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Post by bdgwx on Jan 26, 2022 14:15:36 GMT -6
Quite a few big boys in the 12z GEFS. I’m particularly fond of ensemble 10. What’s not shown on here is the icing. Looks like several runs have big ice storms for parts of the area  I noticed there was a significant uptick in QPF as well. That increases our confidence at least a little bit that this simulated weather system is real at least in some form. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 14:46:23 GMT -6
I guess we officially have a watcher
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 14:57:15 GMT -6
What does the EPS look like ?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 15:44:40 GMT -6
What does the EPS look like ? Still awaiting on Accuwx to get their CST, lol. The GEFS mean looks like it throws most of the chips out front and only has about .25" liquid equivalent frozen precip. But it definitely gets the boundary through, so I'm gueseing there's some duds in the mix that skews the mean output. Overall, still a strong signal for a major winter storm. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 26, 2022 15:56:53 GMT -6
Boy the 18z NAM run got some New England forecasters a little worked up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 16:10:05 GMT -6
Boy the 18z NAM run got some New England forecasters a little worked up. Cape Cod Circumventer  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 16:10:41 GMT -6
Boy the 18z NAM run got some New England forecasters a little worked up. I know blowing out others candle dosent make yours burn brighter but it’s been very entertaining watching this slowly trend further and further out to sea. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 26, 2022 16:16:28 GMT -6
The closed low at 500mb entering California that made an appearance in the GFS 12Z cycle at hour 120 is now gone from the 18Z cycle. It is comical how different that aspect of the evolution of the pattern is changing from run to run.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2022 16:19:15 GMT -6
yeah 18z gonna be way different
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2022 16:26:52 GMT -6
like yesterday's 18z run now the gfs is about too far south with the ice and snow part lol, but still a pretty good hit south of I70
edit..kaboom..we get it real good, lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 16:30:22 GMT -6
Well the 18z GFS is impressive
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 16:34:24 GMT -6
Gfs welcome to the party
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 16:35:07 GMT -6
Honestly with that run you have all three global models fairly close 7 days out not bad
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 16:36:10 GMT -6
18z gfs is sick.
I love long duration winter events. Something special about having a multi day storm.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 26, 2022 16:36:30 GMT -6
Betting the house Ballwin will be all rain or dry slotted.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 16:36:40 GMT -6
 That’s a boat load of icing across SE MO |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 17:05:40 GMT -6
What does the GEFS show
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 17:17:37 GMT -6
Most members have the storm, but all are actually worse (at least from a snow perspective) than the operational which is interesting. I consider it encouraging that there is strong convergence in the conceptual framework, so nothing to get too worked up by. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 17:27:35 GMT -6
The last few runs of the GEFS have been holding back more energy in the trough before it ejects. That’s a positive thing for our winter weather chances  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 26, 2022 17:29:52 GMT -6
That’s a boat load of icing across SE MO Similar to the Feb 2011 storm is it not, if anything a tad more south that that one. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 26, 2022 17:34:40 GMT -6
Boy the 18z NAM run got some New England forecasters a little worked up. Cape Cod Circumventer Sent you a PM |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 26, 2022 17:37:54 GMT -6
Radar is looking pretty healthy down in Oklahoma……. Maybe a little surprise in the morning?
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Post by amstilost on Jan 26, 2022 17:41:51 GMT -6
I went from 4" snow, lots of ice on the 12z Canadien to 14" snow on 18z GFS. Please keep your arms and hands inside the ride at all times, remove your hats and glasses and please, do not stand up while this ride is in motion. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 17:48:42 GMT -6
I went from 4" snow, lots of ice on the 12z Canadien to 14" snow on 18z GFS. Please keep your arms and hands inside the ride at all times, remove your hats and glasses and please, do not stand up while this ride is in motion. Gotta love it. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 17:50:01 GMT -6
Radar is looking pretty healthy down in Oklahoma……. Maybe a little surprise in the morning? Maybe...but this airmass is super dry. Surface dewpoint depression is currently 19* here. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 26, 2022 17:57:55 GMT -6
Our Chris was just on Fox 2 doing weather from his backyard. I was impressed with his report! He explained things well for next week! He was a tad excited and rubbing his hands! Haha
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 26, 2022 18:01:41 GMT -6
Actually at Faust Park...
It is cold.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 26, 2022 18:11:49 GMT -6
It was excitement too, Chris! Sorry, it looked like your backyard!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 26, 2022 18:21:41 GMT -6
It was excitement too, Chris! Sorry, it looked like your backyard! That is a HUGE compliment  I'm interested for sure... but short of excited... for now. No doubt it is going to be a tough week of forecasting. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 26, 2022 18:30:11 GMT -6
Ok well you made me excited! I’ll be excited and you stay interested! Deal!
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