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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 9:51:32 GMT -6
12z gfs isn’t giving in either, so one camp is going to look really bad come Thursday. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2022 10:00:11 GMT -6
The 6z euro still had the same look as the RGEM, maybe a little north, but still a decent amount of ice and snow in the metro area . The GFS /Icon/GEFS have been rock solid on there forecast as well
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2022 10:03:43 GMT -6
12z gem still colder and south
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 10:10:28 GMT -6
FWIW, the 9z RAP is 150 miles south of the NAM
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 10:19:55 GMT -6
Its been baby steps, but the GEFS has been coming in incrementally less amplified each run. Seems like the GFS and euro are trying to meet in the middle  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 10:30:10 GMT -6
Longer range is still showing quite the set up around D7 and D8.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 15, 2022 10:32:51 GMT -6
This is the portion of the show where I feel bad for people like Chris. Unlike rain, frozen precip is a game changer and regardless of freezing rain, sleet or snow, over estimating and getting nothing is frustrating as is underestimating and getting significantly more is even more worrysome. Just a tough forecast right now.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 10:33:57 GMT -6
12z ukmet trends slightly north again.
Still good from 70 on north, but it is a trend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 10:41:02 GMT -6
12z ukmet trends slightly north again. Still good from 70 on north, but it is a trend. mid level low goes right up 44 that run
not a great track if you want snow in the metro
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 10:46:10 GMT -6
Oh well. Sucks but Let it rain, enjoy the spring weather this weekend and hopefully we get a shot next week at something.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2022 10:55:12 GMT -6
I don't think this is such a tough forecast for the much of the area. The transition area will likely be fairly brief not more than .1 freeing rain and a couple tenths of sleet. 85% of this is rain in the metro 2-3 inches in places. Mudfest 2022
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 15, 2022 11:40:47 GMT -6
No matter what happens the rest of the winter, and no it hasn't been great, but at least the words "groundhog day storm" will no longer live in infamy. And will be something we can remember fondly. Lol The previous GHD storm I remember fondly. STL metro was pounded by sleet that snuck in literally 12 hours before the event while I received an epic blizzard. Good times. |
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Post by weatherj on Feb 15, 2022 11:44:56 GMT -6
I've come to grips with this being nearly an all rain event where I am. I was on the southeast edge of the colder solutions. If we can salvage one more widespread winter storm for the entire CWA, I can live with a rain event.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 11:51:09 GMT -6
No matter what happens the rest of the winter, and no it hasn't been great, but at least the words "groundhog day storm" will no longer live in infamy. And will be something we can remember fondly. Lol The previous GHD storm I remember fondly. STL metro was pounded by sleet that snuck in literally 12 hours before the event while I received an epic blizzard. Good times. I still remember trying to chip out the driveway from several inches of sleet that compacted and froze into a solid sheet of ice. Had to use a shovel and axe pick. Fun times. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 15, 2022 12:03:09 GMT -6
I hope it’s rain. I just have one more check up before it all starts over in 5 month.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 12:07:11 GMT -6
12z euro not really budging either.
Ice into the STL area and snow across the far northern counties.
I would base my forecast off of it given the 2 other model camp extremes.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 15, 2022 12:10:13 GMT -6
12z euro not really budging either. Ice into the STL area and snow across the far northern counties. Saw that, holding serve with its placement with roughly the same pressure. Battle of the models |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 15, 2022 12:56:06 GMT -6
As mentioned, mid next week may be significant. When the Euro latches on to a big overrunning setup at this range, it is very solid. The 12z run continues to show this today, along with general support from the GEM and GFS.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 13:01:28 GMT -6
Soundings from the 12z euro show a period of freezing rain followed up by sleet for the metro. Looks like the column starts to dry out as we kick over to snow.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 13:10:44 GMT -6
Thats a notable shift south on the 12z EPS. Surface lows are clustered near the bootheel. Its snowfield jumped south as well   |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 13:18:41 GMT -6
Thats a notable shift south on the 12z EPS. Surface lows are clustered near the bootheel. Its snowfield jumped south as well Crazy that not a single member is really close to what GFS/NAM actually show. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 13:21:26 GMT -6
I would assume GFS and NAM make quite the SE correction at 18z/00z
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 15, 2022 13:29:37 GMT -6
Pretty straightforward for most of us. Challenges west and north, north of warrenton and troy. We need rain but not heavy rain. Just a prolonged soaking rain, the kind that will soak into the soil. Agree with the potential for flash flooding and im not sure but i thought i saw one issued for the lincoln wfo.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 15, 2022 13:30:11 GMT -6
I would assume GFS and NAM make quite the SE correction at 18z/00z If that happens, quite a few folks will be upset one way or the other. Those expecting/hoping for snow north of me will end up with very little. Those south of me hoping for just rain will be upset over the ice. This storm is sure to please no one. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 13:32:21 GMT -6
Ok everyone general consensus, what do we really think may happen in the st.charles county area, is this a non event with just flooding rain, a advisory, or possibly a warning because of sleet. i genuinely have no idea what to think in my area.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 13:33:10 GMT -6
I would assume GFS and NAM make quite the SE correction at 18z/00z If that happens, quite a few folks will be upset one way or the other. Those expecting/hoping for snow north of me will end up with very little. Those south of me hoping for just rain will be upset over the ice. This storm is sure to please no one. Yep. It is hard to ignore the fact that we have seen this too many times when there is a model war like this. Although, I can't remember one this extreme this close to the event. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 13:34:15 GMT -6
Ok everyone general consensus, what do we really think may happen in the st.charles county area, is this a non event with just flooding rain, a advisory, or possibly a warning because of sleet. i genuinely have no idea what to think in my area. Highly doubt anyone gets a warning in our CWA but I think St Charles sees at least a couple hours of ZR/IP Thursday during the day. |
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Post by weatherj on Feb 15, 2022 13:35:44 GMT -6
If that happens, quite a few folks will be upset one way or the other. Those expecting/hoping for snow north of me will end up with very little. Those south of me hoping for just rain will be upset over the ice. This storm is sure to please no one. Yep. It is hard to ignore the fact that we have seen this too many times when there is a model war like this. Although, I can't remember one this extreme this close to the event. I was thinking the same thing. Most of the time the model war shifts into one solid camp within 48 hours and as you said...I've never seen one quite this extreme where you're talking 150-200 miles apart. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 13:37:25 GMT -6
Thank you cardsweather
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 15, 2022 13:43:42 GMT -6
I didn't do a deep dig so I apologize in advance but are we cooler than modeled today or were the 60's more modeled for tomorrow? Find it so unusual that we are 48 hours out with no real consensus except that it will initially rain, a lot.
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