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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2022 6:40:35 GMT -6
Definitely a warmer trend overnight, NAM/Euro/HRRR all trended warmer with wave 1 . Mostly all zR/Sleet instead of snow. GFS is basically on its own now with coldest solution. That’s not a good thing
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 6:47:44 GMT -6
RAP is interesting as it keeps a showery type look during the “break” tomorrow. Could see some freezing drizzle or light sleet at times during that.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 6:56:37 GMT -6
9z RAP looks so impressive with snow shield. Wow. Will be something to keep an eye on as short term models get into range with banding and how heavy snow could get coming up 44.
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Post by scmhack on Feb 1, 2022 7:00:01 GMT -6
I love working night shift during snow storms... NOT.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 1, 2022 7:02:38 GMT -6
I love working night shift during snow storms... NOT. You’d really like working all 3 shifts for multiple days then...... |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 1, 2022 7:16:37 GMT -6
Probably time to dust off the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index, link below for those who are unfamiliar: www.usawx.com/icestormindex.htmA person can take this index and make a reasonable assumption as to what impact to expect based on ZR and Wind predictions, because as you will find, you cannot get focused on just amounts of ZR, the wind is X factor. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2022 7:17:49 GMT -6
Blizzard Warning issued parts of MN and ND
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Post by amstilost on Feb 1, 2022 7:24:11 GMT -6
Such sad news for JB and family. Most everyone on here has links to his Twitter page so I'll just leave it at that.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 1, 2022 7:49:24 GMT -6
too quiet in here this morning...
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Post by dschreib on Feb 1, 2022 7:50:15 GMT -6
too quiet in here this morning... It's hard to talk when you're holding your breath while the NAM rolls out. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 1, 2022 7:51:48 GMT -6
too quiet in here this morning... It's hard to talk when you're holding your breath while the NAM rolls out. Fair... |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 1, 2022 7:52:08 GMT -6
Hrrrr has all of my eggs in the second wave basket also as far as snow goes and that's right on the line but it's the heavy stuff if it stays snow. I know, outside of its reliability window at the end of a run.🤪🤪🤪
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 1, 2022 7:52:32 GMT -6
The 12Z NBM is tick up in totals for metro area as compared to the 0Z cycle. It shows about 10" for KSTL.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 1, 2022 7:56:55 GMT -6
The 6Z 108 member GEFS, EPS, and SREF super ensemble from AccuWx shows the axis of maximum accumulation north of the metro area. It looks like it is showing about 8-9" for KSTL.  |
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Post by REB on Feb 1, 2022 7:57:53 GMT -6
too quiet in here this morning... Getting worried. Nervous silence. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 1, 2022 8:00:48 GMT -6
The WPC 50th percentile bands has the northern half of the metro area in the 8" band. Interpolating the bands might suggest the 50th percentile at KSTL is about 9".  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:03:11 GMT -6
12z nam is a tad colder than 6z
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:03:58 GMT -6
12 hrrr looks awesome. Has snow piling up quickly tomorrow morning. No real changes.
Steady as she goes.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2022 8:04:01 GMT -6
nam looks a tick cooler. More sleet than ZR
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:05:45 GMT -6
12z nam is 50 miles SE than 6z. Very evident on every map
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:06:22 GMT -6
Airport is setting up for 18" on this run.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:08:52 GMT -6
Absolutely loving the look of this NAM run so far. WEENIE MODE ENGAGE
Through hour 36, NAM says, "What break?"
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 1, 2022 8:09:26 GMT -6
Here is the official NWS box and whiskers plots. KSTL is expected to get 11" with a likely range of 6" - 13".  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2022 8:12:30 GMT -6
pretty consistent with going forecasts. chris says 6 to 9, nws has me painted in 7 to 11. seems as rsnble as anything. im sure 12 plus will be up north so it seems like a big winterstorm is coming.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2022 8:12:37 GMT -6
NAM actually has a fairly decent amount of sleet/snow during our "lull" tomorrow afternoon
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 1, 2022 8:15:06 GMT -6
too quiet in here this morning... Everybody's sleeping so they can stay up all night tonight? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:15:30 GMT -6
Has a flatter look to precip instead of the half bowling ball look. Should hammer the metro here with snow.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2022 8:21:08 GMT -6
I’m at work, keep the updates coming, and post snow and ice maps available! Thanks for all you guys that pay for the “fancy “ models, it’s awesome to see all the snow and ice maps in one place
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2022 8:23:04 GMT -6
6am Thursday on the nam, heavy snow and 17* cool
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 8:26:24 GMT -6
This run is full of pure epicness. Should make everyone on here happy.
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