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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2022 13:46:04 GMT -6
Currently at 64° at my house/shop. Southern Warren County MO
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 13:47:54 GMT -6
HRRR has surface low scooting across Northern Arkansas heading toward Bootheel. 850 is a bit N of that.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 14:00:45 GMT -6
Now I’m rooting for the nam and gfs to hold serve for another 24 hours.
At that point, I think this would be the longest model battle I can remember which would be fun.
Let’s see if the 18z nam feels like joining the other side…
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2022 14:05:43 GMT -6
So great we have followed a Chicago snow storm for days while it was obviously never happening here.
Bummer.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 14:10:43 GMT -6
So great we have followed a Chicago snow storm for days while it was obviously never happening here. Bummer. You literally made a map yesterday that had parts of the metro getting 6-10 inches… Only the gfs, nam, and FV3 really have this as a Chicago storm. More than likely I get missed south and the metro gets missed north while Chris’ Columbia to Kankakee line gets 6-10 inches. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 14:19:55 GMT -6
18z nam is weaker and a touch south of previous runs, but still north of the other model camp.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 15, 2022 14:21:22 GMT -6
KC and central to Northern MO are definitely the hot spots with this upcoming system. KC I know didn't get as much snow as parts of the NW STL metro did with our post GHD day storm. I guess the atmosphere is trying to share some snow with them and saying we've had enough w/ this system last least.
I agree cards, I see another system of interest in the D7-8 range.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 14:24:24 GMT -6
Ya looks like the NAM just blinked.
Given how the GEFS has been trending I bet we see the GFS scoot south as well
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 14:27:16 GMT -6
Ya looks like the NAM just blinked. Given how the GEFS has been trending I bet we see the GFS scoot south as well Probably 50 miles south jog. I bet we see another 50 mile jog at 00z. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 14:35:21 GMT -6
I remember the days where the models use to switch camps. They don’t seem to really do that anymore.
This place would really lose it if the nam and gfs came in looking like the ggem and vice versa tonight.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 14:52:10 GMT -6
Flood watch is up
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 14:54:49 GMT -6
Winter storm watch for the far northern CWA as well |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 15:04:26 GMT -6
The springfield Illinois winter storm watch seems too far south, compared to the watch in our cwfa. almost like our guys are using gfs and nam, and they are using gem, euro, and uckie lol
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 15:15:36 GMT -6
rgem is actually a bit south slightly. very interesting. gets impactful ice still in metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 15:54:39 GMT -6
GFS took a step south
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 16:13:12 GMT -6
Ensembles are a bit south too. Looks like there will be a meeting in the middle pretty close to what Chris predicted a couple days ago. I guess that is why he gets paid to do this. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 16:19:55 GMT -6
Every GEFS member takes the surface low S of metro now  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 16:31:00 GMT -6
21z RAP is amped.
It has taken over as the northern outlier
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 15, 2022 16:38:37 GMT -6
The Ark is ready in Ballwin. 🌧 ☔️
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 15, 2022 17:07:06 GMT -6
This thing is all over the place and people are already posting the clown maps.
SPI has a WS watch for the ice and snow potential. My vote is less ice and more snow.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 17:15:11 GMT -6
Our in house IBM model... which I will NOT show a picture of...has the cold air arriving early and dumps 4-6 of snow over much of metro STL.
It has been less than accurate and tends to be too aggressive with cold.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 17:21:50 GMT -6
This is my latest map with my thoughts on this storm...  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2022 17:31:24 GMT -6
this storm sucks. Next
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 15, 2022 17:49:27 GMT -6
It all comes out as soon as Chris posted that map and it's nothing epic, huh? Lol!!!! |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 15, 2022 18:04:35 GMT -6
Chris, After that teaser, Can I 'assume' you did not give much weight to the IBM model?  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2022 18:07:41 GMT -6
No..i've seen this coming for 2 days.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2022 18:08:38 GMT -6
Don’t worry Glenn showed the IBM model just a bit ago. 😂
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 18:09:20 GMT -6
18z euro continues the south scoot
Northern counties are in the heavy snow band while the metro sees a hit of fzr/sleet followed by some deformation snow
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 18:18:07 GMT -6
It would be something if we get 2 to 4 inches of winter stuff in the metro with these trends, or even more comical if the model Chris alluded too is actually correct for this one storm lol
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 15, 2022 18:27:10 GMT -6
18z euro continues the south scoot Northern counties are in the heavy snow band while the metro sees a hit of fzr/sleet followed by some deformation snow Moves surface low south of Cape |
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