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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 1, 2021 15:40:59 GMT -6
Thunderstorms this morning with lightning strikes and shorts weather…. December is the new April lol
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Dec 1, 2021 16:52:16 GMT -6
I wonder what NWS is seeing to have this in disco?
MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT TOPIC OF CONVERSATION IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM COLORADO WILL TRACK
EAST, ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AS IT NEARS. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, THE REGION MAY GET ITS FIRST TASTE OF WINTERY
PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE REASONABLE
POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF THE AREA,
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
JAJA
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 1, 2021 17:05:49 GMT -6
I wonder what NWS is seeing to have this in disco? MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE NEXT TOPIC OF CONVERSATION IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM COLORADO WILL TRACK EAST, ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AS IT NEARS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, THE REGION MAY GET ITS FIRST TASTE OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF THE AREA, MOSTLY NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. JAJA There's some marginal potential for snow or a mix early next week, but it's a less than ideal setup to say the least. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 1, 2021 17:08:17 GMT -6
Now that it's December I cant wait for Independence Day.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 1, 2021 22:13:35 GMT -6
Through hour 126 I think the 00z GFS may kick out something fun!
That is a lot of wind digging into the back of the trough heading towards the four corners area. Stay tuned!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 1, 2021 22:30:26 GMT -6
And then it gets messed up, cutoff, loses cold air, blah blah blah.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 1, 2021 22:36:23 GMT -6
Same ol' same ol'
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Post by amstilost on Dec 1, 2021 22:43:28 GMT -6
I wonder what NWS is seeing to have this in disco? MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE NEXT TOPIC OF CONVERSATION IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM COLORADO WILL TRACK EAST, ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AS IT NEARS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, THE REGION MAY GET ITS FIRST TASTE OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF THE AREA, MOSTLY NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. JAJA That very well "could" be our steak dinner.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 1, 2021 23:40:59 GMT -6
After 2 yrs if being isolated from family and friends, closing our doors to the outside world. Being laughed at, yelled at by those who are close to us. We unfortunately have been hit with Covid. I was about 6 months or more after getting my 2nd covid vaccine. And just shy of 2 weeks from getting the booster. That pesky spike ball found it's way into my body. Darn our luck...I knew we would get it eventually due to the unfortunate ways in the world we live. So it was just a matter of time. Its hitting me pretty hard. I just about have every symptom besides a fever. I'm also about 5 days in and STILL feel like it's at its peak. I'm trying to be positive but it's been very difficult. My wife and 2 kids are showing just some very minor signs of it in their bodies. I sure hope it doesn't hit them as hard. Please say some prayers for us as both my wife and myself have other health issues of concern. My wife mainly...thank you guys and we have to get a snowstorm soon! ❤
LWG
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Post by REB on Dec 2, 2021 6:32:16 GMT -6
After 2 yrs if being isolated from family and friends, closing our doors to the outside world. Being laughed at, yelled at by those who are close to us. We unfortunately have been hit with Covid. I was about 6 months or more after getting my 2nd covid vaccine. And just shy of 2 weeks from getting the booster. That pesky spike ball found it's way into my body. Darn our luck...I knew we would get it eventually due to the unfortunate ways in the world we live. So it was just a matter of time. Its hitting me pretty hard. I just about have every symptom besides a fever. I'm also about 5 days in and STILL feel like it's at its peak. I'm trying to be positive but it's been very difficult. My wife and 2 kids are showing just some very minor signs of it in their bodies. I sure hope it doesn't hit them as hard. Please say some prayers for us as both my wife and myself have other health issues of concern. My wife mainly...thank you guys and we have to get a snowstorm soon! ❤ LWG I hope things get better quickly. There are so many questions these days. Variants, boosters, masks, testing. We just cancelled a trip to Belgium that we booked in March of 2019. Sad but necessary. I hope you can be as comfortable as possible and shake this thing soon. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 2, 2021 7:28:30 GMT -6
I hope we hit 77 today or tomorrow that way this december goes down in history lol as the all time is 76
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 2, 2021 7:31:02 GMT -6
LWG prayers are being sent your way, I am in healthcare and it has been an up and down battle as I joined EMS a year ago.
Take care. Get well and drink plenty of fluids to flush the virus.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 2, 2021 8:19:29 GMT -6
Prayers headed your way for a speedy recovery!!
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Post by amstilost on Dec 2, 2021 8:23:02 GMT -6
After 2 yrs if being isolated from family and friends, closing our doors to the outside world. Being laughed at, yelled at by those who are close to us. We unfortunately have been hit with Covid. I was about 6 months or more after getting my 2nd covid vaccine. And just shy of 2 weeks from getting the booster. That pesky spike ball found it's way into my body. Darn our luck...I knew we would get it eventually due to the unfortunate ways in the world we live. So it was just a matter of time. Its hitting me pretty hard. I just about have every symptom besides a fever. I'm also about 5 days in and STILL feel like it's at its peak. I'm trying to be positive but it's been very difficult. My wife and 2 kids are showing just some very minor signs of it in their bodies. I sure hope it doesn't hit them as hard. Please say some prayers for us as both my wife and myself have other health issues of concern. My wife mainly...thank you guys and we have to get a snowstorm soon! ❤ LWG Prayers for you and the family....I have family members that have/had it. Thankfully very minor symptoms. The one thing that I keep hearing is stay active/mobile. Do not lay around. I'm sure that is pretty hard to do when you feel like crap. Get well soon. |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 2, 2021 9:08:28 GMT -6
Prayers for your recovery weather guy in Troy! Hope you are able to get outside and sit in the sun and get that Vit D!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2021 9:54:41 GMT -6
And then it gets messed up, cutoff, loses cold air, blah blah blah. Looks really strange how it splits that energy and has two distinct secondaries. The large-scale pattern it depicts isn't half bad, but the finer details are messy. Definitely still some potential next week... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2021 10:09:12 GMT -6
Last night's model consensus has trended towards a colder solution next week with a better position of the ridge out front. If these trends continue, I like my steak cooked medium rare  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2021 10:33:08 GMT -6
Once again, the GFS fails to develop anything of interest despite the upper level jet structure looking pretty favorable across the region. The strong onshore flow is a problem though...that breaks down the upstream ridge which flattens/shears the shortwave in the S stream. We need to maintain more ridging along the coast which might be tough.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 2, 2021 10:51:12 GMT -6
PivotalWeather continuing to add features. Now has 6z/18z ECMWF runs, 3hr increments on all runs, and additional parameters (frontogenesis, lighting, others maybe?).
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 2, 2021 10:51:22 GMT -6
Once again, the GFS fails to develop anything of interest despite the upper level jet structure looking pretty favorable across the region. The strong onshore flow is a problem though...that breaks down the upstream ridge which flattens/shears the shortwave in the S stream. We need to maintain more ridging along the coast which might be tough. Yeah the GFS just shears the shortwave up. We need that shortwave to hold together, sharpen, and dig south more across southern OK and TX and where's the SE ridge when we need it. The 500mb flow is so zonal from IA/MO border north. It makes you wonder if there will be even enough cold air besides borderline temps. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2021 11:02:36 GMT -6
Once again, the GFS fails to develop anything of interest despite the upper level jet structure looking pretty favorable across the region. The strong onshore flow is a problem though...that breaks down the upstream ridge which flattens/shears the shortwave in the S stream. We need to maintain more ridging along the coast which might be tough. GEM is close but doesn't pull it together until east of here. It’s going to be a minor miracle to get a good southern stream storm in this pattern but it still seems like a small possibility. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2021 11:03:16 GMT -6
Once again, the GFS fails to develop anything of interest despite the upper level jet structure looking pretty favorable across the region. The strong onshore flow is a problem though...that breaks down the upstream ridge which flattens/shears the shortwave in the S stream. We need to maintain more ridging along the coast which might be tough. Yeah the GFS just shears the shortwave up. We need that shortwave to hold together, sharpen, and dig south more across southern OK and TX and where's the SE ridge when we need it. The 500mb flow is so zonal from IA/MO border north. It makes you wonder if there will be even enough cold air besides borderline temps. We want the flat, confluent flow across the lakes...that keeps the cold air in place. Models depict a favorable jet structure with an outbound, backbuilding jet across the Lakes/Upper Midwest and maybe even some coupling with the S stream jetstreak nosing in. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2021 11:14:22 GMT -6
12z ukmet is good for 1-3 inches from STL south
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2021 11:18:05 GMT -6
Of note yesterday was Canada tying it’s national record high temp for December.
There is also some serious cold being locked up over northern Canada and Alaska currently. Maybe we can get a pattern change in late December to unleash that on the lower 48
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 2, 2021 11:18:47 GMT -6
No steaks for you!
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on Dec 2, 2021 11:37:59 GMT -6
After 2 yrs if being isolated from family and friends, closing our doors to the outside world. Being laughed at, yelled at by those who are close to us. We unfortunately have been hit with Covid. I was about 6 months or more after getting my 2nd covid vaccine. And just shy of 2 weeks from getting the booster. That pesky spike ball found it's way into my body. Darn our luck...I knew we would get it eventually due to the unfortunate ways in the world we live. So it was just a matter of time. Its hitting me pretty hard. I just about have every symptom besides a fever. I'm also about 5 days in and STILL feel like it's at its peak. I'm trying to be positive but it's been very difficult. My wife and 2 kids are showing just some very minor signs of it in their bodies. I sure hope it doesn't hit them as hard. Please say some prayers for us as both my wife and myself have other health issues of concern. My wife mainly...thank you guys and we have to get a snowstorm soon! ❤ LWG Sorry to hear you've contracted COVID. We're in a similar situation here except have the Pfizer booster as well and are still okay. Don't think we've dodged it because of the booster but don't think it hurts either. Same family/friends remarks, etc. You've done the right things for you and your family. Good luck and get well soon! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2021 11:52:37 GMT -6
Of note yesterday was Canada tying it’s national record high temp for December. There is also some serious cold being locked up over northern Canada and Alaska currently. Maybe we can get a pattern change in late December to unleash that on the lower 48 A pretty good chunk of that airmass is being dislodged equatorward this weekend with a deep NW flow developing across central Canada...maybe even some temporary cross polar flow looking at the hemispheric charts. Have to wonder if models aren't underestimating that airmass a bit. One major hiccup though is the marked lack of snow cover well to the North...that airmass will tend to modify quickly without that. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2021 13:03:33 GMT -6
12z euro says we try the Tuesday storm again in the D8-10 period.
I would be thrilled with the 10 day snow total, but I’d be the only one 😂
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2021 14:16:47 GMT -6
12z euro says we try the Tuesday storm again in the D8-10 period. I would be thrilled with the 10 day snow total, but I’d be the only one 😂 Sounds about right. 10 days is the new two weeks, lol. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 2, 2021 16:22:53 GMT -6
There are still a significant number of ensemble members from both the GFS and Euro showing accumulating snow for STL with the midweek system.
This shows how chaotic the pattern is for next week and how unlikely it is that any operational model is on target at this time... and could be way off target based on the range of ensemble possibilities.
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