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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2022 18:48:00 GMT -6
not buying into the north solution that the GFS is depicting. Still thinking we will see wagons south in the coming days. idk if what that really means for sensible weather here. But I am thinking a surface low track across the bootheel, very similar to what the ec is depicting for now.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2022 18:50:49 GMT -6
also, ec depicting more storiminess that last week of February. That has my attn as well.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 13, 2022 20:00:56 GMT -6
mile difference will do. to true winter weather, you don't really have to go much more north of here. If you draw a line from KC through Bowling Green, North of there, you have some decent winter weather that we miss out on around here. My in laws up near Monroe City usually have a better winter weather wise than we have here. Kind of amazing what a 50 to 100 mile difference will do.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 20:34:05 GMT -6
18z euro control shifted north.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 20:51:48 GMT -6
NAM looks like a similar setup to euro at 84 hour
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 21:19:04 GMT -6
RGEM is cold and icy for the metro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 21:28:42 GMT -6
00z Icon primary snow band is Columbia to Springfield, with light accumulation down into St. Charles .
Still drooling over the 2” per hour rates it has in the heaviest band.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 21:33:15 GMT -6
Icon looks like heavier snow north west of the metro with more ice in the northern metro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 22:01:34 GMT -6
00z gfs remains strong and north.
Not sure I’ve ever seen snowfall output of 18-24 inches in 6 hours in the Midwest…
That is a Nor’easter like death band being modeled.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 13, 2022 22:07:00 GMT -6
00z gfs remains strong and north. Boo! |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 22:13:51 GMT -6
Gem still looks good on the black and white charts , looks cold still but more precipitation then past runs
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2022 22:17:47 GMT -6
This is definitely a Northern MO to Chicago storm.
Like Troy to Litchfield will be the far Southern edge.
There isn't enough confluence to our ENE to mitigate the energy from coming out and moving to far North.
I was wrong on the last storm bad so hopefully I am again.
But I doubt it.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 22:21:41 GMT -6
Gem and Gfs are worlds apart on their forecasts and both are very consistent. Only one will be correct. Something in between would likely be a nice storm for us in the metro. I would much rather see the colder solutions a s less precipitation than heavy rain to cold . Who knows, it’s definitely not set in stone by any means
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2022 22:25:40 GMT -6
This is definitely a Northern MO to Chicago storm. Like Troy to Litchfield will be the far Southern edge. There isn't enough confluence to our ENE to mitigate the energy from coming out and moving to far North. I was wrong on the last storm bad so hopefully I am again. But I doubt it. Well the gfs is that way. It has a more shadow Shallow trough. The rgem has to a very possible look and it would bring an ice and snow crusher to 44/70. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2022 22:26:19 GMT -6
This is definitely a Northern MO to Chicago storm. Like Troy to Litchfield will be the far Southern edge. There isn't enough confluence to our ENE to mitigate the energy from coming out and moving to far North. I was wrong on the last storm bad so hopefully I am again. But I doubt it. I'm going to say the metro has an advisory type event... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 22:29:38 GMT -6
And just like that, fantastic clustering on the 00z gfs ensembles.
It’s in the north camp in support of the operational run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 22:35:45 GMT -6
00z ukmet still looks good for the metro.
In fact, it has the optimal outcome given the ingredients.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2022 22:36:08 GMT -6
And just like that, fantastic clustering on the 00z gfs ensembles. It’s in the north camp in support of the operational run. Ya starting to see some pretty good convergence in the global ensembles.
GEFS and EPS both favoring KC to CHI for snowfall
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2022 22:38:16 GMT -6
FWIW 12z Canadian ensembles favor right up 44 for the most snowfall
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2022 22:38:51 GMT -6
The ukmet smokes the northern 2/3rds with 6-10".  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2022 22:42:22 GMT -6
Im still pretty skeptical of the amped up solution like the GFS has been showing, That has not been the norm the last few seasons around here. Idk, might just be wish casting but a more subdued and flatter solution like the GEM/Ukmet is where I would put my money.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2022 22:44:55 GMT -6
I have my money on the Icon.
Max band between Columbia and Springfield with 1-3 inches and some light icing possible from STL northward.
There isn’t anything too amazingly strong over the top (and it’s more west based than GHD).
Also, it’s undeniable a pattern change has occurred meaning past trends have less merit to what happens this go around.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 22:47:19 GMT -6
I agree maybe it’s right this time but I don’t think that’s how this plays out. Last storm, the cold air and snow line way out paced the models. More of the Euro/Gem/Ukmet set up. Maybe the gfs will be right, I highly doubt it will be a 993 -995 low going over top of us or north west of us .
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2022 22:52:14 GMT -6
Wow the GEFS did take a huge shift north and a bunch of amped up solutions. Basically takes all the snow off the table. That’s not good… On to the Euro.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 0:22:02 GMT -6
Euro looks similar to the UKIE/GEM solution with a flatter system that puts the area in a good spot for ice/snow
Still need to see what the EPS shows
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 14, 2022 4:10:25 GMT -6
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Mon Feb 14 2022
Focus then turns to storm system Wednesday into Thursday and the
potential for widespread rainfall followed by the potential for
accumulating wintry precipitation.
The upper pattern will become more amplified by midweek as an upper
low will drop into the southwest CONUS at the same time that an
upper trough will dig into south central Canada. There remains some
differences in the details between the deterministic models and
their ensemble members on how quickly the first trough will eject
out of the southwest low and how well it will phase with the
northern stream. This will ultimately determine how quickly the
front will move through the region and how this will determine
precipitation types and amounts. At this point, the WPC Cluster
Analysis is favoring a consistent solution that is more in line with
a well phased system.
With this said, will go with increasing PoPs on Wednesday from
northwest to southeast for all rain as ascent and moisture transport
increases across the area. Wednesday night will be very complicated
as the front will move across the entire CWA from northwest to
southeast. There will also be a chance of thunderstorms ahead of the
front during this period as MUCAPES increase to around 500 J/kg.
PWATS will also be over 1" which will bring the potential for heavy
rainfall rates with most of the CWA getting 1-2" of rain before the
changeover to snow. While there remains a some uncertainty, both
forecast soundings and forecast plumes are showing the potential for
a narrow band of freezing rain and sleet before the rain changes to
snow Wednesday night into Thursday as the cold air continues to move
southeast across the area. The most likely location for
accumulating snow remains Wednesday night into Thursday across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. The
ascent will end by Thursday evening as the trough moves off to the
east.
Still looks like Friday into Sunday will be dry as subsidence moves
in behind the trough as does a large surface high. Temperatures on
Thursday will be much colder behind the front, but will moderate
over the weekend.
Britt
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 4:41:32 GMT -6
6z gfs and it’s ensembles are amped and north, virtually the same as the 00z run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 6:32:16 GMT -6
6z euro is 2-4 inches for most of the metro with a narrow 4-6 inch band along 70 (using snow depth product to be conservative).
Heck of a model battle brewing.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 8:42:05 GMT -6
12z nam is amped like the gfs.
Maybe some ice for the northern counties, but mostly rain on that run.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2022 8:43:56 GMT -6
12z nam is amped like the gfs. Maybe some ice for the northern counties, but mostly rain on that run. You're in sweet spot. 991 over Indy with strong NE winds coming off lake. Ripping. |
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