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Post by dschreib on Feb 1, 2022 8:26:52 GMT -6
We are really teetering on the edge down this way. Soundings tick right up to the 0C line for a loooooong time. History tells me those 9 hours portrayed as snow will really be sleet.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2022 8:28:39 GMT -6
That’s a beefy NAM run
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Feb 1, 2022 8:29:19 GMT -6
Here is the official NWS box and whiskers plots. KSTL is expected to get 11" with a likely range of 6" - 13".  I'm assuming this is available on the NWS page? Getting ready to teach a lesson on box and whisker plots in one of my classes and this would be great to show the class. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:29:57 GMT -6
We are really teetering on the edge down this way. Soundings tick right up to the 0C line for a loooooong time. History tells me those 9 hours portrayed as snow will really be sleet. I think you will be ok. It is very close but I think precip rates will have snow making it all the way to surface just fine. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2022 8:31:34 GMT -6
NAM shouldn't be allowed to be seen with this porn
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 8:31:58 GMT -6
The NAM has slowed the end time down a few hours.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:33:38 GMT -6
Correct me if I am wrong but I am definitely seeing potential for Thunder Thursday morning up 44 into Illinois
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 1, 2022 8:36:40 GMT -6
Here is the official NWS box and whiskers plots. KSTL is expected to get 11" with a likely range of 6" - 13". I'm assuming this is available on the NWS page? Getting ready to teach a lesson on box and whisker plots in one of my classes and this would be great to show the class. It is on the Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast tab and then you need to find and click the box plots button. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:36:43 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2022 8:36:55 GMT -6
12z NAM  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2022 8:38:27 GMT -6
nam kuchera lol  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2022 8:39:23 GMT -6
Is that 10/1 or Kuchera? I figured Kuchera would be higher than that by 4-6”
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 1, 2022 8:40:46 GMT -6
I'm trying to think. Have we ever seen the GFS and NAM suggest amounts this high within 60 hours?
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2022 8:41:20 GMT -6
Is that 10/1 or Kuchera? I figured Kuchera would be higher than that by 4-6” 920 s map is 10:1 mine is kuchera |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 8:41:37 GMT -6
If that's clownish, give me the red ball already!
We're gonna get smoked!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 8:42:04 GMT -6
I'm trying to think. Have we ever seen the GFS and NAM suggest amounts this high within 60 hours? 11 years ago to the day... Payback time. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2022 8:42:11 GMT -6
Is that 10/1 or Kuchera? I figured Kuchera would be higher than that by 4-6” The map I posted is positive snow depth change, ie how much snow/sleet the model thinks will accumulate on the ground |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2022 8:43:19 GMT -6
i stand corrected..lol
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Feb 1, 2022 8:43:53 GMT -6
When do you think the change over to snow will happen in stlouis area
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Feb 1, 2022 8:46:24 GMT -6
Have to get a snow total box out. Something plastic to dump out water first.
It’s been awhile…measure sleet, dump it once it starts snowing then measure snow as it comes. Do I dump after 6 or so inches to get less compaction?
Need lots of snow to convince kids that they can’t make the Fri wedding in WI. They were leaving Thu morning, then switched to Wed morning or maybe Early Fri morning. I said there may be a lane plowed but not the ramps that you’ll need for gas. Need lots of provisions. They may be coming around and listening to their parents. Two 23yo and two 20yo who are invincible ya know.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 8:47:10 GMT -6
When do you think the change over to snow will happen in stlouis area Looking like mid-morning-ish. These transitional storms are tricky as hell though. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:47:45 GMT -6
FV3, although not as juiced as the nam, looks great.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 8:47:59 GMT -6
Awaiting FISH and his "bigger box" comment. It's not a party until then...
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:48:50 GMT -6
When do you think the change over to snow will happen in stlouis area Best guess is 10-noon tomorrow for Downtown STL. Then slowly transitioning south. |
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Feb 1, 2022 8:49:54 GMT -6
How have the models had led today’s temperatures? I’m already at 48.
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Feb 1, 2022 8:50:12 GMT -6
I'm assuming this is available on the NWS page? Getting ready to teach a lesson on box and whisker plots in one of my classes and this would be great to show the class. It is on the Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast tab and then you need to find and click the box plots button. Awesome. Thanks! |
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Post by yypc on Feb 1, 2022 8:50:31 GMT -6
I'm trying to think. Have we ever seen the GFS and NAM suggest amounts this high within 60 hours? 11 years ago to the day... Payback time. Hopefully there is no blizzard warning this time. That seems to be the kiss of death in this region. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 1, 2022 8:51:47 GMT -6
Is that 10/1 or Kuchera? I figured Kuchera would be higher than that by 4-6” The map I posted is positive snow depth change, ie how much snow/sleet the model thinks will accumulate on the ground Yeah. I think what PW and others do is take the snow depth field ( SNOD) and compare the current frame with the previous frame and add only positive differences to the grid cells. It does this frame by frame. The SNOD field keeps track of how much snow is on the ground at every frame. In other words hour 0 is initialized with the current analyzed snow depth and then allows it to increase and decrease as it falls and melts. This serves a dual purpose. It provides a forecast of how much falls and melts using realistic rates and it helps with forecasting temperature and other related fields. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 8:54:51 GMT -6
11 years ago to the day... Payback time. Hopefully there is no blizzard warning this time. That seems to be the kiss of death in this region. I wanna see it verify. We need one up here...models certainly support it. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:55:03 GMT -6
WRF also shows no real break tomorrow with snow and sleet showers throughout.
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