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Post by amstilost on Mar 2, 2022 22:45:46 GMT -6
I could only find 2 earlier dates for the high temp record today. 1992, which was listed, then 1976 which I can only assume that it was also 79* along with 1992. Anyway, some fascinating stuff. March of 1992 was in the 11th month of a 14 month, call it a moderate El Nino. That El Nino peaked at +1.7* in Jan. 1992. March was at +1.5*. !976 was a complete different monster. 1973 was coming out of a short lived but strong El Nino that peaked at +2.1* on OND (Oct,Nov,Dec) and NDJ (Nov,Dec,Jan) in 1972. Then by MAM (Mar,Apr,May) in 1973, it was trending into a La Nina event. That La Nina event lasted 4 years and peaked at -2.0* in Dec 1973, then ending at -0.5* in MAM (Mar,Apr,May) 1976. March of 1976 was -0.7*. Pretty wild that it looks like these 3 records were 'localized' events with possible downsloping winds to spike the temps during daytime heating. I would venture a guess that any overnight low maximum temps were also downslope induced. Just another guess.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 2, 2022 22:54:18 GMT -6
Models pretty consistent with something wintry around the 11th of the month.
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Post by amstilost on Mar 2, 2022 23:07:37 GMT -6
I go in next Tuesday to get 2 screws put in to reattach my bone bit to the main bone. I'm in a boot now, and the sucker is heavy. I'm pretty sure my sis-in-law had a plate put in. I will try and verify that tomorrow. She is doing great now. This happened in Feb. 2020, 3 months after her husband passed away, then Covid hit. It took a long time before they did surgery. Between her grandson (lives with her), her daughter, and an awesome bro-in-law she was taken care of pretty well. She just turned 70 so she was 68 when the break occurred. The hardest part is to try to keep exercising the body while somewhat immobile. Get as much sunshine as possible, especially on days like today. Prayers for a successful surgery and fast recovery. Hopefully there is something to track weatherwise after you get back home.
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 3, 2022 9:37:28 GMT -6
GFS has a beauty here in 8 days.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Mar 3, 2022 9:41:45 GMT -6
Hello friends,
I am scheduled to play in a golf tournament a week from Saturday. Anybody have an idea about what temps are going to look like? !AccuNotWx! has a high of 43, but they are rarely correct, so I came to get valid thoughts/opinions. Thanks in advance!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 3, 2022 9:44:55 GMT -6
Hello friends, I am scheduled to play in a golf tournament a week from Saturday. Anybody have an idea about what temps are going to look like? !AccuNotWx! has a high of 43, but they are rarely correct, so I came to get valid thoughts/opinions. Thanks in advance! Most models currently are cold next weekend with temps potentially below freezing for a large portion of the time. Some models even show a winter storm. Too far out to lock in, but it definitely looks more like winter at the moment.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Mar 3, 2022 9:45:49 GMT -6
Hello friends, I am scheduled to play in a golf tournament a week from Saturday. Anybody have an idea about what temps are going to look like? !AccuNotWx! has a high of 43, but they are rarely correct, so I came to get valid thoughts/opinions. Thanks in advance! Most models currently are cold next weekend with temps potentially below freezing for a large portion of the time. Some models even show a winter storm. Too far out to lock in, but it definitely looks more like winter at the moment. Ugh.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Mar 3, 2022 9:53:40 GMT -6
Sirens just went off in Wentzville. They didn’t seem to stay on as long as a normal test, and it’s Thursday. Weird.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 3, 2022 9:53:42 GMT -6
What is the 6z GFS trying to do on the 8th?
That was a cutter yesterday.
Ensembles have a slightly different flavor, but it’s still the same dish.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 3, 2022 10:16:04 GMT -6
Hell, the 12z gfs is flirting with some snow in the northern metro on Monday/Tuesday.
People are in for a shock.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 3, 2022 10:27:33 GMT -6
Yea , when you look at the globals and ensembles there’s several chances of snow through out the next couple weeks. Definitely going to be a shock to the system after such a warm stretch of weather
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 3, 2022 10:28:35 GMT -6
12z gfs trying to lineup a beautiful storm next Friday. Nice little lead wave in the northern stream brings the cold air down with energy digging south ready to eject out. Strong high pressure diving down into Montana allowing the southern stream to gain latitude.
Looks beautiful, maybe just a hair too far northwest with the features, but I’m nitpicking.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 3, 2022 10:43:55 GMT -6
Hell, the 12z gfs is flirting with some snow in the northern metro on Monday/Tuesday. People are in for a shock. It’s definitely a probability for the 21-22 winter bi-state snow belt.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 3, 2022 12:07:38 GMT -6
For those interested pivotal wearher has the plus features publucly available for a few hours while they validate service restore.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 3, 2022 15:12:58 GMT -6
From my zone forecast. I have never seen this wording like 2-3 days out. Weird
SATURDAY NIGHT...Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated dry thunderstorms after midnight. Storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning in the evening. Storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning after midnight. Low in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Southwest wind 20 to 30 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon. High in the lower to mid 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Colder. Rain showers and scattered dry thunderstorms. Storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Low in the upper 30s. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 3, 2022 15:53:59 GMT -6
From my zone forecast. I have never seen this wording like 2-3 days out. Weird SATURDAY NIGHT...Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated dry thunderstorms after midnight. Storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning in the evening. Storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning after midnight. Low in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Southwest wind 20 to 30 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon. High in the lower to mid 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Colder. Rain showers and scattered dry thunderstorms. Storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Low in the upper 30s. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Says that throughout the area. It could be a new feature they are doing, or the forecast was computer generated and just simply posted as is rather then them editing those details out as they usually do. The 'dry' thunderstorm part is interesting though as we usually don't get those kind of storms around here, that's more a mountain/west kind of thing.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 3, 2022 15:57:57 GMT -6
Sunday night into Monday looking quite soggy. Are those arks done yet? Models printing out 2 to 4" rainfall amounts maybe more if we get training especially south of St. Louis.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 3, 2022 16:57:05 GMT -6
That would be an abrupt return to winter early next week on the 18z GFS
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Mar 3, 2022 17:32:07 GMT -6
Sounds like we better enjoy the next couple days of decent weather. Looks like winter is planning a return for quite a bit of March.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 3, 2022 17:57:38 GMT -6
That would be an abrupt return to winter early next week on the 18z GFS Not what the GFS had yesterday. Let’s see if it holds.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 3, 2022 20:32:43 GMT -6
Agree. things are coming together for prolonged period of unsettled weather, with at least a couple bouts of heavy rains. Several inches (2 to 4 inches at least)quite possible for the entire metro. This is a bit further north than earlier thinking by the wpc. I hope this doesn't verify. We don't need 4 inches of rain. Ground is pretty soft. I see the global models are up to their usual early spring antics. Fell for that last few years. I do believe some unseasonably cold weather is in store, but not ready to bite on any wintry precip.
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Post by amstilost on Mar 3, 2022 20:38:13 GMT -6
I go in next Tuesday to get 2 screws put in to reattach my bone bit to the main bone. I'm in a boot now, and the sucker is heavy. Labrat, it was her fibula bone that was fractured not her ankle. The Dr. put a plate and 9 screws to fix her up. My recollection of events is pretty good, just not the important particulars. Still, best of wishes to you.
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 3, 2022 21:31:16 GMT -6
That's looking interesting
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 4, 2022 9:09:53 GMT -6
That's looking interesting Looks like pretty violent atmosphere
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 4, 2022 10:14:23 GMT -6
NAM pretty close to a severe weather outbreak Sunday night for the metro and points south and east. RGEM features rain and storms to a bout of snow Monday AM before wrapping up with a dusting to an inch on the grassy surfaces. ICON and GFS still showing the 11th system and it looks interesting. Lots of dynamics in play and moisture as well as a very deep cold and heavy airmass. Someone in the midwest including in our wheel house could pick up north of 6+" out of it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 4, 2022 13:41:28 GMT -6
Things could change but Sunday PM/Monday looks like a big ol rainer pretty much area wide.
Tomorrow PM may be a different story depending on how much CAPE can develop.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 4, 2022 14:38:46 GMT -6
GEFS and EPS look interesting for snow chances next weekend.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 4, 2022 15:10:17 GMT -6
What are they showing snow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 4, 2022 15:39:23 GMT -6
What are they showing snow Just the potential for accumulating snow. Obviously still a huge spread in the possible outcomes at this range. One thing that’s looking very likely is big time cold next weekend. Might even be record breaking.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 4, 2022 18:50:34 GMT -6
What are they showing snow Just the potential for accumulating snow. Obviously still a huge spread in the possible outcomes at this range. One thing that’s looking very likely is big time cold next weekend. Might even be record breaking. A couple special ensembles embedded in there… Euro ensemble #8 is one for the record books 😂
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