|
|
Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Mar 4, 2022 20:57:23 GMT -6
Well damn... how concerned should I be about my Crawfish sale next Saturday!?
🥶🥶🥶🦞🥶🥶🥶
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 4, 2022 22:44:55 GMT -6
GFS looks very interesting for the end of next week:)
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 5, 2022 10:20:53 GMT -6
Looks like models have reversed for next week, now show no storm or a low that pulls a cutter with limited moisture resulting in not much happening next couple weeks after Sunday Night/Monday AM. Also cold shot looking unsurprisingly less potent then previously forecasted and more transient. Gets pretty warm again the week after next into Month's end. Can we just hurry up and get to July already?
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 5, 2022 10:24:27 GMT -6
Already 70+ degrees at 10AM and sunshine to come in from the west via satellite. Look out for rocket temps to 80s today. Records may fall yet again.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 5, 2022 10:48:45 GMT -6
Looks like models have reversed for next week, now show no storm or a low that pulls a cutter with limited moisture resulting in not much happening next couple weeks after Sunday Night/Monday AM. Also cold shot looking unsurprisingly less potent then previously forecasted and more transient. Gets pretty warm again the week after next into Month's end. Can we just hurry up and get to July already? Models are struggling with which branch becomes dominant. Plenty of interesting ensembles. 12z ukmet shows snow. I would say it’s a period of interest. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2022 11:07:23 GMT -6
Marginal risk pulled further south for today.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 5, 2022 11:17:51 GMT -6
End of 12Z GFS on the other hand... It's a dozy. Only 2 weeks away!  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2022 11:51:58 GMT -6
Marginal risk pulled further south for today. I haven't looked at soundings but this seems like a good setup for an isolated severe gust and possibly a weak tornado or two across the region later this evening. Dry line looking pretty defined out west looking at surface and satellite obs. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2022 13:30:41 GMT -6
Marginal risk pulled further south for today. I haven't looked at soundings but this seems like a good setup for an isolated severe gust and possibly a weak tornado or two across the region later this evening. Dry line looking pretty defined out west looking at surface and satellite obs. Looks like a CAP will keep a lid of things tonight when the front comes through. There’s some good dynamics in play if that CAP can be overcome though. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Mar 5, 2022 13:48:47 GMT -6
After being outside a lot this week, I hope we’re done with winter. Today is awesome outside
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2022 15:01:05 GMT -6
After being outside a lot this week, I hope we’re done with winter. Today is awesome outside Wishful thinking... |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Mar 5, 2022 16:00:57 GMT -6
Belleville is right, most models have toned down the cold and snow in the next few weeks. A couple small chances for snow but not like they were showing a week ago. In addition, the cold doesn’t look nearly sustained, much more of 1-2 day cold snap followed by a warm up thin cold again.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Mar 5, 2022 16:11:17 GMT -6
I think we prob have one more good cold snap before we can put a lid on this Winter.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2022 17:23:06 GMT -6
Some nasty supercells in Iowa today...confirmed tornado just south of Des Moines.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 5, 2022 17:35:27 GMT -6
Some nasty supercells in Iowa today...confirmed tornado just south of Des Moines. At least one more confirmed on the ground to the south of that as well. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2022 17:37:02 GMT -6
No bueno  |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 5, 2022 18:30:44 GMT -6
Looks like models have reversed for next week, now show no storm or a low that pulls a cutter with limited moisture resulting in not much happening next couple weeks after Sunday Night/Monday AM. Also cold shot looking unsurprisingly less potent then previously forecasted and more transient. Gets pretty warm again the week after next into Month's end. Can we just hurry up and get to July already? I see that a lot this time of year, especially the last few years, and that's why I wasn't ready to bite off on any real sustained cold and snow like earlier models. By the same token, if, and that's a big if, we do get any more significant snow this year, it seems to come out of nowhere. Very difficult to believe the operational runs more than 5 days in advance, particularly as we transition seasons. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 5, 2022 21:26:30 GMT -6
Looks pretty noisy here tomorrow evening into Monday AM especially south of I-70, but even up to Elsberry, MO could catch a rumble and flash or two. Looks like some wind and tornado potential tomorrow too south of I-44/I-64 (MO/IL) will likely see the slight risk be shifted north a county or 2 tomorrow with maybe an enhanced just south of the metro area to say Farmington, MO to Chester, IL line and points south.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2022 21:43:21 GMT -6
Looks pretty noisy here tomorrow evening into Monday AM especially south of I-70, but even up to Elsberry, MO could catch a rumble and flash or two. Looks like some wind and tornado potential tomorrow too south of I-44/I-64 (MO/IL) will likely see the slight risk be shifted north a county or 2 tomorrow with maybe an enhanced just south of the metro area to say Farmington, MO to Chester, IL line and points south. Metro could see some elevated strong to severe storms tomorrow for sure. The amount of wind energy in the atmosphere in going to be incredible. A tornado threat may develop across the southern counties where the storms should be surface based.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2022 22:10:11 GMT -6
Line out west looking awfully frisky with 65-70kt returns on velocity between Warrenton and Hermann.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 5, 2022 22:28:59 GMT -6
Line out west looking awfully frisky with 65-70kt returns on velocity between Warrenton and Hermann. Im in foristell and yep, heavy wind blown thunderstorms. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2022 22:35:37 GMT -6
Broad rotation developing along the line crossing the river near Brussels.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2022 23:06:40 GMT -6
Crickets?
Power is out here...pretty intense storm just rolled through
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2022 23:10:26 GMT -6
Tornado possible tag on that supercell moving into the western metro
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 5, 2022 23:14:07 GMT -6
I'm watching
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2022 23:18:42 GMT -6
Casualties reported in the Winterset, IA tornado. Pics from the scene look like possible EF3+ damage/strength.
Pretty volatile day.
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 5, 2022 23:19:06 GMT -6
Wish the southern part was more robust. Hardly any lightning left even.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Mar 5, 2022 23:56:00 GMT -6
Nothing like that first pre spring thunderstorm sound.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 6, 2022 0:29:59 GMT -6
Line out west looking awfully frisky with 65-70kt returns on velocity between Warrenton and Hermann. And here I made the announcement on my Facebook about it weakening and probably won't be too bad. 🤦‍♂️ Gotta love it. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2022 1:02:16 GMT -6
Line out west looking awfully frisky with 65-70kt returns on velocity between Warrenton and Hermann. And here I made the announcement on my Facebook about it weakening and probably won't be too bad. 🤦‍♂️ Gotta love it. Another station that won't be named was saying the same thing...waning intensity. But with the kinematics in place, that was a bad call. Pretty isolated stuff...but intense where the deep convection was sustained. I guess maybe I need to take a closer look at tomorrow's setup...but I still suspect heavy rain/storms will be the bigger story in the Metro. SE MO/IL could be a different story depending on cloud/precip trends and the SLP track. |
|
