Chris's Corner - Valentines Day Week 2022

I guess it depends on your winter grading system. Mine is still skewed from Nebraska winters and that's OK. I have gotten used to it here. Like the area sans winter!

I would say C+ for St. Louis county and B- for St Charles county, one more decent storm or a couple small ones would definitely help bump things up. St Charles county is sitting 15-16” on the season, not to far off it’s normal total

Euro control continues to look good, the ensembles continue to look meh

EPS favors a KC to Chi corridor for max snowfall.

This will not be the same storm where everyone in the viewing area is happy. Hope you Yankees enjoy this one .

I fully understand grading this winter so far as a whole. I like to break into two parts: temps and snowfall. December for temps and snowfall was a big fat "F" hands down. I must respect the amazing overall warmth and the severe set ups here and across the country though...no shortage of action for sure, just the wrong type. January for me was a solid "B" for temps, but snowfall was a " D- " at best. We have yet to see how the whole month of February turns out but something tells me we will all be happy by months end. The winter storm the week before last already elevates the grade.

I would call the 12z euro ensemble spread very large. Again, hard to have confidence in the operational run when the members have everything from a Green Bay storm to a glorified cold front.

The problem with the mean is that it is less valuable when there is significant dispersion in the distribution.

Looks like if you extrapolate the 18z nam it’s in the gfs camp.

Has the storm been sampled?

The primary bundle of energy will come ashore by Monday PM or Tuesday AM. The kicker energy is giving models fits still and that won't really enter the RAOB network until Wednesday AM. But the spread should start to narrow with the next several runs.

On Wednesday, the stage becomes set for the widespread precip event
of interest. Global model guidance are in good agreement that the
aforementioned upper-level closed low will be ejected northeastward
from the Desert Southwest through the Central/Southern Plains by an
upstream upper-level shortwave trough moving equatorward, closely
behind the closed low. Once ejected northeastward, this closed low
is then forecast conjure low-level/surface cyclogenesis in the
Southern Plains as it interacts with a northern stream upper-level
trough digging into the northern half of the CONUS. Timing and
amplitude differences in this northern stream trough have been
highlight by both model guidance and WPC cluster analysis EOF
patterns to be a source of forecast uncertainty, as it could play a
pivotal role in the sharpness and poleward movement of the closed
low. This track of the closed low will have implications for how
quickly the attendant low-level/surface cyclone deepens/matures and
exactly where it tracks.

Leading up to arrival of this cyclone to the CWA, details remain
significantly clearer. A baroclinic zone/cold front is expected to
progress southeastward across the Central Plains and Midwest through
the day Wednesday. Strengthening ascent stemming from mid-level
height falls as well as low to mid-level frontogenesis and
isentropic lift will promote development of increasingly widespread
rain in proximity to the cold front, that will shift southeastward
into the CWA through the afternoon and evening. Some marginal
elevated instability could also support a rumble or two of thunder.
The leading edge of an increasingly deep layer of sub-freezing air
rooted at the surface is expected to undercut the back edge of the
rain, promoting a general transition from rain to, possibly,
freezing rain and sleet, and then snow. This zone of wintry precip
is expected to move into the northwestern CWA sometime Wednesday
night. However, the subsequent evolution of precip; including type,
amount, and distribution will be at the mercy of the exact track and
maturity of low-level/surface cyclone progged to reach the mid-
Mississippi River Valley around Thursday morning. However, these
characteristics of the cyclone are plagued with uncertainty
inherited from the interaction of the closed low with the northern
stream trough.

Currently, possible scenarios for the behavior of the cyclone range
from a weaker, frontal or open wave cyclone the tracks at the
surface near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers to a
track of a stronger, more mature cyclone that tracks at the surface
across the CWA. The former solution, as the case 24 hours ago, still
has the most support from EPS and GEFS members, which would favor
impactful wintry precip over a large portion of the CWA as the
undercutting sub-freezing air is allowed to progress more quickly
southeastward. While the latter solution--a minority among latest
guidance, would favor impactful wintry precip remaining confined to
the northwestern third of the CWA and perhaps thunderstorms skirting
the southeastern portion of CWA. Considering both possible
scenarios, the EPS and GEFS derived probabilities of snowfall
greater than 3" are highest across northeastern MO/west-central IL
ranging from 20 to 50 percent.

You'll learn one day

Two more weeks... well, almost.

Gfs remains a strong cutter, we are 55 rain at 6am on Thursday with the GFS and Euro and Gem have us 32 and below with ice… I’m surprised there is this much spread in things