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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 13:13:34 GMT -6
EPS mean 10:1 snowfall Starting to see ensembles hone in on just north of downtown for the highest snow totals and tightening up the gradient south of 70 The metro looks to find itself in the p-type battleground with significant amount of ice/sleet/snow possible  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 30, 2022 13:14:57 GMT -6
Im toying with numbers now....
First settling on sleet totals which I think will be quite high...especially south of 70.
The 25th to 75th ranges definitely show the potential and the potential pitfalls.
It's sort of like calculus teying to monkey with these lol.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 13:17:15 GMT -6
I wish we had access to the UKMET ensembles. Actually I wish the UKMET, ECMWF, GFS, and GDPS each had a 100-member ensemble that we could combine into a 400-member super ensemble so that better statistical forecasts can be made. Ensembles are super useful for any time range but especially past 72 hours because they smooth out the noise. One of the reasons we were able to identify this system so far out is because ensembles were saying that given all the different ways the atmosphere could evolve most of them eventually led to a storm in the center of the country. Of course, they aren't the end-all be-all forecasting tools since they smooth out details like temperature and precipitation gradients, ptype boundaries, etc and their products are often in the form of a mean as opposed to a median which can skew your perception of the magnitude of the event if there are a few particularly egregious outliers in the mix.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 30, 2022 13:23:58 GMT -6
Im toying with numbers now.... First settling on sleet totals which I think will be quite high...especially south of 70. The 25th to 75th ranges definitely show the potential and the potential pitfalls. It's sort of like calculus teying to monkey with these lol. Like I've always heard, being a Met means you have to be REALLY good at math! |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 30, 2022 13:25:23 GMT -6
UK met trended in the right direction. Euro has flipped and flopped more than any other model so far for this storm. The ensemble helps smooth those flip flops out. The 12z model data still strongly supports a major storm. I suspect sleet will be a major part of the storm south of I-70. It's just a matter of how big an impact on final totals it will have. I’ll help you out—it’ll be a lot. Makes for a super tight gradient in good ol’ St Clair Co in IL. NW half of the county could get 6-8 inches of snow, and the SE half gets 2” of sleet with a couple inches of snow on top. Either way, it’s a big impact to travel, especially considering the rain that’s going to make pretreating useless. Edit: and the crashing temps that will eventually freeze everything into a solid block of ice. Likely no school for a few days either way, considering the rural areas. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 13:28:19 GMT -6
Heres the GEFS mean positive snow depth change from the 12z run A bit more useful than the those 10:1 maps  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 13:28:57 GMT -6
15z sref is starting to get in range.
Some massive outliers already showing up across the region.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 13:32:19 GMT -6
This is the 12Z GFS Cobb output table. Hour 97-98 looks awesome.
StnID: kstl Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
220201/1900Z 55 18006KT 45.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
220201/2000Z 56 18006KT 45.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100
220201/2100Z 57 18005KT 44.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100
220201/2200Z 58 17006KT 44.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100
220201/2300Z 59 17006KT 44.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 0| 0|100
220202/0000Z 60 VRB01KT 43.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220202/0100Z 61 34004KT 43.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 0| 0|100
220202/0200Z 62 36011KT 41.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 0| 0|100
220202/0300Z 63 01012KT 38.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 0| 0|100
220202/0400Z 64 36013KT 36.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 0| 0|100
220202/0500Z 65 36013KT 34.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 0| 0|100
220202/0600Z 66 36013KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220202/0700Z 67 36013KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 0| 0|100
220202/0800Z 68 36014KT 29.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.025 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.65 0| 0|100
220202/0900Z 69 36013KT 28.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.026 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.68 0| 0|100
220202/1000Z 70 36014KT 26.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.71 0| 9| 91
220202/1100Z 71 36012KT 25.4F SNPL 2:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.017 2:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.08|| 0.72 39| 61| 0
220202/1200Z 72 36011KT 24.9F SNPL 1:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.015 2:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.74 19| 81| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220202/1300Z 73 01012KT 24.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 2:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.74 0| 0| 0
220202/1400Z 74 01012KT 24.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 2:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.74 0| 0| 0
220202/1500Z 75 01013KT 22.9F SNPL 3:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.032 2:1| 0.1|| 0.08|| 0.08|| 0.77 45| 55| 0
220202/1600Z 76 01012KT 22.5F SNPL 6:1| 0.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.026 3:1| 0.3|| 0.10|| 0.08|| 0.80 63| 37| 0
220202/1700Z 77 02012KT 22.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 3:1| 0.3|| 0.10|| 0.08|| 0.80 0| 0| 0
220202/1800Z 78 01012KT 22.7F SNPL 3:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.013 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.08|| 0.81 35| 65| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220202/1900Z 79 01012KT 22.4F SNPL 3:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.020 3:1| 0.4|| 0.14|| 0.08|| 0.83 45| 55| 0
220202/2000Z 80 35011KT 22.2F SNPL 16:1| 0.7|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.044 7:1| 1.1|| 0.15|| 0.08|| 0.88 86| 14| 0
220202/2100Z 81 36012KT 22.5F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.010 7:1| 1.1|| 0.17|| 0.08|| 0.89 8| 92| 0
220202/2200Z 82 34011KT 22.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 7:1| 1.2|| 0.17|| 0.08|| 0.89 100| 0| 0
220202/2300Z 83 01011KT 22.2F SNPL 4:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.011 7:1| 1.2|| 0.18|| 0.08|| 0.91 63| 37| 0
220203/0000Z 84 02010KT 22.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 7:1| 1.4|| 0.18|| 0.08|| 0.93 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/0100Z 85 03012KT 22.4F SNPL 5:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.019 6:1| 1.5|| 0.20|| 0.08|| 0.95 37| 63| 0
220203/0200Z 86 02012KT 22.5F SNPL 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 7:1| 1.5|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 0.95 75| 25| 0
220203/0300Z 87 02010KT 22.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 7:1| 1.9|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 0.98 100| 0| 0
220203/0400Z 88 01012KT 21.8F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 7:1| 2.1|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.00 100| 0| 0
220203/0500Z 89 02013KT 21.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 8:1| 2.4|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.03 100| 0| 0
220203/0600Z 90 01012KT 21.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 8:1| 2.7|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.08 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/0700Z 91 01013KT 20.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 8:1| 3.1|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.12 100| 0| 0
220203/0800Z 92 36012KT 20.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 8:1| 3.4|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.16 100| 0| 0
220203/0900Z 93 01013KT 19.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 8:1| 3.8|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.21 100| 0| 0
220203/1000Z 94 01014KT 19.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 8:1| 4.0|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.24 100| 0| 0
220203/1100Z 95 01016KT 19.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 8:1| 4.4|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.29 100| 0| 0
220203/1200Z 96 02015KT 19.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 8:1| 4.8|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.32 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/1300Z 97 01014KT 20.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 8:1| 5.5|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.38 100| 0| 0
220203/1400Z 98 02015KT 20.4F SNOW 17:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.162 10:1| 8.3|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.54 100| 0| 0
220203/1500Z 99 01017KT 20.7F SNOW 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 10:1| 9.7|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.66 100| 0| 0
220203/1600Z 100 01017KT 21.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077 10:1| 10.4|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.74 100| 0| 0
220203/1700Z 101 01017KT 21.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 10:1| 11.1|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.81 100| 0| 0
220203/1800Z 102 01017KT 21.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 10:1| 11.4|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.87 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/1900Z 103 36017KT 20.6F SNOW 3:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 10:1| 11.6|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.92 100| 0| 0
220203/2000Z 104 01018KT 20.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 10:1| 11.8|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.95 100| 0| 0
220203/2100Z 105 01017KT 20.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 11.9|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.97 100| 0| 0
220203/2200Z 106 36017KT 20.6F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 10:1| 12.3|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 1.99 100| 0| 0
220203/2300Z 107 36017KT 18.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 12.5|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 2.00 100| 0| 0
220204/0000Z 108 36016KT 18.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 12.5|| 0.21|| 0.08|| 2.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 13:32:48 GMT -6
i can the metro getting 2-4 inches of sleet and 4-10 of snow
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 30, 2022 13:41:25 GMT -6
The ensemble helps smooth those flip flops out. The 12z model data still strongly supports a major storm. I suspect sleet will be a major part of the storm south of I-70. It's just a matter of how big an impact on final totals it will have. I’ll help you out—it’ll be a lot. Makes for a super tight gradient in good ol’ St Clair Co in IL. NW half of the county could get 6-8 inches of snow, and the SE half gets 2” of sleet with a couple inches of snow on top. Either way, it’s a big impact to travel, especially considering the rain that’s going to make pretreating useless. Edit: and the crashing temps that will eventually freeze everything into a solid block of ice. Likely no school for a few days either way, considering the rural areas. I just looked at our point forecast and we are just under 10 inches of snow….. what could possibly go wrong lol |
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iceman
Wishcaster
Arnold, MO
Posts: 104
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Post by iceman on Jan 30, 2022 13:59:06 GMT -6
No dry slot over STL? Must be to good to be true.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 30, 2022 14:02:09 GMT -6
TWC vomiting out deterministic model data. what a frickin mess that place is
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 30, 2022 14:05:55 GMT -6
No dry slot over STL? Must be to good to be true. Don’t get ahead of yourself. That’s step 10. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 14:12:58 GMT -6
TWC vomiting out deterministic model data. what a frickin mess that place is !AccuNotWx! has more pre-recorded stuff during slow times, but overall their quality of content is much better and level-headed. It reminds me of what TWC was in the 90s/2000s. NBC taking over control of TWC was the death toll. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 14:17:03 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 30, 2022 14:18:09 GMT -6
TWC vomiting out deterministic model data. what a frickin mess that place is They have the storm named so that's covered no matter how snafu'd they are. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2022 14:29:12 GMT -6
I’ll help you out—it’ll be a lot. Makes for a super tight gradient in good ol’ St Clair Co in IL. NW half of the county could get 6-8 inches of snow, and the SE half gets 2” of sleet with a couple inches of snow on top. Either way, it’s a big impact to travel, especially considering the rain that’s going to make pretreating useless. Edit: and the crashing temps that will eventually freeze everything into a solid block of ice. Likely no school for a few days either way, considering the rural areas. I just looked at our point forecast and we are just under 10 inches of snow….. what could possibly go wrong lol This early? That's crazy |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 14:31:12 GMT -6
I just looked at our point forecast and we are just under 10 inches of snow….. what could possibly go wrong lol This early? That's crazy Where you seeing that? Point forecasts from NWS do not say that. TWC is saying 6-10 for STL. That’s the only place I’ve seen numbers for the whole event. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 14:33:35 GMT -6
The 18Z NBM forecast has the snowfall maxima axis northwest of the metro area.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 14:35:11 GMT -6
NAM coming in considerably warmer at the start...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 14:37:12 GMT -6
NAM looks looks terrible. More northerly track, warmer and when temps finally do drop Wave 1 is done.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 14:38:46 GMT -6
NAM coming in considerably warmer at the start... It’s just falling in line with the other guidance. It was a cold outlier in its earlier runs. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 14:39:27 GMT -6
1.5" of plain rain on the NAM, round 2 coming in though at the end. Might fair better if it went farther as it would be less suppressed, so might get more sleet/snow then.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 30, 2022 14:39:55 GMT -6
My track record has been pretty bad this season. Maybe I'll keep up that trend with a surprise on the upside.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 14:40:03 GMT -6
“Toss the NAM. It’s not in its reliability window.”
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 30, 2022 14:40:59 GMT -6
Now the STL curse kicks in on the weather models. Ugh
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 14:41:05 GMT -6
The 18Z NBM forecast has the snowfall maxima axis northwest of the metro area. That's a pretty big shift northwest, and weaker on amounts. Here comes the 'reality' check? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2022 14:41:19 GMT -6
Like Folks along 70 and North sitting good.
But along and South of 44/64 could easily end up with essentially nothing to 2".
Any chance of snow with wave #1 South of 70 is over.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 14:41:54 GMT -6
Yep it’s right where everything else is maybe a touch warmer. It has freezing rain and sleet most of the day Wednesday temps 25-28 in the metro
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 14:43:56 GMT -6
Yes I think wave 1 is sleet freezing rain , I don’t see much snow in the first wave and yes southern folks might be mostly cold rain or some freezing rain on Wednesday until the second round comes through.
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