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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 0:03:31 GMT -6
Yes I just looked there’s no snow falling around rolla where they have decent radar returns. Probably a long shot in the metro
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 0:46:07 GMT -6
Let’s toss tonight’s euro out the window, brutally ugly with mostly rain temps in the 40’s
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 0:50:34 GMT -6
Let’s toss tonight’s euro out the window, brutally ugly with mostly rain temps in the 40’s Most important thing is it still has the system and showing a large overrunning event. Good news is in 12 hours it will look different |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 27, 2022 1:33:20 GMT -6
On next week storm of interest...we have border line temps at best. We have been burned so many times with this set up? It's how many days out? Temps will be too warm for anything significant. What are talking? Several inches of snow or an rain to ice then some back end snow that gives us 1-3 inches? Are we excited for this? What am I missing on why so many people are excited?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 1:35:51 GMT -6
The 00z euro control run is much less amplified than the operational run and looks like largely a snow event
The EPS also took a big step up in mean snowfall for the area
If your curious, the mean using 10:1 ratios is 3.5” of snow
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 2:10:13 GMT -6
On next week storm of interest...we have border line temps at best. We have been burned so many times with this set up? It's how many days out? Temps will be too warm for anything significant. What are talking? Several inches of snow or an rain to ice then some back end snow that gives us 1-3 inches? Are we excited for this? What am I missing on why so many people are excited? Some of the most notorious winter storms to hit the region started out warm and rainy...just saying. Also, be careful using generic forecasts for temp trends, as they generally show bias towards climo in the extended. Models will not have a good handle on the location of the arctic boundary or surface temps at this range. The ingredients for a big one are all there. |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 27, 2022 2:24:24 GMT -6
On next week storm of interest...we have border line temps at best. We have been burned so many times with this set up? It's how many days out? Temps will be too warm for anything significant. What are talking? Several inches of snow or an rain to ice then some back end snow that gives us 1-3 inches? Are we excited for this? What am I missing on why so many people are excited? Some of the most notorious winter storms to hit the region started out warm and rainy...just saying. Also, be careful using generic forecasts for temp trends, as they generally show bias towards climo in the extended. Models will not have a good handle on the location of the arctic boundary or surface temps at this range. The ingredients for a big one are all there. Fox 2 app already shows 1-3 inches on the 3rd? What happened to the 3 day rule? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 2:49:58 GMT -6
Some of the most notorious winter storms to hit the region started out warm and rainy...just saying. Also, be careful using generic forecasts for temp trends, as they generally show bias towards climo in the extended. Models will not have a good handle on the location of the arctic boundary or surface temps at this range. The ingredients for a big one are all there. Fox 2 app already shows 1-3 inches on the 3rd? What happened to the 3 day rule? What 3 day rule? Chris's personal rule for his own private forum? And I thought it was 5 days...but I digress. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 3:15:47 GMT -6
Tonight's operational runs certainly don't shed much light on next week. Looking at the GFS, EC and GEM they are all over the place with timing and the evolution of the energy involved here. The GFS still has the bowling ball look and highly amplified, the EC not as much but still wraps up and the GEM looks flat as a pancake. The take away for me is that the EC looks totally out to lunch in lifting the boudary so far north...I seriously doubt that happens with a 1050mb ridge sitting over the Central Canadian/US border. The GEM looks completely lost. And the GFS a decent compromise and probably close from a conceptual standpoint...although I do still expect a flatter look overall which the GEM hints at.
The 00z GEFS mean looks like a solid winter storm across the region, with a fairly cold profile that certainly supports ice and snow potential. It has no problem getting the boundary through on Tuesday or early Wednesday and it stays to the south...certainly nothing like the EC shows.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 27, 2022 4:07:58 GMT -6
Wind blown flurries at 30°
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 27, 2022 4:27:57 GMT -6
Wind blown flurries at 30° Edit.....25 flakes fell and now 31° |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 4:38:34 GMT -6
Wind blown flurries at 30° Edit.....25 flakes fell and now 31° You sure it wasn't 26?  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 5:00:27 GMT -6
Flakes have broken through here in Brighton.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 27, 2022 5:32:24 GMT -6
Edit.....25 flakes fell and now 31° You sure it wasn't 26? It’s back again so I have no exceeded 26 flakes.....😊 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 5:46:19 GMT -6
Some nice jet dynamics in play currently which is pulling this together...you can actually see the altocumulus "mackerel sky" gravity wave pattern on radar which is pretty freaking cool.  |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 27, 2022 5:51:54 GMT -6
Dusting now. Show shower currently
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 27, 2022 5:54:35 GMT -6
Few flakes breaking through in Arnold.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 5:58:09 GMT -6
Full blown -SN and a healthy dusting piling up. Neat little system.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 27, 2022 6:07:15 GMT -6
Looks like a little "river enhancement" north of the city.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 6:15:27 GMT -6
Looks like a little "river enhancement" north of the city. Weak frontogenesis |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 27, 2022 6:19:00 GMT -6
Better than I expected. Already coating the ground.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 27, 2022 6:24:55 GMT -6
Dynamics still look good for next week. Probably not even worth looking at precip type maps until Sunday.
Also, this system moving through right now should build a bit on the back end. We may get a few hours of a nice snow.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 27, 2022 6:50:25 GMT -6
Nice little dusting. At least it reminds us its winter and sets the mood.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 7:07:53 GMT -6
Woke up to a light dusting here.  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 27, 2022 7:13:35 GMT -6
Just a few flurries here ……..
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 27, 2022 7:13:47 GMT -6
Pretty good dusting in Wentzville. The side roads were lightly covered, and there were snow snakes on the main roads. It's very nice to see. I am looking forward to watching next week unfold with all my fellow weather junkies.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 27, 2022 7:20:21 GMT -6
I haven’t seen a single flake here
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 27, 2022 7:28:33 GMT -6
FB report of slick conditions and multiple vehicles off roads around Lake of the Ozarks.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 27, 2022 7:31:01 GMT -6
My drive from Lake St. Louis to Florissant saw a pretty consistent band of light snow falling with the untraveled parts of roads starting to see some cover and the traveled portions were either clear or had a light amount of sheen to them. Overall, not a bad commute and pretty to see some snow fly this morning. Here's to a decent system next week for all of us.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 7:33:56 GMT -6
M0.5" in Alton
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