normally, things get crushed and we stay dry.

Still, this is the next big step towards tracking winter storms.

pure guessing and not sure where all the camps line up....if there is a camp for a back loaded winter put me there. we will probably see early winter signs in november but nothing sustainable nor major in this part of the country. im leaning to a couple severe wx episodes in december and january. the big snow winners in the pac nw and mountainous regions, then perhaps in upper ms valley into upper great lakes. our best chance for our biggest snows in feb or march followed by a quick flip to Spring.

La Nina in St Louis varies from year to year because of our location. One thing for sure is wetter than usual. I'm going with we are set up for a couple of nice winter weather events come Jan/Feb/March. I can't see much more than rain until then.