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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2022 10:47:57 GMT -6
Models never handle the big time southern energy well at this range. They also underplay the shallow cold. That's all I'll say. Regardless, still ready for spring.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2022 10:51:02 GMT -6
Oh I know it's what we need. But it has work to do to give us a snowstorm instead of an ice storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 25, 2022 10:56:05 GMT -6
Ill get excited when Snowman and Friv get excited lol. Hope everyone is safe, healthy, and warm the next few days.
Have a great day everyone!!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2022 10:56:42 GMT -6
12z ggem has a similar conceptual setup as well.
Something to get the board engaged again finally.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2022 11:01:17 GMT -6
12z ggem has a similar conceptual setup as well. Something to get the board engaged again finally. It's been showing a setup like that for a few runs now.
Hopefully other models jump on board
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2022 11:18:11 GMT -6
Welp, I just laid out the beans on FB...kiss this one goodbye  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 25, 2022 11:38:54 GMT -6
I like the look of the GEM. Strong confidence there will be something in our area at this time next week. Lot of options in play, obviously, but better than nothing.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2022 11:50:11 GMT -6
About 20%-25% of gfs ensemble members have a significant ice storm in or near STL.
Pretty notable signal at this range.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2022 11:56:57 GMT -6
GEFS mean 24hr QPF for the period of interest next week Looks like something’s brewing. Hopefully not rain  |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 25, 2022 11:57:25 GMT -6
On top of Covid and the flu, strep throat seems to be making a pretty big appearance around here now. Feels like about half my office is out with one of them. My wife works in the lab at a local hospital; she said they set records for numbers of testing for COVID, flu, and strep last week (and lots of positives for all three too). Enough so that they're running low on testing supplies. We've made it thru the past two years without getting COVID till she brought it home Friday. WIsh I at least had some interesting weather to watch while we're recovering. Hubs brought it me on Wednesday. So when i was chatting with my shipt guy over the weekend who was trying to make me feel better, he said ‘hey you made it two years, that’s pretty good!’ I said, ‘yeah I almost didn’t fail!’. lol |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 25, 2022 12:17:29 GMT -6
I know BRTN alluded to this previously this week but don't be surprised to see flakes falling Thursday AM. May get a dusting in southern spots with how cold it is and has been.
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 25, 2022 12:36:09 GMT -6
I just noticed this board opened for business 8 years ago yesterday, and we didn't have a party! Happy Birthday, MTWSTL.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 25, 2022 12:47:03 GMT -6
I just noticed this board opened for business 8 years ago yesterday, and we didn't have a party! Happy Birthday, MTWSTL. Yep! That January 2014 storm was so good it broke the old forum. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 25, 2022 12:47:46 GMT -6
Euro, GFS and GEM all show the Gulf getting emptied into the Midwest.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2022 12:53:11 GMT -6
Euro, GFS and GEM all show the Gulf getting emptied into the Midwest. This is the reason why I think this has potential to be a big one. It's really the first time we've seen the combo of deep Gulf/subtropical moisture and shallow arctic air. I'm seeing the classical "figure eight" surface pattern, and liking what I'm seeing. Fingers crossed...and with the hope it's not an icy crippler. We are LONG OVERDUE. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2022 12:55:47 GMT -6
Euro has rain all the to Minneapolis on Tuesday....that starm passes...more energy..another storm form..brings some ice here...then snow.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 25, 2022 12:59:15 GMT -6
But, none of the ones above 6 inches happened in February, which I believe was the original statement from Bdgwx. OOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! Nevermind  I thought that thin squall we got slammed with back in (2009ish?) was in February. A very narrow but continuous feed of heavy snow that only impacted areas of downtown and points west of the metro. I'm sure that's on this list but I measured 11" in Maryland Heights at that time. Maybe it was in January. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2022 13:02:19 GMT -6
Good to see the euro jump on board with the GEM
Combine those two with several GEFS members showing something similar and we might have something to watch
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2022 14:04:48 GMT -6
I'd say system of interest at this stage. Even with being so far out, like BRTN said, that is a TON of moisture coming into a major trough. Finally a classic midwestern winter storm setup.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2022 14:24:05 GMT -6
EPS mean 72hr QPF for mid-late next week is 1.25” in the metro. Even more for the southern counties
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 25, 2022 14:34:55 GMT -6
Hi-res nam throwing us a surprise bone Thursday morning. Need to keep an eye out there.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2022 14:38:02 GMT -6
Hi-res nam throwing us a surprise bone Thursday morning. Need to keep an eye out there. Models are REALLY trying hard to wrap up the digging S branch energy across the Rockies before it ejects out and begins to shear a bit. Definitely a possibility that it trends towards a bit more something. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 25, 2022 14:46:10 GMT -6
January 30/31 would be the 40 year anniversary of the "blizzard of 82." So maybe we can get some nice snow to celebrate.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2022 14:48:15 GMT -6
Hi-res nam throwing us a surprise bone Thursday morning. Need to keep an eye out there. That system just dropped 16-20” of snow across eastern Colorado and western Kansas |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2022 14:57:59 GMT -6
Hi-res nam throwing us a surprise bone Thursday morning. Need to keep an eye out there. That system just dropped 16-20” of snow across eastern Colorado and western Kansas Upslope city. It's actually a seperate shortwave all together from the next system in line yet to really develop. Just goes to show how short/chaotic the wavelegth has been this winter...sound familiar? The biggest negative factors for the Central US/Midwest this winter has been that, and the lack of quality moisture availability overall. That looks to change. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2022 15:28:55 GMT -6
Will the track of the upcoming 'possible' EC bomb play into our future weather. Just a guess on my part but would a more west based EC storm/trough help us with colder air when our 'storm of interest' comes through? Do we 'root' for or against the EC cities, or does it matter?
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 25, 2022 15:50:26 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2022 15:52:03 GMT -6
Will the track of the upcoming 'possible' EC bomb play into our future weather. Just a guess on my part but would a more west based EC storm/trough help us with colder air when our 'storm of interest' comes through? Do we 'root' for or against the EC cities, or does it matter? Probably so. A lot of these models are pumping the ridge up too much out ahead of the main energy in the Great Basin across the Lakes/E US behind the nor'easter and I'd bet money that's in error. The cold continues to be relentless across Canada and models have pretty consistently shown this warming bias in the medium range only to come in colder/flatter. Fun times ahead. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2022 15:58:39 GMT -6
Going back to earlier in the season, the models were waaaay to aggressive with lead shortwaves...which is not unusual to begin with... so it seems reasonable that will be the case as well.
I'm not ready to get all wrapped up in next week... but it is an interesting look.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2022 15:59:46 GMT -6
Will the track of the upcoming 'possible' EC bomb play into our future weather. Just a guess on my part but would a more west based EC storm/trough help us with colder air when our 'storm of interest' comes through? Do we 'root' for or against the EC cities, or does it matter? Probably so. A lot of these models are pumping the ridge up too much out ahead of the main energy in the Great Basin across the Lakes/E US behind the nor'easter and I'd bet money that's in error. The cold continues to be relentless across Canada and models have pretty consistently shown this warming bias in the medium range only to come in colder/flatter. Fun times ahead. Thanks, it will be fun (hopefully) to watch unfold. |
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