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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 13:00:47 GMT -6
Looking further out, the cold air looks to be done being entrenched for any extended time, but still seems available at the Canadian border to be tapped by storms moving through. Seems like there should be multiple chances for backside wet snow through early March and then we all know what happens.
Snow pack season is over, so hopefully we can get a couple healthy backside snows to tide us over until next season.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 13:17:49 GMT -6
The EPS continues to dwindle and go toward more great lakes action. What looked like a big midwest storm is now a big fat turd
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 13:22:11 GMT -6
The EPS continues to dwindle and go toward more great lakes action. What looked like a big midwest storm is now a big fat turd Definitely trending towards an overrunning event rather than a wrapped up low. Still plenty of moisture around here to work with, just a matter of how much falls as rain/ice/snow. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2022 14:05:19 GMT -6
I'm leaning towards a much more subdued version of GHD next week...and focused a bit further N over all. I'm thinking along the lines of Landscaper with snowfall/icing amounts in the advisory range potentially for parts of the region.
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 12, 2022 14:21:17 GMT -6
I won’t be disappointed if this one disappears. Im done with the snow for the season.
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Feb 12, 2022 14:24:24 GMT -6
Last week’s system the models were very constant overall for 7-10 days. Very rare, this next system is more like normal. There has and probably will be more major shifts next 48 hours
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 14:41:23 GMT -6
EPS p-type probability  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2022 14:45:00 GMT -6
Last week’s system the models were very constant overall for 7-10 days. Very rare, this next system is more like normal. There has and probably will be more major shifts next 48 hours Not sure I'd say major shifts...but definitely wobbles in the exact track and thermo profile for sure. Models are slowly honing in on a track of the SLP(s) near our wheelhouse and the shearing mid-level vort max just a bit too far north to bullseye the Metro...but still getting some snow going on the tail end. The SLP trend GIF that 920 posted shows a slight westward adjustment of the upstream ridge...which would suggest a nudge N is possible. But most of the current guidance seems to be getting the boundary through, which supports a transition to frozen precip later in the storm. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 12, 2022 15:03:04 GMT -6
I’d say at this point, the cold is likely underdone by a few degrees. Changeover is likely too fast by 6 hours as well. More and more likely this is an over-running event as opposed to a cyclone.
But, one thing I noticed with GHD, is that there was some back-building. IF you can get under a good band accumulations can pile up fast.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2022 15:20:49 GMT -6
I’d say at this point, the cold is likely underdone by a few degrees. Changeover is likely too fast by 6 hours as well. More and more likely this is an over-running event as opposed to a cyclone. But, one thing I noticed with GHD, is that there was some back-building. IF you can get under a good band accumulations can pile up fast. Yes...mod/heavy snow potential is there for sure. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 15:30:45 GMT -6
18z Icon looks great for the central and northern metro.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 15:32:54 GMT -6
Leading up to this cyclone, details are much clearer. A baroclinic
zone/cold front is forecast to move southeastward through the
Central Plains and Midwest on Wednesday. Along and north of this
front, strengthening low to mid-level isentropic lift and WAA is
expected to drive development of increasingly widespread rain, that
shifts southeastward into the CWA through the day Wednesday. A
rumble or two of thunder is even possible owing to the potential for
marginal elevated instability to be present. An increasingly deep
cold airmass is expected to also arrive behind this front Wednesday
evening, transitioning the northwestern edge of the rain to mixed
wintry precip. By Wednesday evening, forecast confidence decreases
upon approach and arrival of the cyclone, which, depending on its
strength, could modulate the position and southeastern movement of
the boundary. Most members of the GEFS are clustered around a
surface cyclone track across southeastern MO; however, members of
the EPS are more spread between a southeastern MO track and a track
across the CWA. A track across southeastern MO has the most support
at this juncture which would suggest rain continuing to gradually
change to mixed wintry precip and then snow from northwest to
southeast across the CWA as the cold airmass would be able to
continue advancing southeastward, to the left of the surface cyclone
track. The possible more northerly track of a more quickly deepening
cyclone, noted in some members of the EPS, would keep most wintry
precip in the northwestern CWA in favor of more rain, possibly
heavy, and even thunderstorms across southeastern MO and
southwestern IL.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 16:09:03 GMT -6
18z gfs is probably the ideal run for STL given the setup.
Powerful deformation zone snow that drops 4-8 inches in 6 hours.
If the darn thing would slow down even a little it would be nice.
Fun run though, much better than the glorified cold front the ggem has.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 16:10:10 GMT -6
18z gfs for 1400 Mayim
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 16:11:18 GMT -6
It would hurt your no snow forecast |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2022 16:15:30 GMT -6
18z gfs is probably the ideal run for STL given the setup. Powerful deformation zone snow that drops 4-8 inches in 6 hours. If the darn thing would slow down even a little it would be nice. Fun run though, much better than the glorified cold front the ggem has. I don't want any more than that...not joking, lol. I love snow as much as anybody, but that last storm about broke me mentally and physically dealing with all the stuff around the homestead. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 16:26:54 GMT -6
It would hurt your no snow forecast dems da breaks lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 16:35:22 GMT -6
Large spread in the 18z gfs ensembles still. Doesn’t inspire confidence in the operational yet.
South/weaker camp seems to carry this ensemble suite overall though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 16:45:55 GMT -6
GEFS mean snowfall looks pretty good that run. Similar to the Canadian ensembles.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2022 16:50:16 GMT -6
COU to SPI...looks awfully familiar
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2022 17:02:25 GMT -6
With the data today, To start off , I like the1-3” for the metro, maybe a 2-5” band north and west of the metro . Just a wild guess. It’s really a crap shoot right now , some models have a deformation zone , some don’t . We normally don’t get more than 3-6” from a good def zone , it has happened but rarely. Lots of time , basically five days still. Hopefully models will develop more of a “consensus “ by tomorrow night.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2022 17:08:31 GMT -6
The progressive and shearing nature of the mid-level shortwave is going to make it tough to get a long duration of heavy snowfall unless this thing wraps up and puts on the brakes...and I don't see that happening. But there should be a psudo-deformation band tied to the mid-level shortwave and very supportive jet dynamics/frontogenesis. Models are suggesting coupling and strong diffluence once again...similar to GHD. It's a pretty potent looking storm...fairly compact...but definitely not not a long-duration monster or a wrapped up bomb. I'm calling these storms "panhandle sliders" from here out.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 17:16:16 GMT -6
i want mine with cheese
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2022 17:21:21 GMT -6
You ever get any of those 1921 sliders? You missed out if not...they were really good. I wish they had them all the time...I'd pay extra for the goodies for sure. Maybe I'll just make them myself.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 17:59:53 GMT -6
i wanted to try the 1921's, never got the chance.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 12, 2022 18:43:07 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2022 19:23:47 GMT -6
euro 18z control is cool...ensembles are very 'meh'
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2022 19:47:19 GMT -6
What’s the control run show ?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2022 19:52:46 GMT -6
What’s the control run show ? Stripe of heavy snow for parts of the area. Probably some icing just south of there  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2022 21:35:19 GMT -6
00z Icon looks the same as when I woke up this morning.
Strong run to run consistency developing with that model.
Pretty big hit of ice for the central and northern metro and a band of heavy snow across the northern tier of counties.
The forward speed of this storm is crazy. But, some of these runs are showing 2” per hour rates in a potential deformation band.
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