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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 26, 2022 19:00:37 GMT -6
Our Chris was just on Fox 2 doing weather from his backyard. I was impressed with his report! He explained things well for next week! He was a tad excited and rubbing his hands! Haha And he had a great big shadow  |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 26, 2022 20:20:56 GMT -6
Looks like several are calling for something interesting next week in out neighborhood. And it isn't just the locals who are talking about it. Ryan Hall even talked about it briefly. Says it looks like someone in the mid part of the country may be in for some excitement. Hope it pans out, because I'm about ready to cancel the rest of winter.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2022 20:32:14 GMT -6
Yep, if this is a swing and a miss... bring on spring
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2022 20:33:45 GMT -6
This is as good a set up I've seen in awhile
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 26, 2022 20:35:36 GMT -6
The RAP is trying to give us a little dusting tomorrow
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 26, 2022 20:48:37 GMT -6
Well great input from you pros today. Seems like a glimmer of hope in a week!! Hope everyone has a great night and here is too the potential for a bit of mood snow tomorrow.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 26, 2022 21:31:35 GMT -6
NWS has added low end pops:
Tonight
A chance of flurries before 3am, then a slight chance of snow between 3am and 5am, then a chance of flurries after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 19. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday
A chance of flurries before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 26, 2022 21:38:25 GMT -6
Honestly... looking at the 18z GFS... it looks realistic. It doesn't have any weird looking twists and turns. It has interactions and a "look" that makes sense. Like everyone else, I'll be interested to see what curveballs the new data throws but I think we can declare mid-week next week as a "system of interest". If trends continue, I may upgrade to "watcher" status tomorrow.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 26, 2022 21:44:20 GMT -6
As for tomorrow's thing...
So much dry air to overcome and dynamics that are barely detectable. I'm just not too jazzed for much more than a few flurries or sprinkles. IF IF IF there is to be something that briefly gets fun... it appears to be in a narrow band southeast of STL down towards the Kaskaskia River where the RAP is trying to generate a little convergence a weak warm air advection is maximized...such that it is. It is a very nebulous system.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 26, 2022 21:47:50 GMT -6
So I’m assuming that means everything on radar to the SW in MO isn’t reaching the ground.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2022 21:50:44 GMT -6
Closest report is Tulsa
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 21:51:05 GMT -6
00z Icon is interesting and yields some ice and snow. However, it seems to hold the energy back a little too long for the final kicker which holds it back from being an amazing storm.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2022 21:59:00 GMT -6
Not a bad looking sounding off the GFS this evening for tomorrow am. Not much dry air to overcome with that snow profile  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2022 22:06:48 GMT -6
Icon has a river of precip stretching from Baja to Newfoundland.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 26, 2022 22:14:12 GMT -6
So 1" along NC and VA coast and 3" in Boston on the 0Z GFS.
And, 19" along NC and VA coast and 8" in Boston on the 0Z NAM...Someone is either very exited, or very frustrated.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2022 22:20:50 GMT -6
As for tomorrow's thing... So much dry air to overcome and dynamics that are barely detectable. I'm just not too jazzed for much more than a few flurries or sprinkles. IF IF IF there is to be something that briefly gets fun... it appears to be in a narrow band southeast of STL down towards the Kaskaskia River where the RAP is trying to generate a little convergence a weak warm air advection is maximized...such that it is. It is a very nebulous system. I kept seeing signs of that narrow band. Was trying to will that one into a little surprise. I think we see flakes fly at least. Should have returns over area for several hours and dry air doesn’t look as intense as it did earlier. Trying to hold excitement for next week in but it’s been such a dud of a winter so far it’s tough. Speaking of Swing and miss, our New England friends are starting to really sweat. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 22:21:57 GMT -6
I’m liking where the 00z gfs is going…
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 22:24:52 GMT -6
Kaboom
Metro STL might want a 35 mile shift southeast, but that is a beautiful conceptual look at hour 174
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2022 22:27:34 GMT -6
Big sleeter and snow on gfs
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Post by amstilost on Jan 26, 2022 22:32:47 GMT -6
Kaboom Metro STL might want a 35 mile shift southeast, but that is a beautiful conceptual look at hour 174 Kaboom for you, not so much IMBY. I certainly don't like seeing the more amplified scenario. I wonder if that has anything to do with the GFS taking the EC storm a little more out to sea? There is still 16" around Springfield, MO and 2" for me. Amazing it can change that much here, but not at all down there. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 22:35:30 GMT -6
Kaboom Metro STL might want a 35 mile shift southeast, but that is a beautiful conceptual look at hour 174 Kaboom for you, not so much IMBY. I certainly don't like seeing the more amplified scenario. I wonder if that has anything to do with the GFS taking the EC storm a little more out to sea? There is still 16" around Springfield, MO and 2" for me. Amazing it can change that much here, but not at all down there. You are getting way to fixated on the numbers at this range. It has all the ingredients come together right over the region. I’m very confident a 20 inch band won’t come through my backyard. It’s way more interesting that we see all 3 global converging on a solution generating a major winter storm in the region. This run validates the shift we saw in the 18z gfs towards the other models. That is huge at this stage. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 22:37:57 GMT -6
Ya at this range is more about big picture than precep amounts We can start worrying about IMBY stuff early next week |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 22:48:24 GMT -6
00z ggem has our storm still too.
Not amazing like the 12z run, but nice to see the big picture consistently showing up now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 23:12:49 GMT -6
00z GEFS looks pretty good
Definitely starting to see a strong signal for an overriding event around here with many members now showing that
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 26, 2022 23:17:12 GMT -6
Looks like HRRR/RAP and short term trends want to place the band between Rolla/Salem to around Freeburg, IL, but anywhere along I-44 and I-70 and points south have a chance at a light to heavy dusting (heavy meaning a half inch or less) but that heavier amount will be somewhat tough to pin down until it shows up. This is in regards to tonight's mini event. Widespread flurries should affect most at one point or another save for the northern most third of counties. Also some chance of more flurry streamers Friday AM as well as more energy passes through and the trough kicks out.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 23:27:35 GMT -6
Hold on to your butts if this large scale pattern the GFS is advertising were to come true That would be constant arctic air shots and southern stream energy interaction  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 26, 2022 23:32:07 GMT -6
Very interesting setup next week. Definitely has the earmarks of something big. Who, where and when is all going to be laid out in the coming days.
But let's not forget to take a deep breath and prepare our ourselves for some crazy model twist and turns...
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 23:51:25 GMT -6
I agree with you, I did not expect the radar to look as good as it does right now, at some point that’s gotta break through with some light snow.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 23:53:44 GMT -6
The gefs does look much better than earlier today. It has below freezing temperatures by 6am Wednesday, it looks like models have the transition from liquid to frozen sometime from 6am - 6pm on Wednesday. Definitely has a ton of potential
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 26, 2022 23:58:08 GMT -6
I agree with you, I did not expect the radar to look as good as it does right now, at some point that’s gotta break through with some light snow. The 'donut hole' around Springfield, MO Radar is real though and only now is it starting to close as the precip looks to come to an end there. That said the RAP has been insisting that the system will pick up more moisture and that once it gets to the river into Illinois it will juice up and cough up several hundredths of an inch of liquid QPF or near an inch of snow especially around the Litchfield to Salem, IL, to Carlyle area. Not saying that is what will happen, but it might have some merit as it's been pretty consistent with that idea for most of the day now. |
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