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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 30, 2022 11:20:14 GMT -6
Anybody else locked out of the NWS page? Did you do something to make the govmint made at you?🤣 |
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Post by perryville on Jan 30, 2022 11:21:03 GMT -6
I look to find myself squarely in sleetville at the moment. Hopefully some heavy snow toward the end. That’s fine, keep the zr away. I’ve seen quite a few bouts of thunder sleet but it’s been some years. . It was late February 2009. It sleeted in Perryville for 24 hours straight. Multiple thunderstorms embedded in that storm. I think we ended up with 4” of sleet. Jackson got pummeled by freezing rain. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2022 11:29:20 GMT -6
I look to find myself squarely in sleetville at the moment. Hopefully some heavy snow toward the end. That’s fine, keep the zr away. I’ve seen quite a few bouts of thunder sleet but it’s been some years. . It was late February 2009. It sleeted in Perryville for 24 hours straight. Multiple thunderstorms embedded in that storm. I think we ended up with 4” of sleet. Jackson got pummeled by freezing rain. Yup, that one sticks out well in my mind too. We had the intense thunder sleet in stg as well. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 30, 2022 11:32:10 GMT -6
. It was late February 2009. It sleeted in Perryville for 24 hours straight. Multiple thunderstorms embedded in that storm. I think we ended up with 4” of sleet. Jackson got pummeled by freezing rain. Yup, that one sticks out well in my mind too. We had the intense thunder sleet in stg as well. Pretty sure we had thundersleet in Marissa with that one, too.
We've also had thunder freezing rain since our last batch of thundersnow, which was 1982 down here.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 30, 2022 11:35:39 GMT -6
This is starting to remind me a bit of Dec. 5-6, 2013, though a more northern version. That was epic for us southerners with a foot plus in many locations. Sleet was supposed to limit totals but snow prevailed for 90% of the event. I agree with you on the overall layout of that storm system vs. what's being modeled this coming week. Another one that comes to mind for me is the January 26th-28th, 2009 event as well and a more northern version too. That was a big sleeter for S areas and sleet/snow mix for the metro and points just S/E. Once the final wave came through all areas were snow. That was a long duration event. Almost everyone saw 6 + with that final wave and the S areas had 4-8" on top of 2+" of sleet I believe. Even further S of the CWA was the crippling ice storm in the bootheel and far S IL areas and also the AR/KY/TN area. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 11:35:42 GMT -6
The Canadian ensembles continue to be outstanding  |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 11:40:26 GMT -6
It’ll be interesting, after all is said and done, how closely each modeled mean compares to actuality.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 30, 2022 11:49:33 GMT -6
The Canadian ensembles continue to be outstanding Ensembles are most helpful for pinning down the axis of heaviest snow, But they do smooth out things on the edges... and some important details. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 30, 2022 11:57:11 GMT -6
I’m looking forward to the first snowfall maps from Chris and the NWS
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 11:57:17 GMT -6
Hey Chris! What’s your number and then along with it, your standard deviation for Lambert?  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 12:04:24 GMT -6
1/30 13Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 0.7" to 21.4"
25-75% = 2.1" to 16.0"
50% = 7.9"
S = 9.4"
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 12:15:55 GMT -6
12z euro starts with a ton of rain, but should still work out.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 12:17:17 GMT -6
12Z GFS bombards us with snow every 3 to 4 days it seems. Unreal. This February could be one to remember...
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 12:19:16 GMT -6
euro back north with the final wave, and she's beaut clark
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 12:19:39 GMT -6
euro back north with the final wave, and she's beaut clark Crush job |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2022 12:19:56 GMT -6
Euro holds up the cold push dramatically compared to the other models.
Outstanding.... I effing hate the Euro. Set that BLEEP on fire.
Watch it be suppressed after the initial morning of heavy rain
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 12:21:24 GMT -6
Euro holds up the cold push dramatically compared to the other models. Outstanding.... I effing hate the Euro. Set that BLEEP on fire. Watch it be suppressed after the initial morning of heavy rain Kicker wave is a warning level storm by itself that run. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 12:21:45 GMT -6
between midnight and 6am Wed. night... around .5 qpf..snow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 12:23:07 GMT -6
Euro is some pretty serious icing for much of the area…including the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 12:24:08 GMT -6
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Post by yypc on Jan 30, 2022 12:24:58 GMT -6
Been so long since we had a legitimate 8-12”+ followed by extreme cold storm. I’m so pumped.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 12:25:59 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 12:29:26 GMT -6
Euro is basically warning levels of each of Fr. Rain, Sleet and snow.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2022 12:37:46 GMT -6
Euro holds up the cold push dramatically compared to the other models. Outstanding.... I effing hate the Euro. Set that BLEEP on fire. Watch it be suppressed after the initial morning of heavy rain Kicker wave is a warning level storm by itself that run. Not really. If you live along i70 maybe. The models are getting really close to straight kicking this forum in the BLEEP. There is no more room for the trough axis to keep trending more SW/SE. These trends keep warming mid levels. On the Euro STL is barely in the snow versus sleet.. A slight slight tweak and the heavy snow axis will be sheared out and for Columbia to Decatur. So the Euro can roast |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 12:42:20 GMT -6
Kicker wave is a warning level storm by itself that run. Not really. If you live along i70 maybe. The models are getting really close to straight kicking this forum in the BLEEP. There is no more room for the trough axis to keep trending more SW/SE. These trends keep warming mid levels. On the Euro STL is barely in the snow versus sleet.. A slight slight tweak and the heavy snow axis will be sheared out and for Columbia to Decatur. So the Euro can roast I don’t see that happening with a 1050 high where it’s at. But I know where you’re coming from. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 12:43:44 GMT -6
UK met trended in the right direction. Euro has flipped and flopped more than any other model so far for this storm.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 30, 2022 12:49:00 GMT -6
Yup, that one sticks out well in my mind too. We had the intense thunder sleet in stg as well. Pretty sure we had thundersleet in Marissa with that one, too.
We've also had thunder freezing rain since our last batch of thundersnow, which was 1982 down here.
Yes we did ! The worst thunder sleet I remember was in either 90 or 91 ….. something like 5 inches of sleet |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2022 12:51:01 GMT -6
That's terrifying. Puke. Almost 2.5" of QPF and 15-25 percent of it is snow More NW. Less SE The amount of moving parts is a mess. I wont keep harping on the Euro. I'LL TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS & GEM. locl it up  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 30, 2022 12:54:26 GMT -6
UK met trended in the right direction. Euro has flipped and flopped more than any other model so far for this storm. The ensemble helps smooth those flip flops out. The 12z model data still strongly supports a major storm. I suspect sleet will be a major part of the storm south of I-70. It's just a matter of how big an impact on final totals it will have. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 12:56:40 GMT -6
Easy Frivolous, I would not stress out over that run , everything is is colder including its mean so far today most models have been very consistent. The GFS and GEM and there ensembles have been super consistent. The EPS also has been fairly consistent. The Euro and Ukmet have bounced around the most . We’re going to get hit with a multi day storm, I’m sure sleet will cut down on the fantasy totals being shown but should still be a very major storm for our area with a lot of impact from freezing rain/sleet/snow/wind/bitter cold . Not going to be fun on road crews , when you go from rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow with temps in the teens and some blowing snow . Roads will likely be a mess for a while
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