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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 27, 2022 10:03:03 GMT -6
Yep the Icon holds back too much. Make a blend of them all and you've got yourself a heck of a storm.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 10:16:46 GMT -6
Gfs looks to be ugly to warm hopefully this is not a trend
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 10:21:46 GMT -6
Edit: it does hit us with the second wave some
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 10:21:47 GMT -6
Gfs looks to be ugly to warm hopefully this is not a trend Idk, looks pretty good to me with a nice hit of ice and snow post frontal. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 10:22:33 GMT -6
We need the cold front to push further south on Wednesday quicker
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 10:22:44 GMT -6
Gfs has a decent snow..weaker with the system over all.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
It’s decent we waste 1” of wolf on Wednesday rain and 40 , the models yesterday had boundary set up 150-200 miles south with more frozen precipitation
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 10:24:32 GMT -6
That's a banger of a 1050+ high the GFS has coming into the northern plains.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 10:26:25 GMT -6
I guess I should not complain about a 4-8” storm:)
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 10:35:26 GMT -6
Upgrading to a falling Iguana WARNING for Florida this weekend. Gonna be messy
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 10:36:32 GMT -6
I know it's just model surfing and what we do here, but you guys are way too wrapped up in fine details at this range. The large scale pattern is as ripe as can be for a major overrunning storm, IMO. Just gotta bring it home.
Ensembles are the way right now.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2022 10:44:50 GMT -6
I know it's just model surfing and what we do here, but you guys are way too wrapped up in fine details at this range. The large scale pattern is as ripe as can be for a major overrunning storm, IMO. Just gotta bring it home. Ensembles are the way right now. I think the cold being modeled for the Friday following the storm (and potentially beyond) is a huge concern given the overrunning setup. That would be extremely dangerous. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 10:47:14 GMT -6
I know it's just model surfing and what we do here, but you guys are way too wrapped up in fine details at this range. The large scale pattern is as ripe as can be for a major overrunning storm, IMO. Just gotta bring it home. Ensembles are the way right now. I think the cold being modeled for the Friday following the storm (and potentially beyond) is a huge concern given the overrunning setup. That would be extremely dangerous. Absolutely, man. If this comes together right...and I sure hope it doesn't in respect to glaze ice...it could be historic for the region. Stay tuned. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 10:48:27 GMT -6
I know it's just model surfing and what we do here, but you guys are way too wrapped up in fine details at this range. The large scale pattern is as ripe as can be for a major overrunning storm, IMO. Just gotta bring it home. Ensembles are the way right now. Last nights EPS looked really good with a half inch of QPF falling with surface temps below freezing. I think some of the operational runs are being to aggressive pumping up the ridge ahead of the system and stalling out the cold front. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2022 10:50:38 GMT -6
12z ggem is rain to a lot of ice and then some snow from STL north.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 27, 2022 10:54:25 GMT -6
I'm not trying to be impulsive, but I can't help but notice a bit of a theme the last couple runs, on all models except the Icon...and that theme is a northward shift.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 10:54:38 GMT -6
GEFS definitely colder than the OP
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 10:58:05 GMT -6
I'm not trying to be impulsive, but I can't help but notice a bit of a theme the last couple runs, on all models except the Icon...and that theme is a northward shift. From what I’ve seen that isn’t being reflected in the ensembles though. Operational runs are going to bounce around like ping pong balls until they have a good grasp of the energy. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2022 10:59:03 GMT -6
I'm not trying to be impulsive, but I can't help but notice a bit of a theme the last couple runs, on all models except the Icon...and that theme is a northward shift. From what I’ve seen that isn’t being reflected in the ensembles though. Operational runs are going to bounce around like ping pong balls until they have a good grasp of the energy. 12z ukmet is way more aggressive with the front at hour 144. Wish it went out another 24 hours, but put it in the colder camp. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 11:04:53 GMT -6
I know it's just model surfing and what we do here, but you guys are way too wrapped up in fine details at this range. The large scale pattern is as ripe as can be for a major overrunning storm, IMO. Just gotta bring it home. Ensembles are the way right now. Last nights EPS looked really good with a half inch of QPF falling with surface temps below freezing. I think some of the operational runs are being to aggressive pumping up the ridge ahead of the system and stalling out the cold front. 100% |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2022 11:05:55 GMT -6
Verbatim, the 12z ggem has over 2 inches of QPF as ice for the OKC region and generally 0.5-0.75 for the STL metro.
THAT IS NOT WHAT WOULD ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE (accretion efficiency is less, sometimes much less than 1:1), but that shows you the potential with this storm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 11:10:34 GMT -6
One thing I have noticed on the GEFS is a downtrend in total QPF
It’s still showing plenty of total QPF (over half an inch on todays 12z) but quite a bit less than previous runs were showing
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 27, 2022 11:17:03 GMT -6
A few flakes and 36* at KFAM
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2022 11:40:10 GMT -6
The big picture stuff is still favorable and very much worth watching. The 12z GFS looks too "smooth" and phased at 500mb by midweek. I would expect a more well defined circulation and independent system at that point.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 27, 2022 11:49:05 GMT -6
The coupling potential with the jet exiting the Great Lakes as this system comes in is worth watching.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 11:55:55 GMT -6
The big picture stuff is still favorable and very much worth watching. The 12z GFS looks too "smooth" and phased at 500mb by midweek. I would expect a more well defined circulation and independent system at that point. Seems like models were pretty locked in with the idea of a bowling ball upper low digging into the wheelhouse just a few cycles ago but they have gone towards a more open/broad upper system as it begins to get kicked out. That's a good thing, as it allows more lead energy out across the ridge and dampens the strength of the mid-level WAA a bit. Theoretically, that should allow the arctic boundary to settle further S instead of getting hung up or even lifting. Still plenty to sort out...but we are approaching the range where operationals usually get a better grasp of the energy involved. We'll see. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2022 11:57:32 GMT -6
The coupling potential with the jet exiting the Great Lakes as this system comes in is worth watching. I was noticing that too. A lot of pieces out there for an impactful event... if they all come together. Seems likely we are entering our best window for winter weather this season over the next couple of weeks. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 12:18:21 GMT -6
The blocking pattern on the global that 920 posted is a thing of beauty. Definitely seems to be more opportunity down the road.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 27, 2022 12:29:42 GMT -6
Man the Euro just went next level on Boston. 40" of snow with wind gusts up to 60mph would be insane.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 12:31:04 GMT -6
Euro looks colder , similar to Ukmet at 144 , temps and 850s look good for frozen precipitation
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