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Post by jmg378s on Jan 27, 2022 12:32:49 GMT -6
It feels pathetic that 6" of snow here is starting to "seem" historic...
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 12:36:17 GMT -6
euro is way more aggressive with the cold air this time..
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 27, 2022 12:37:24 GMT -6
12Z Euro has the 850mb low around SGF at hour 168. That's pretty close to the benchmark.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2022 12:38:16 GMT -6
I like where this run is going…
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 27, 2022 12:41:36 GMT -6
Well it did move south, but not enough. It really gets that thing cranking. As mentioned before, that is a bias of the Euro at this range. Let's hope so.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 12:42:30 GMT -6
it looked so good..then it keeps it 33 for 24 hors with rain. Other than that everything looks good
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 12:43:25 GMT -6
Yep looked good at first then not so much, hammers north and west of here
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 27, 2022 12:43:57 GMT -6
It's pretty close for 168 hours out though. It's been said before...being in the bullseye this far out doesn't usually work out.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2022 12:46:31 GMT -6
All good all players are still looking decent there’s cold and lots of moisture, hopefully it works out for once
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2022 12:49:43 GMT -6
The Euro 500mb argues that it's lower level features may even be too far south. That 500mb vortmax would favor Iowa for snow and northern MO more in line for ice. To say nothing of the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak as far north as southeast MO and southern IL.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 27, 2022 12:53:02 GMT -6
Yep... takes 700 from north of St Joe to Madison WI
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 27, 2022 12:56:32 GMT -6
12Z UKMET looks active as well. Given the broad model consensus and the fact that significant difference is the evolution of the pattern still ends in a weather maker of some kind for the middle of the country give me a reasonable amount of confidence this simulated storm is probably real and won't just go poof in the next couple of days. Never say never though.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 27, 2022 13:10:28 GMT -6
Headed to Festus 10am....seen some flakes flying on Hwy A. Also had some on the way home. Temp said 39* in the car. Now at 43* 7 miles west of De Soto.
The Euro is not letting go of 'crushing' Boston. Seems there is a 100-125 mile difference between GFS and Euro. Euro much stronger at 500mb and just about directly over Cape Cod, while the GFS is weaker and further out to sea. Who will win?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 13:15:02 GMT -6
That's some nasty cold the euro has. I'm sure it's too amped up at this range like we have seen for months. Need to get all the features a few hundred miles south, plenty of time.
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Post by yypc on Jan 27, 2022 13:17:10 GMT -6
I’m so jealous of Boston
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 27, 2022 13:22:22 GMT -6
I find it a bit ironic how ECMWF is tooting their horn while ol'reliable seems to be slipping by the day...lol
It usually mops up the GFS with coastals though...let's see how she trends.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 13:28:42 GMT -6
The 12z euro control run looks like a huge ice/snow storm for most of the area The metro is particular would be in the heart of the icing  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 13:38:25 GMT -6
what do the EPS look like?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 13:43:26 GMT -6
what do the EPS look like? Operational run does look like an amplified outlier when looking at the mean surface low placement at hour 168 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 14:02:44 GMT -6
Here’s the EPS mean 500mb height and surface pressure contours overlayed Pretty ripe looking setup for a big winter storm around here  |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 27, 2022 14:10:36 GMT -6
I know it's way too early for any sense of a true lock on how this will play out, but really hoping I am not too far east this time.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 27, 2022 14:46:33 GMT -6
Looks like more snow flurries or snow showers this later tonight into late morning AM tomorrow as more energy and a moderate strength vortex max passes through. Best odds favor Illinois counties to as far west as the metro area. Looks like another dusting to half inch kind of event, but could be a streak in Illinois that jackpots an inch or so, mainly east of the metro.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 27, 2022 14:50:29 GMT -6
LSX created a weather story highlighting a northern and southern track option. Covering their bases. No no no no northern track please.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 27, 2022 16:02:55 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 27, 2022 16:03:31 GMT -6
LSX created a weather story highlighting a northern and southern track option. Covering their bases. No no no no northern track please. /photo/1 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 16:25:05 GMT -6
Boston is going to get absolutely bamboozled with snow and hurricane force winds
Those coastal lows are a different breed than we get around here
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2022 16:28:59 GMT -6
18z gfs hits southeastern Missouri good with the final kicker wave.
Beware the dreaded split 😂
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2022 16:35:30 GMT -6
I’d probably crap my pants if I ever read a discussion like this around here
Just so nobody gets confused, that’s Bostons AFD
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 27, 2022 16:39:32 GMT -6
Yep Bostons snow amounts wouldn’t happen here!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2022 17:05:55 GMT -6
eh, we can get 3-4 inches an hour..just not for many hours
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