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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 29, 2021 17:07:12 GMT -6
Time for a new thread and this one is based on a good question from the last one. What kind of winters followed the top 10 driest Novembers? Here is the composite from the NOAA compositing tool of the January to March (very handy!) Let's look at Dec to February first
The entire 3 months is colder and drier than normal... but quite a bit on both sides.  But if we extend the snow season out to March... we get a slightly different signal...especially for precip. You'll notice the bullseye of above normal precip north of the Ohio River and east of the Mississippi River.   I tried looking at the La Nina years of the top 10 driest Novembers... but the record only goes back to 1950 and in that time there was only 1... the winter of 1999 to 2000. So it's hard to draw strong conclusions from that one year. And it's probably a good thing. For laughs... here it is...   |
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Post by snowjunky on Nov 29, 2021 17:59:59 GMT -6
😩
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Post by amstilost on Nov 29, 2021 18:09:11 GMT -6
I went to edit a mistake I made with my last post.....I will forever have a mistake there....I couldn't figure out why I couldn't edit my post until I seen it was locked.  OK, on to winter.....it can't be that bad!!!! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 29, 2021 18:44:20 GMT -6
Excuse me while I go vomit  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 29, 2021 19:21:37 GMT -6
Glen mentioned something at 5 pm about trending colder towards the end of next week.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 30, 2021 6:49:14 GMT -6
Models have done away with any amount of cold air even in the medium and long range. Yikes.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 30, 2021 8:34:55 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 30, 2021 8:54:36 GMT -6
thanks for the info on my question chris..you too amstilost. Interesting. Dr Cohen's tweet doesn't bode well.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 30, 2021 9:29:34 GMT -6
This should help keep track of how severe (or mild) winter is... and it is much more scientific than our many arm chair methods.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 30, 2021 9:41:05 GMT -6
That's a large area of mild.
Although I'm calling it now: large winter storm for most of the central US, to include me and you, around and just before Jan 21st. My husband is having his retirement ceremony on the 21st, with family and friends coming from out of state.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 30, 2021 9:50:16 GMT -6
Winter 2021-2022......the season without a winter........
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 30, 2021 9:51:13 GMT -6
12z Icon drops a nice winter storm across the STL metro in a week.
Looks similar to the 00z GGEM from a couple days ago.
Obviously, pattern is not conducive, but that doesn’t mean we can’t hope for a statistically improbable outcome. We have certainly been in nice patterns that produced nothing.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 30, 2021 10:29:12 GMT -6
12z gfs has the storm next Tuesday as well, but is further north.
Something to end the extreme boredom at least
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 30, 2021 10:47:17 GMT -6
Winter 2021-2022......the season without a winter........ December is looking bleak for sure. Seeing some signs in the extended range EPS and GEFS for a blowtorch pattern across the eastern US in mid December. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 30, 2021 10:57:26 GMT -6
12z ggem has the storm next Tuesday as well.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 30, 2021 11:28:07 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 30, 2021 11:48:29 GMT -6
Models trying to play with our emotions again at 12z today.
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Post by bear1 on Nov 30, 2021 11:48:38 GMT -6
Ya got that right!!! 
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Post by jeepers on Nov 30, 2021 11:51:34 GMT -6
Spent last week in east central Wisconsin. A few really cold nights, and a couple of days of freezing wind. Saw some stray flakes. Thinking that’s my snow for the season. Whoopee.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 30, 2021 12:50:39 GMT -6
12z euro is now also onboard for a storm next Tuesday…
It’s a hair too far north, but very close to a nice storm for the northern metro.
So, all the globals have a storm. Some are too far north, some are a bit south, and the Icon is just right.
If we can get an accumulating snow, that would salvage December and maybe keep the mood in here decent as we await a pattern change for the heart of winter.
Stranger things have happened
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Post by amstilost on Nov 30, 2021 13:17:01 GMT -6
I seen the link, seen who sent it, and already chuckled..... |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 30, 2021 13:34:48 GMT -6
This could have been mentioned before..... The 128 year database for snowfall at STL starts with 63.3" and ends with 1.5" in 1954. Heck of a spread. One observation... The difference between the #1 spot and #2 spot is a whopping 14.1" (49.2 in 1977). Second observation...the difference between the #127th and 128th spot is a meager 1" (2.5" in 2001). If you take the bottom 10 years...2001,2004, and 2012 are the most current, but the next closet year is 1959. I would have thought there would be more recent years in there. If you take the top ten years 1975,1977,1978, and 1980 (1973 is #11). One hell of a snowy decade. The most current in that bunch is 1993 at #10 with 32.3". Do you know what this means.......  ? it looks to me like it is our turn for a wonderfully snowy winter. That is my completely biased opinion and it will keep me thinking positive and happy thoughts.....until it doesn't. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 30, 2021 13:36:51 GMT -6
This is absurd/ridiculous. Not even out of November, not even to the first day of meteorological winter, and some people are resigning themselves to no snow this season.
If you want a guarantee of a cold, snowy winter that starts in November you are living in the wrong place folks. Move north about 1200 miles.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 30, 2021 14:37:24 GMT -6
12z euro control looks amazing for the northern metro. An absolute crush job on that run.
Unfortunately, extreme variation in the 50 member ensemble suite gives little confidence at this juncture.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 30, 2021 16:05:33 GMT -6
12z euro control looks amazing for the northern metro. An absolute crush job on that run. Unfortunately, extreme variation in the 50 member ensemble suite gives little confidence at this juncture. There is actually a fair number of euro members showing accumulating snowfall next week in STL. Given the established pattern it seems rather unlikely(atleast this far SW) but hey who knows. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 30, 2021 16:14:08 GMT -6
I'll buy Chris, Brtn, Coz, wsc,weatherjason, guyatacomp, bear and 920..and everyone else a steak dinner if Lambert and Union get 1 inch or more of snow next week.
** THe offer above isn't valid if it snows 1 inch or more in Union or at Lambert.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 30, 2021 16:22:24 GMT -6
I'll buy Chris, Brtn, Coz, wsc,weatherjason, guyatacomp, bear and 920..and everyone else a steak dinner if Lambert and Union get 1 inch or more of snow next week. ** THe offer above isn't valid if it snows 1 inch or more in Union or at Lambert. We’re guaranteed steak dinners then |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 30, 2021 16:51:03 GMT -6
Twisted Tree has some good steak.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 30, 2021 17:06:02 GMT -6
The possible white or clear will melt because it won’t be cold enough! Not after this week!
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 30, 2021 17:51:51 GMT -6
Twisted Tree has some good steak. Never heard of it until just now. Gonna have to check that out. |
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OK, on to winter.....it can't be that bad!!!!
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