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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 22:17:35 GMT -6
Wow that 7 inches on rap puts me at nearly 13 inches. If I cross into double digits I will be satisfied the rest of this winter, as that will put us close to a seasonal average after what was looking like a bleak winter.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 2, 2022 22:19:42 GMT -6
 Gotta work at 6am but wanted to stay up until it starts. Of course it’s gotta take its time and develop around me first lol |
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273 
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Feb 2, 2022 22:27:29 GMT -6
Another great HRRR run…
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 22:34:51 GMT -6
Just don't see this too often on the STL radar  |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 22:35:52 GMT -6
as snow
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 2, 2022 22:36:23 GMT -6
looking like round 2 is a bit stronger than I expected, so an additional 4 to 8 inches imby with a sharp cutoff to the north, and 4" currently on the ground - total 8 to 12. Looks like cgi in for 3 to 6 with a sharp cutoff south of town (the airport is likely to be a little less). Points between St. Louis and CGI are square in a golden zone where they could get double digits.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 2, 2022 22:41:30 GMT -6
Gotta work at 6am but wanted to stay up until it starts. Of course it’s gotta take its time and develop around me first lol Just crazy...I thought NWS said sleet mix would be for SE MO. I'm pretty sure JeffCo is considered EC MO. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 2, 2022 22:43:33 GMT -6
Well hopefully it will be all snow for us.
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Feb 2, 2022 22:43:42 GMT -6
Love the U shape around JeffCo lol NOT. I know it will be here soon but I want to be in the snow above and below me here in Arnold.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 22:46:01 GMT -6
Light snow has begun again in St.Peters
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 2, 2022 22:47:10 GMT -6
Like riding now? Because the max snow band tomorrow is going to be South of 44. In fact you are almost cerrato going to be in it. I think you will get 10" minimum. There's one little streamer north of 44. Those are the things that typically sit over BRTNWXMAN 's house for several hours just puking snow all over him. Oh that lol... Actually I think St. Peters is the luckiest place for those. BRTN has had his fair share of underwhelming events. SO I HOPE HE DOES GET A DEATH BAND UP THERE. Anyways... The way the 03Z rap ramps up the mid level jet over the next 6-8 hours has continued to trend better and better. I have no doubt that a huge blob of heavy snow will develop GFS 700MB WINDS  THE RGEM PORTRAYS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL JET AND THE MOST LEFT TURNING ALMOST DUE SOUTH FOR A TIME. OF COURSE THIS HELPS AID THE QPF OUTPUT. RGEM QPF:  This should fully develop overnight with a huge blob of heavy snow with embedded 30-35DBZ moving NNE |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 22:48:32 GMT -6
That feeder band of showers lifting towards the Fgen zone along 44 is a thing of beauty. This storm continues to put me in awe. It may not be a wrapped up cyclone that brings the goods within several hours, but it's a whole different animal than anything I've seen. It's an atmospheric river in the dead of winter.
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Post by let it snow11 on Feb 2, 2022 22:48:57 GMT -6
Combination of sleet and snow falling now in Bonne Terre.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 2, 2022 22:49:32 GMT -6
Filling in nicely to my SW on composite view.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 2, 2022 22:51:39 GMT -6
Love the U shape around JeffCo lol NOT. I know it will be here soon but I want to be in the snow above and below me here in Arnold. Ya someone needs to turn their shield off lol |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 22:51:41 GMT -6
Friv why does there almost always a persistant band in st.charles county, I lived here my entire year, and 75 percent of the time the death band parks itsil in this area. Is there an influence from the rivers Aka the mid rivers area. Just curious if there seriously is a small micro climate enhancement or, is it just coincidence.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2022 22:55:40 GMT -6
That feeder band of showers lifting towards the Fgen zone along 44 is a thing of beauty. This storm continues to put me in awe. It may not be a wrapped up cyclone that brings the goods within several hours, but it's a whole different animal than anything I've seen. It's an atmospheric river in the dead of winter.
I remember last week when this thing was in fantasy range, I mentioned the models had precip from Mexico to eastern Canada. Can’t believe that actually is happening. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 22:56:03 GMT -6
The 03z RAP looks solid...even develops a nice tail end band across the Metro up into MBY early afternoon as the mid-level Fgen, PVA and upper divergence squeezes every last bit of moisture out before it starts to shut down. I do think this could linger until sunset, giving us a good 12-18hrs of accumulating snowfall. Phenomenal.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 2, 2022 22:57:29 GMT -6
Probably too soon and me being worrisome. But looks like dry air is keeping this thing from going onto the north side of I-44. Everything on the northern fringes seems to be eroding away.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 22:58:41 GMT -6
Friv why does there almost always a persistant band in st.charles county, I lived here my entire year, and 75 percent of the time the death band parks itsil in this area. Is there an influence from the rivers Aka the mid rivers area. Just curious if there seriously is a small micro climate enhancement or, is it just coincidence. Lmao |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 2, 2022 23:00:06 GMT -6
Probably too soon and me being worrisome. But looks like dry air is keeping this thing from going onto the north side of I-44. Everything on the northern fringes seems to be eroding away. Nah, just because the lift isn’t there yet. Give it some time |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 23:00:55 GMT -6
Mcarthb I always have wondered yet no one has been able to explain why we get enhancment in this area very often
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 2, 2022 23:01:13 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 23:01:16 GMT -6
Friv why does there almost always a persistant band in st.charles county, I lived here my entire year, and 75 percent of the time the death band parks itsil in this area. Is there an influence from the rivers Aka the mid rivers area. Just curious if there seriously is a small micro climate enhancement or, is it just coincidence. Lmao I'm curious too Friv |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 23:07:29 GMT -6
Oh I have no doubt he’s done his research on this topic. I think a lot of us have been waiting for him to be asked a question like this lol |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2022 23:10:07 GMT -6
Friv why does there almost always a persistant band in st.charles county, I lived here my entire year, and 75 percent of the time the death band parks itsil in this area. Is there an influence from the rivers Aka the mid rivers area. Just curious if there seriously is a small micro climate enhancement or, is it just coincidence. Has this phenomenon followed you every place you have lived? |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Feb 2, 2022 23:11:39 GMT -6
Experts, what are we looking at in Waterloo for this round? I had about .75 of an inch of sleet give or take today. I want to destroy my kids with snowballs. Will this be able to happen?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 2, 2022 23:13:04 GMT -6
Experts, what are we looking at in Waterloo for this round? I had about .75 of an inch of sleet give or take today. I want to destroy my kids with snowballs. Will this be able to happen? Up here by me the snow was actually pretty dry. We couldn't make anything! This next round I'm not sure... |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 23:13:49 GMT -6
No it has not. How can nobody not notice the trends in this area. Today is a prime example mamy folks around mynarra have 5 inches while they only had 3.5 in troy and 2 to 3 in balwin. I always always have wondered if anyone in hear studies microclimates.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 2, 2022 23:15:34 GMT -6
I have to try and go to sleep now For the folks in Jeff Co, Randolf, Southern St. Claire and just South of there. It might take an hour or two before heavy snow abruptly crashes your neighborhood. Using the RGEM THE MOST AMPED UP MID LEVEL JET. There is going to be some explosive development on radar shortly if this is close to being accurate.    |
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