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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 8:44:37 GMT -6
wonder which model will win lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 8:47:14 GMT -6
12z nam is amped like the gfs. Maybe some ice for the northern counties, but mostly rain on that run. You're in sweet spot. 991 over Indy with strong NE winds coming off lake. Ripping. Yeah, gfs and nam give me a blizzard. Euro, ggem, and rgem give STL a really nice moderate event. The model wars are on. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 8:48:33 GMT -6
NWS springfield illinois has a map that puts st.louis in the thick of it thursday based off of the WPC
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 8:51:55 GMT -6
Yes, I don’t like the look of this , I bet you see the euro - gem and Ukmet start to cave to something more like the gfs today . Hopefully I’m totally wrong.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 8:55:06 GMT -6
They must be basing there prediction off the Euro/Ukmet/Gem not the GFS. NWS St. Louis is definitely riding with the GFS and GEFS in its forecast.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 9:05:35 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 9:09:37 GMT -6
I’m pulling for the foreign model upset!
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2022 9:17:50 GMT -6
If there is any risk of Ice then a rain is best, if we can trend colder and be snow than fine, just as long as it is not too much. One good thing is next week seems to look quite warm. almost time to start pre emerging the lawns with some good soaking rains.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 9:18:21 GMT -6
12z NBM snowfall  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 9:19:11 GMT -6
the rgem would be a lot of sleet then snow
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2022 9:21:50 GMT -6
Yeah, the difference between RGEM and NAM is something else. Quite the battle.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 9:23:56 GMT -6
12z Icon has joined the north camp.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 9:33:26 GMT -6
RGEM did trend stronger for sure going towards the other solution some. Definitely the model we want for St. Louis
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Feb 14, 2022 9:55:26 GMT -6
Which model has been most reliable thus far?
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 14, 2022 9:56:53 GMT -6
So didn’t the Euro cave to the gfs in Januarys storm? And then gfs caved to the euro 2 weeks ago? Or is my memory going down the drain?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 9:58:58 GMT -6
12z gfs is holding serve in the north camp.
Has STL hitting 65 degrees on Thursday lol.
For perspective, at the same time, the rgem has STL at 21 degrees.
Forecasting is hard.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 10:21:20 GMT -6
Gem still south , it has trended north since yesterday, looks like the RGEM, it hammers the metro area with ice and snow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 10:32:44 GMT -6
Operational GFS is still somewhat of a strong outlier in its camp. GEFS as a whole still strongly favors N Mo to N IL for snowfall   |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 10:36:28 GMT -6
12z ukmet is a friend of STL still.
Crazy model battle
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2022 10:36:38 GMT -6
UKmet has quite a bit of frozen precip at first glance.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2022 10:39:07 GMT -6
Ukie has temps just absolutely crashing Thursday morning. Would be heavy rain to heavy sleet to heavy snow.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 10:42:41 GMT -6
Ukmet looks like Gem and RGEM, hopefully the Euro holds serve
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 10:46:25 GMT -6
This was last nights 00z Canadian ensemble mean snowfall. Definitely rooting for our foreign friends if you want snow in STL  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 10:54:54 GMT -6
A year or 2 ago it would have been a no brainer that the foreigners would win this battle, but things have changed some and it's hard to say how this goes.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2022 10:54:55 GMT -6
This was last nights 00z Canadian ensemble mean snowfall. Definitely rooting for our foreign friends if you want snow in STL I will say if roles were reversed here and only the GFS had us getting snow we would toss it and expect wagons N. I like our chances and who knows, this could be our last chance this year. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 11:01:17 GMT -6
I agree with snowman, the gfs is definitely better than before, it’s good to see most of it’s ensembles a little further south and East , not much but some
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 11:07:38 GMT -6
I actually slightly prefer this version of the GFS over the euro so it’s really hard to discount the GFS even without much support. This GFS has pulled some model coups before. Wouldn’t shock me if it does it again.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 11:22:41 GMT -6
I agree I definitely don’t think it’s a done deal either way, maybe a mix of both solutions would be the best way to go
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 11:24:28 GMT -6
little tick north on 12z Canadian ens..but still good for metro  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 11:25:31 GMT -6
holy crap I beat 920. Amazing
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