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Post by rb1108 on Dec 18, 2022 12:08:09 GMT -6
Is there a reason the NWS isn't sounding the alarm yet on the potential severe impacts given the wind and temperatures combined with the snow? They have a graphic that says minor to potentially moderate impacts?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 12:08:10 GMT -6
Heres the Cobb output from that GFS run Cumulative LSR's are 16:1 with total snowfall of 14.8"  |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 18, 2022 12:08:24 GMT -6
If this storm happens on Thursday depending on how much we get could the roads be cleared by Saturday?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 12:11:24 GMT -6
Is there a reason the NWS isn't sounding the alarm yet on the potential severe impacts given the wind and temperatures combined with the snow? They have a graphic that says minor to potentially moderate impacts? I'd imagine they will start to beef up wording with the afternoon update if the Euro/EPS come in similar to the GFS and GEM
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 18, 2022 12:18:01 GMT -6
4 racks of baby backs and 6 beef short ribs. It's cold but the smoking must go on.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2022 12:18:15 GMT -6
looks a bit west and ridge a bit more ramped on euro than last night
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 18, 2022 12:18:17 GMT -6
12z Euro running now...
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 18, 2022 12:19:23 GMT -6
Is there a reason the NWS isn't sounding the alarm yet on the potential severe impacts given the wind and temperatures combined with the snow? They have a graphic that says minor to potentially moderate impacts? They just released a story. Growing concern for moderate impacts. Which that messaging is fine in a normal week, but this week is anything but normal with demands on commerce and transportation. The prudent thing to do is to have holiday and showed in preparations completed by Wednesday morning. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:21:44 GMT -6
12z euro with a bomb cyclone
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2022 12:22:09 GMT -6
euro is HOT
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 18, 2022 12:25:42 GMT -6
Heres the Cobb output from that GFS run Cumulative LSR's are 16:1 with total snowfall of 14.8" If nothing else the snow depth product from the recent GFS update looks more accurate. That is one thing that was said to have been significantly improved. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 12:25:45 GMT -6
4 racks of baby backs and 6 beef short ribs. It's cold but the smoking must go on. I've found that my smoker is more consistent in cold weather. I smoked a whole mallard duck several weeks ago when it was in the 20s, and had it pegged at 225* for the full 2.5 hours...I always get flare ups and temp spikes in hot weather. It was a smashing success. Just gotta dress for it! |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 18, 2022 12:26:05 GMT -6
4 racks of baby backs and 6 beef short ribs. It's cold but the smoking must go on. Smoking pizzas later myself. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 12:26:13 GMT -6
Euro bombs too far north righ over us basically 2-3” of snow them moves out quickly
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 12:26:16 GMT -6
Euro isnt as perfect as the GFS but that's still an extreme run
That would shut down the city for awhile
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:27:22 GMT -6
12z euro has 2-5 inches, extreme winds, and temps crashing to -10 by Friday morning.
Then it goes nuts over Lake Michigan.
Amazing run with even some untapped potential if the bombing out process starts sooner.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:30:38 GMT -6
Euro isnt as perfect as the GFS but that's still an extreme run That would shut down the city for awhile Don’t think I make it back to STL or you make it to Chicago Christmas Eve with this run. Unbelievable |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2022 12:30:46 GMT -6
Euro bombs too far north righ over us basically 2-3” of snow them moves out quickly no it like 3-6 inches. With wind and cold. Not like gfs, but not the ukmet either, good run if you ask me |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 12:31:51 GMT -6
Even though the Euro shuts down snowfall late Thursday night, it still has winds gusting to 50 mph during the day Friday
Ground blizzard
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 12:34:03 GMT -6
Euro isnt as perfect as the GFS but that's still an extreme run That would shut down the city for awhile Don’t think I make it back to STL or you make it to Chicago Christmas Eve with this run. Unbelievable Ya, I'm starting to get a little nervous about our drive up to Ottawa, IL Saturday morning
Winds could still be strong blowing snow around and temps will be stupid cold
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Post by jeepers on Dec 18, 2022 12:35:10 GMT -6
Can't pick up my big roast and perishables until Christmas Eve. I've got everything else ordered. If we're stuck, looks like frozen lasagne or chili for Christmas. I do not have the time to cook a holiday meal and freeze it before then.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:36:03 GMT -6
Can't pick up my big roast and perishables until Christmas Eve. I've got everything else ordered. If we're stuck, looks like frozen lasagne or chili for Christmas. I do not have the time to cook a holiday meal and freeze it before then. Papa Murphy’s pizzas. Just pop them in the oven and call it a day |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 12:38:25 GMT -6
The Euro is a step in the right direction with the overall picture (for more snow/stronger system). That being said if it was only the snow and not over the holiday most would agree. The combined impacts may make most think it's not a step in the right direction.
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Post by jeepers on Dec 18, 2022 12:40:26 GMT -6
In theory that's great. In reality, I have a 15 pound prime rib with my name on it for Christmas Eve at the store that I can't get until then, and a family with SOs showing up in the next two days. I have to feed them all for the duration. Gonna need a few more pizzas......................................................................................................................... Argh.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:50:37 GMT -6
12z euro is onboard with a clipper on the 26th as well. Currently, it would skirt the northeastern metro, but pretty good agreement across the primary models that this feature will exist in the region.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2022 12:53:18 GMT -6
well, maybe they wont be able to show up lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 12:54:52 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 13:12:34 GMT -6
The differences between the 00z and 12z EC is subtle, but a step in the right direction. It's definitely trended a bit further SW with the mid-level low and slows the eastward movement a bit which allows for more prolonged and robust post-frontal Fgen snowfall. Not the monster that the GFS is...but impacts would still be significant to extreme.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 13:28:41 GMT -6
Definite shift west on the EPS compared to the 00z data. Need just a small SW jog with these lows for a true kaboom ala GFS  |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 13:28:56 GMT -6
I'm just so glad no one is in danger of icing with this. The impacts will be far reaching for sure, but I couldn't even imagine a significant icing event and power outages with the conditions that will follow the storm.
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