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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 12, 2022 12:54:39 GMT -6
In Carlyle, watching this close. Decided at 10 to take the kayacks out. May wait an hour. Really dying out quickly as it outruns the stronger instability. Are you at Hazlet? I was. Put in, ran across to the eagle pole. Didn't catch anything. Storm died quick. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 12, 2022 13:11:40 GMT -6
Have to see if that shortwave over Kansas can get anything going later, but ya like BRTN said mid level temps are toasty so that might but the kebash on anything  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 12, 2022 13:18:07 GMT -6
Pretty much hot a dry this week
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 12, 2022 13:52:50 GMT -6
Definitely one of those situations where it could get bad quickly if storms fire and become organized due to the instability and shear in place...but nothing may happen *shrug*
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 12, 2022 14:54:40 GMT -6
NAM still remains consistent with something tomorrow AM, mainly from the metro and points northeast.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 12, 2022 14:54:55 GMT -6
91/79...summer has arrived
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 12, 2022 14:55:56 GMT -6
NAM still remains consistent with something tomorrow AM, mainly from the metro and points northeast. The HRRR had been hinting at that too...but this has been a very chaotic pattern to nail down with such subtle forcing features. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 12, 2022 15:00:51 GMT -6
Heat Advisory now extended to Thursday. No Warning? Still a bit surprised. Could get 115*F HI at least in the metro Monday and especially Tuesday into Wednesday.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 12, 2022 15:07:15 GMT -6
18Z HRRR caps off the metro @ 106*F, surely overbaked, but talk about hitting the century mark in style!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 12, 2022 15:09:03 GMT -6
What if every time we hit 100*F+ we got one day of single digit temps at least for lows if nothing else? Sure it sinks regardless, but would be a trade off I suppose.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 12, 2022 15:12:20 GMT -6
HRRR shows a strong derecho tomorrow hitting the lakes not too far north of Chicago into Michigan and diving into Ohio.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 12, 2022 15:21:27 GMT -6
What if every time we hit 100*F+ we got one day of single digit temps at least for lows if nothing else? Sure it sinks regardless, but would be a trade off I suppose. I'd be fine with neither...both are deadly and cause damage to infrastructure |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 12, 2022 15:31:27 GMT -6
Couple storms trying to get going between KC and Colombia. Let’s see if they can hang on.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jun 12, 2022 15:43:16 GMT -6
Weather isn't any better at Tablerock this week either. Was 98 earlier. Sun's been beating down all day. Cooled off to 95 now!
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 12, 2022 16:43:48 GMT -6
Low level jet gets going nicely this evening... 55+kt into the 5000+ SBCape. Maybe it can find some boundaries around and kick off some storms and overcome that warm 700 temp  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 12, 2022 16:45:56 GMT -6
You'd think the speed convergence along the nose would be enough to get storms going...guess we'll see
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 12, 2022 19:04:37 GMT -6
Heat Advisory now extended to Thursday. No Warning? Still a bit surprised. Could get 115*F HI at least in the metro Monday and especially Tuesday into Wednesday. Unless something has changed Excess Heat Warning criteria for St. Louis is for a maximum HI of 110 F at any point. EHW criteria is quite variable across the NWS offices. For example Springfield and Paducah will issue 105 F for 4 consecutive days or 110 F at any point. And Lincoln will do for 105 F at any point. Anyway, the going NBM forecast is for a maximum HI of 109 F. Dewpoints are forecasted to drop on Tuesday. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 12, 2022 19:38:24 GMT -6
Will we be back in the 80s after this week? Or is this a prolonged event?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 12, 2022 20:47:07 GMT -6
0Z NAM finally drops storm chances.
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Post by yypc on Jun 12, 2022 22:37:09 GMT -6
102 with a 76 dew tmrw would u put us at a 119 HI.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 13, 2022 6:11:34 GMT -6
If I'm reading the data right the record for highest low for June 13 is 80⁰ set in 2017. I think the lowest we got this morning is 82. So I think we may have already set one record today
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 13, 2022 6:13:57 GMT -6
The low this morning was a crisp 83F with dewpoint of 78F and a HI of 93F. That will be the new record if it sticks. And our first Excess Heat Warming of the year has been issued.
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Post by dschreib on Jun 13, 2022 6:18:19 GMT -6
The low this morning was a crisp 83F with dewpoint of 78F and a HI of 93F. That will be the new record if it sticks. And our first Excess Heat Warming of the year has been issued. I got down to 81*. Brrr. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jun 13, 2022 6:27:14 GMT -6
Popcorn in central Missouri. Pretty crazy to see that at 7 AM.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jun 13, 2022 6:35:55 GMT -6
Looks like I picked the right week to go to Seattle.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2022 6:37:51 GMT -6
Sauna...Td is 81* here and everything is covered in heavy dew.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 13, 2022 6:46:05 GMT -6
The 20Z NBM forecast was off by 4F with the low this morning. It underestimated dewpoints which is likely at least partially why it underestimated the temperature this morning. There is a dry pocket of air forecasted to advect off the Ozark Plateau through the day so I am expecting dewpoints to drop. I think 100F is still on the table despite the 78F dewpoint right now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2022 6:59:01 GMT -6
Will we be back in the 80s after this week? Or is this a prolonged event? If the forecast holds up, this weekend should be much more comfortable with temps in the U80s/L90s and lower humidity. The ridge gets knocked down and shifted to our west which allows a cooler and drier airmass to drop into the region. But models are trying to build the ridge back in next week. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 13, 2022 7:00:02 GMT -6
Looks like we 'finally' got our Excessive Heat Warning! Looks to be in effect through at least Wednesday evening.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 13, 2022 7:03:38 GMT -6
That 83F low is anomalous even for records. Not only would it break the previous record by 3F, but I believe it will be the highest max low for the entire month of June. You have to go to July 4th before you see another 83F+ or higher max low.
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