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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2022 8:47:16 GMT -6
Thanks...some flurry/SNSH activity in Brighton currently and a brisk 16*
That's a really cool link, Chris! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 9:36:44 GMT -6
ICON continues to be a heavy hit of ice and snow Thursday
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2022 9:44:20 GMT -6
There’s been a pretty big colder trend on some of the models, the Ukmet and Icon have definitely trended much colder the last 24 hours.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2022 9:51:01 GMT -6
Definitely trending the right way…. Let’s hope it continues!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 10:07:45 GMT -6
12z gfs looks good.
Game on
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 10:08:56 GMT -6
yeah, pretty dramatic changes the last 24 hrs
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 12, 2022 10:12:10 GMT -6
Flurries past couple hours KFAM
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 10:12:38 GMT -6
Storm motion is fast, so I think the top end potential is capped unless the deformation zone overlaps the WAA.
Still, the deformation zone has been modeled to be intense, so I could see a 4-8 inch type backside hit for the metro if it lines up right.
Moisture is really being held tight to the surface low on most runs which is interesting too.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 10:12:51 GMT -6
06z euro control run was a heavy hit of backside snow as well. Maximum looked right up 44
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 10:14:06 GMT -6
06z euro control run was a heavy hit of backside snow as well. Maximum looked right up 44 Yeah, but look at the individual member distribution, all over the place. North, south, and nothing camps. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2022 10:34:48 GMT -6
A little farther south would be fine  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 10:39:01 GMT -6
GEFS continues to signal a flatter and quicker system. There’s barely a closed surface low on the mean charts anymore
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 10:41:18 GMT -6
GEFS continues to signal a flatter and quicker system. There’s barely a closed surface low on the mean charts anymore Ugly look there, would be a hell of a coup by the ggem if it’s right. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 10:49:12 GMT -6
ind members of GEFS are all over as well. Less consensus as we get closer it seems..though weaker and flatter over all
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2022 10:52:20 GMT -6
Ukmet still looks good for backside accumulating snow
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 10:53:44 GMT -6
GEM is a glorified cold front..not much here..central IL hogs it
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 11:02:21 GMT -6
GEFS mean MSLP the last several runs valid for Thursday morning  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2022 11:43:50 GMT -6
So... I don't have much to add at this point to next week except that this may have a similar look to GHD2.0 but does appear to be lacking a bit in the cold air department. I'm approaching my build up to this as more of a wet weather system with the chance for a "cleansing rain" that will help wash the salt and remnants of the last storm away. That being said... there could be a March-like element to the tail end of this system with a transition to wet snow as cold air finally arrives. But lots of time to go before we even begin to look at details. So... I plucked this link off a facebook page this evening... and holy cow! It may be the coolest webpage I've seen in a long time. Live soundings and balloon tracking anyone? tracker.sondehub.org/?fbclid=IwAR37Y8Geo_VnMA5e6QCWS6C2QETcIeKYY83-G-1Ui9caVdJ1pLGKoTzBnPE#!mt=Mapnik&mz=5&qm=3h&mc=40.11169,-90.26367&f=20049881 That might be the greatest website on the ENTIRETY OF THE INTERNET'S |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2022 12:13:08 GMT -6
The look at H5 is not very good.
There is just no jet support to help dig this.
Getting it to come out flat and be wound up for a trowel.
Is not happening
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 12:25:26 GMT -6
12z euro is comically far south with the surface low.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 12:26:38 GMT -6
12z euro is comically far south with the surface low. Flat as a pancake and looks like a big ice storm verbatim |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2022 12:30:41 GMT -6
What a massive shift in the models in 24 hours. All the weather maps put out the last couple days on social media showing Iowa and Wisconsin getting blasted with heavy snow now they basically have nothing
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 12:32:51 GMT -6
looks like the focus is becoming the great lakes area, while we get rain, then whiffed maybe by some winter stuff
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2022 12:34:04 GMT -6
Euro looks like gem now basically nothing here
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 12:35:28 GMT -6
12z euro is comically far south with the surface low. Flat as a pancake and looks like a big ice storm verbatim Not really seeing that, at least for the metro. Maybe in the far northern counties with the WAA and then south central Illinois with whatever energy is left. Looks like a classic split to me with interesting weather northwest and then southeast. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 12:37:11 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 12:37:56 GMT -6
Flat as a pancake and looks like a big ice storm verbatim Not really seeing that, at least for the metro. Maybe in south central Illinois.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 12:39:51 GMT -6
Yeah, the majority of the icing is in Illinois. Some of that QPF is at borderline temps in STL.
Not saying no ice, but not a significant storm there for most west of the Mississippi.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2022 12:56:40 GMT -6
Definitely not a significant storm but a much better outlook than yesterday with a decent chance of wintry precipitation
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2022 12:58:33 GMT -6
We could easily end up with 1-3” or more of ice and snow
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