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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 13, 2022 7:09:01 GMT -6
NAM's building of Mid-80 degree dewpoints along the eastern Bluffs of the Mississippi River into the metro east is just a bit alarming... 120*+ HI with that? That's Persian Gulf/Red Sea/Middle-East levels of humidity, bordering on almost being uninhabitable.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 13, 2022 7:15:41 GMT -6
HRRR on the other hand sees dewpoint scattering during the afternoon as dewpoints drop into 59-62F range making the ambient temperature between 104-107, but keeps HI the same if not a degree less than the actual air temperature. Either way you slice it, it's going to be stupidly hot!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2022 7:17:41 GMT -6
Be interesting to see how cloud/precip trends effect temps today. Going to assume those "sunrise surprise" showers to the west will dissipate with time as mid-levels warm and ridging builds. Any dampening of surface warming is going to be made up by obscene humidity though. Hopefully that mixes out some later this afternoon and into tomorrow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 13, 2022 7:18:08 GMT -6
Today is going to be a beautiful and glorious day.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2022 7:19:08 GMT -6
The NAM has a well-known positive low-level moisture bias and the HRRR has a well-known positive surface temp bias...FYI
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 13, 2022 7:25:34 GMT -6
The NAM has a well-known positive low-level moisture bias and the HRRR has a well-known positive surface temp bias...FYI Which gets us to our famous 'Somewhere in the Middle' situation. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 13, 2022 8:20:24 GMT -6
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Post by yypc on Jun 13, 2022 8:31:39 GMT -6
That 83F low is anomalous even for records. Not only would it break the previous record by 3F, but I believe it will be the highest max low for the entire month of June. You have to go to July 4th before you see another 83F+ or higher max low. Certainly ominous for summer. In 2011/12 I remember we didnt even torch until the last week of June/first week of July. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 13, 2022 8:44:00 GMT -6
KSGF sounding this morning had 29C 850mb temp with southwest wind so that is advecting into our area. We already hit 90 before 9am. Evapotranspiration may be sucking up a lot of the insolation, but regardless 100+ is looking like a good bet at KSTL today if the clouds and showers out west clear off. Brutal, especially for mid June.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jun 13, 2022 9:09:27 GMT -6
Big relief in TD’s starting Thursday. Should drop heading into the weekend and May get into 50’s come Saturday.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 13, 2022 9:13:10 GMT -6
That 83F low is anomalous even for records. Not only would it break the previous record by 3F, but I believe it will be the highest max low for the entire month of June. You have to go to July 4th before you see another 83F+ or higher max low. Certainly ominous for summer. In 2011/12 I remember we didnt even torch until the last week of June/first week of July. In 2012 there were signs of the heat as early as March and April. There were no signs of that this year. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2022 9:17:26 GMT -6
That 83F low is anomalous even for records. Not only would it break the previous record by 3F, but I believe it will be the highest max low for the entire month of June. You have to go to July 4th before you see another 83F+ or higher max low. Certainly ominous for summer. In 2011/12 I remember we didnt even torch until the last week of June/first week of July. I'd still have a hard time comparing this year to 2012...it was bone dry and in the 90s by late March and it never really changed until the fall. Most of those 100+ days had dewpoints in the 50s...much different than the current setup. If the mean ridge gets parked over the MS Valley it will be a long, hot summer...but I think it's going to favor the Plains and IMW overall, with troffing dominating in the E US. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 13, 2022 9:25:27 GMT -6
Are those radar echos actually producing rain that is reaching the ground?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2022 9:27:53 GMT -6
Are those radar echos actually producing rain that is reaching the ground? I'd be surprised. I noticed NWS had "scattered sprinkles" in the forecast this AM...seems about right |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 13, 2022 9:29:05 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 13, 2022 9:33:29 GMT -6
Lots of clouds and it rained in Washington earlier, thundered here. Satellite shows quite a few clouds. Looks like a pop-up near the airport. Record fail?
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Post by Jeffmw on Jun 13, 2022 9:44:28 GMT -6
Watching a live report on The Weather Channel from St. Louis on the Heat you know its bad lol.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2022 9:51:34 GMT -6
So far IMBY we're 8 or 9 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time...that would put us right around 100* but it's definitely clouding up so that will put a damper on the surface warming. The deeper mixing zone is still out in SW MO looking at satellite, so today's record HT may stand given current trends.
Really wish we had some different weather to discuss...it's been a struggle lately
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Post by weatherj on Jun 13, 2022 10:01:22 GMT -6
91* F and a DP of 82*...feels like 113* already...ugh.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 13, 2022 11:17:07 GMT -6
The clouds are definitely having an impact on temperature. I was up to 91, now I'm cloudy had a quick sprinkle or 2 and down to 88.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2022 11:21:35 GMT -6
Yeah, I've been hovering around 90 for the past couple hours. Temp dropped a tick here too with the thicker cloud cover. But either way, it's pretty miserably hot when the breeze slacks off.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 13, 2022 11:27:57 GMT -6
Sun back out in force here and temp back to rising pretty quick
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Post by weatherj on Jun 13, 2022 11:34:17 GMT -6
Up to 94* here, but the sun has stayed out all morning and so far midday here. DP keeps hovering at 80*.
Edit: Up to 96* now.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 13, 2022 12:20:11 GMT -6
I had a similar effect with the clouds. Didn't notice any sprinkles. But when the clouds came through I dropped from 94 to 91. Now the sun came back out and I'm back up to 95
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 13, 2022 13:14:27 GMT -6
Sitting at 95/76 in Arnold for a crisp cool 110 HI
Thankfully it looks like the clouds will keep temps from reaching 100+
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Post by jeepers on Jun 13, 2022 13:29:10 GMT -6
Bleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeech.. Knew that it was bad when I noticed the condensation on the windows at dawn.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 13, 2022 13:34:47 GMT -6
bdg I know you were asking about this
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 13, 2022 13:49:30 GMT -6
I think we will eclipse 100. Im at 98 in st.peters.
Tomorrow is going to be intense if we have little to know clouds as it may dry out a bit which adds to temps as some of you have alluded too.
If we hit 100 today thats impressive with 1/2 the day being cloudy and sprinkly
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 13, 2022 13:50:30 GMT -6
bdg I know you were asking about this Perfect. This will be awesome. They provide a reasonable default, but then allow us to manually set it as well. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 13, 2022 13:56:17 GMT -6
Lambert now 99 and I believe that broke the record. We should have no problem busting 100 in the next hour
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