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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 12:18:48 GMT -6
Downtown STL. Maybe a couple miles east. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 12:19:30 GMT -6
Here is the 12Z ECMWF snow depth change. It is a solid 6"+ for all of the metro area. The higher totals are to the north.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 12:20:39 GMT -6
For St. Clair county, IL in respect to Belleville, It's about an inch of rain, half inch of ice, half inch to an inch of sleet, with about 8-10" of snow on top. yielding 10-12" of stuff (ice, sleet, snow) on the ground. A very dangerous storm. Still 18-24" still popping north of I-70, may or may not be overdone.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 12:20:47 GMT -6
This also plays hell trying to schedule a manufacturing facility, balancing safety and production, with material coming from vendors in central MO and up through TN/KY. Fun times.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 12:22:10 GMT -6
Interstates are full of semi-trucks likely trying to get deliveries to their destinations as quickly as possible.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 12:22:26 GMT -6
Snow can you post Kuchera numbers for the euro?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 12:28:03 GMT -6
Snow can you post Kuchera numbers for the euro? Just keep in mind these are very likely overdone  |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 12:28:14 GMT -6
Here is the 12Z ECMWF snow depth change. It is a solid 6"+ all of the metro area. The higher totals are to the north. Meh |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 12:29:01 GMT -6
Well the first snow amount mentioned on fox2 5-7 inches. It's actually 6-9... you need to add in the 1-2 of sleet. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 12:29:32 GMT -6
This is the 12Z GFS Cobb output. The final tally is 16.7" which is only a little less than the modeled 20" positive snow depth change. Disclaimer for the lurkers...it is unlikely that KSTL gets 12" let alone 16". This is only just one model output. But it does show that there is a high ceiling for the event.
StnID: kstl Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
220201/1300Z 25 18008KT 39.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
220201/1400Z 26 18007KT 41.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
220201/1500Z 27 22005KT 45.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100
220201/1600Z 28 19006KT 48.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0| 0
220201/1700Z 29 18007KT 47.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0| 0
220201/1800Z 30 17008KT 45.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220201/1900Z 31 18008KT 46.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0| 0
220201/2000Z 32 19008KT 50.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0| 0
220201/2100Z 33 19006KT 47.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 0| 0|100
220201/2200Z 34 29003KT 46.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 0| 0|100
220201/2300Z 35 36010KT 44.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100
220202/0000Z 36 36012KT 39.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220202/0100Z 37 36012KT 38.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 0| 0|100
220202/0200Z 38 01011KT 36.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 0| 0|100
220202/0300Z 39 01011KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 0| 0|100
220202/0400Z 40 01013KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 0| 0|100
220202/0500Z 41 01014KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.071 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.36 0| 0|100
220202/0600Z 42 01014KT 28.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.079 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.43 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220202/0700Z 43 01014KT 27.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.075 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.51 0| 0|100
220202/0800Z 44 01014KT 25.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.072 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.31|| 0.58 0| 6| 94
220202/0900Z 45 36014KT 24.7F SNPL 4:1| 0.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.059 4:1| 0.3|| 0.03|| 0.31|| 0.64 72| 28| 0
220202/1000Z 46 01014KT 23.3F SNOW 4:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 4:1| 0.5|| 0.03|| 0.31|| 0.69 100| 0| 0
220202/1100Z 47 01015KT 22.2F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 7:1| 0.9|| 0.03|| 0.31|| 0.72 100| 0| 0
220202/1200Z 48 01015KT 21.3F SNPL 5:1| 0.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.071 6:1| 1.3|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 0.80 84| 16| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220202/1300Z 49 36014KT 20.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 6:1| 1.5|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 0.82 100| 0| 0
220202/1400Z 50 01014KT 20.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 6:1| 1.8|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 0.87 100| 0| 0
220202/1500Z 51 01014KT 19.5F SNOW 20:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 8:1| 2.9|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 0.92 100| 0| 0
220202/1600Z 52 02014KT 19.7F SNOW 7:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.142 8:1| 3.8|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.06 100| 0| 0
220202/1700Z 53 01014KT 20.0F SNOW 16:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 9:1| 5.0|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.14 100| 0| 0
220202/1800Z 54 01014KT 19.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 9:1| 5.6|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.22 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220202/1900Z 55 01014KT 19.7F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 9:1| 6.0|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.25 100| 0| 0
220202/2000Z 56 36013KT 20.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 9:1| 6.1|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.28 100| 0| 0
220202/2100Z 57 36014KT 20.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 9:1| 6.3|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.30 100| 0| 0
220202/2200Z 58 01013KT 19.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 9:1| 6.4|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.32 100| 0| 0
220202/2300Z 59 02013KT 19.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 9:1| 6.7|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.35 100| 0| 0
220203/0000Z 60 01012KT 19.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 6.8|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.37 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/0100Z 61 01013KT 18.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 6.8|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.37 0| 0| 0
220203/0200Z 62 01014KT 18.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 9:1| 7.0|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.39 100| 0| 0
220203/0300Z 63 02013KT 18.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 9:1| 7.6|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.42 100| 0| 0
220203/0400Z 64 01013KT 17.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 9:1| 8.2|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.47 100| 0| 0
220203/0500Z 65 02015KT 17.7F SNOW 19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 10:1| 9.5|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.54 100| 0| 0
220203/0600Z 66 01014KT 17.5F SNOW 17:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 11:1| 11.2|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.64 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/0700Z 67 01013KT 17.1F SNOW 16:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 11:1| 12.8|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.74 100| 0| 0
220203/0800Z 68 01014KT 16.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110 11:1| 13.6|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.85 100| 0| 0
220203/0900Z 69 02015KT 16.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 11:1| 14.3|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.91 100| 0| 0
220203/1000Z 70 02016KT 16.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 11:1| 14.8|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 1.96 100| 0| 0
220203/1100Z 71 01015KT 16.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 11:1| 15.3|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 2.00 100| 0| 0
220203/1200Z 72 02016KT 16.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 11:1| 15.8|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 2.04 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/1300Z 73 02014KT 17.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 11:1| 15.9|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 2.06 100| 0| 0
220203/1400Z 74 02014KT 17.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 11:1| 16.3|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 2.10 100| 0| 0
220203/1500Z 75 02015KT 18.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 11:1| 16.6|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 2.12 100| 0| 0
220203/1600Z 76 02016KT 19.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 11:1| 16.7|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 2.13 100| 0| 0
220203/1700Z 77 02015KT 20.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 16.7|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 2.13 0| 0| 0
220203/1800Z 78 02016KT 22.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 16.7|| 0.06|| 0.31|| 2.13 0| 0| 0
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 31, 2022 12:31:05 GMT -6
Snow can you post Kuchera numbers for the euro? Just keep in mind these are very likely overdone Maybe... but at 21z it has 850 at -2 and 925 at -7/-8 and still showing freezing rain. Unless there is a warm wedge somewhere in the profile (anyone have a skew T from the Euro at hour 57)... would think it would be snowing several hours earlier than it portrays. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 12:32:43 GMT -6
Here is the 12Z ECMWF snow depth change. It is a solid 6"+ all of the metro area. The higher totals are to the north. Meh Yeah...I guess the southeast part of the metro isn't quite 6". |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 31, 2022 12:34:03 GMT -6
The 8.8 in St. Clair County IL... that KBLV?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 12:35:14 GMT -6
Here is the 12Z ECMWF HR57 sounding near KSTL.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 31, 2022 12:36:43 GMT -6
Thanks BDG... looks like snow to me
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 12:37:30 GMT -6
Just keep in mind these are very likely overdone Maybe... but at 21z it has 850 at -2 and 925 at -7/-8 and still showing freezing rain. Unless there is a warm wedge somewhere in the profile (anyone have a skew T from the Euro at hour 57)... would think it would be snowing several hours earlier than it portrays. The 10:1 has 9-12" in the metro so the Kuchera ratios seems pretty reasonable actually. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 12:40:59 GMT -6
The 8.8 in St. Clair County IL... that KBLV? Most likely yes, that's Mid America Airport/Scott, AFB |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 12:41:57 GMT -6
Yes I thought the same thing, anyway you look it it’s going to be Major storm for us . Whether it’s 10” or 13” it will be a great storm
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 12:53:42 GMT -6
Just to keep everyone realistic….. the warm layer is almost always more pronounced than modeled.
Also remember, the small system a couple of weekends ago was handled better by the GFS. The nam as you'll recall came in too warm and too far North.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2022 12:55:00 GMT -6
WRF and ARW coming in cold with a flip to ice then sleet by 9PM to 12AM Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Fastest of the models.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 31, 2022 12:59:24 GMT -6
Keeping my expectations low at the moment. Just have that feeling of sleet and rain with the struggle to get to snow.
Obviously I hope I get a foot of snow but trying to stay cool here lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 13:00:10 GMT -6
Wow, just realized GFS has Boston getting another 2' this week.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 13:01:36 GMT -6
That’s good to know, because we like the GFS this storm. Honestly it’s been the most consistent for sure the last week, I really never thought I would say that .
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 13:06:34 GMT -6
BRTN, I was born and raised in Belleville, it's no longer the beautiful city it was 20-30 years ago. We migrated east in 1990 because we saw what was happening, and moved our business east in 2000. Now back to this awesome storm we have coming. Honest question...have you ever even been to any of those places you just blatantly insulted?
I've been to Belleville and it's no paradise.
I sent you a PM asking if you're OK, because it's clear you are not...and you didn't even bother responding.
Get over yourself, dude.
It was in jest. Complete sarcasm. I am fine thanks for asking. Thanks for assuming I am just a bleep who wouldn't respond. I have to been bogged down at work since the sun came up. Nothing I said it was serious. I am really can't see how that could be taken serious. But for everyone's benefit I'll see myself out until sometime after this event. I really hope things change so those people in the South don't get struck with rain/freezing rain. That was the entire emphasis of my post. Maybe the intended humor didn't play well. Doesn't mean someone has something wrong with them. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 13:07:52 GMT -6
EPS 10:1 mean  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 13:11:20 GMT -6
Talking down to people from somewhere you're not from is basically on the same level as racism. I take that seriously...maybe you should too.
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Post by weatherman222 on Jan 31, 2022 13:16:53 GMT -6
Still not sure what to make of this for us in the extreme southern portion of the CWA. Poking through the 12z solutions on Pivotal it seems like the heavier icing is ever so slightly being depicted further to the south and east towards Poplar Bluff, Cape G., and Paducah. The cut-off for the heavier snow/sleet accumulations looks to be following a Farmington-St. Gen line. Hopefully, tonight's runs will clarify this.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 13:18:05 GMT -6
HRRR has us at 50 by 10 AM tomorrow lol
And 60 by noon.
The ole classic STL 70* to WSW
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 13:22:51 GMT -6
Keeping my expectations low at the moment. Just have that feeling of sleet and rain with the struggle to get to snow. Obviously I hope I get a foot of snow but trying to stay cool here lol The second part of the system on pretty much all of the models today came in less AMPLIFIED. This is the NAM. 12z vs 06z ----. You can see the major change in heights... There is much stronger confluence. Apparently you have to click on it to get to animate. It's a really good change for people along 44/64. I am not sure how much further South it could helpfully trend. I  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 13:27:14 GMT -6
HRRR has us at 50 by 10 AM tomorrow lol And 60 by noon. The ole classic STL 70* to WSW Doesn't the HRRRRRRR have a warm bias during the winter though? |
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