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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 10:18:36 GMT -6
Obviously 4 days to go, BUT, if this outcome happened snow shower activity would continue through end of Friday with that strong of winds coming NE out of Lake Michigan. You can’t have my snow too lol I was actually wondering how far off the lake winds that strong could push the snow. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 10:20:12 GMT -6
Gem took a huge step towards gfs , great model trends so far get the ukie to hold its course and the euro to trend towards the gfs and we’ll be in business.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 10:20:28 GMT -6
That would shut the majority of this city down for a couple days With the staffing shortages and the holiday. It would be shutdown for a week or more... especially in those temps. Nothing would get cleared. |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 18, 2022 10:21:39 GMT -6
The 850mb and 700mb lows pass near the composite benchmark locations for STL. I thought 850mb looked a little too close for comfort, and was just going to ask about that...along with any expectation of earlier start time than modeled from WAA. |
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Post by jeepers on Dec 18, 2022 10:25:12 GMT -6
Even if zero snow falls on Thursday, the winds alone make it for potentially dangerous travel conditions. My youngest in college in Indiana was not supposed to come until Thursday, but now he's coming on Wednesday.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 10:25:26 GMT -6
The new GFS is the best model there is. There will be no more questions. haha... we all know better than that. But this is the first big winter storm it has had a swipe at in this part of the country so it will be interesting to see how it handle this. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 10:26:42 GMT -6
And Christmas morning low temps in the -15 to -20 range.
Santa's going to need a bigger coat and seat warmers.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:28:14 GMT -6
Bragging rights game is Thursday night.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 18, 2022 10:29:40 GMT -6
Bragging rights game is Thursday night. “Was” Thursday? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 10:30:27 GMT -6
Bragging rights game is Thursday night. “Was” Thursday? Right. They need to move to Wednesday |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 10:32:48 GMT -6
The GFS truly is pulled straight off the page of "IF ST. LOUIS EVER GETS A BLIZZARD... THIS IS HOW IT HAPPENS" The GYB method would work in this situation and the GFS modeled solution is not nearly perfect. It is PERFECT! Sadly, this solution would ruin the holidays for many, many, many people and likely result in quite few deaths from both the cold and the snow. While it is amazing eye candy for us weather folks... like a doctor looking at a really interesting medical case... we can't take the eyes of our patient... so I think it's wise to take a deep breath and measure the tone. Sorry to be a buzz kill  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 10:38:49 GMT -6
Yeah, the GFS is a slam dunk by the GYB book...yowzers!
4 days out...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 18, 2022 10:42:13 GMT -6
Differences in the setup, but anyone else getting Jan. 5th 2014 vibes?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 10:49:08 GMT -6
12z gfs ensembles are pretty good. A lot of big members, but still some complete misses.
So definitely need to be restrained still
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 10:49:34 GMT -6
Then there is the UKIE...talk about buzz kill lol.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 10:52:00 GMT -6
Ukie was out then in now out again, I had to do a double take
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 10:52:20 GMT -6
Ensemble mean 10:1 snowfall is up to 4.5" on the GEFS Lots of beefy members in there, but still a few duds  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 10:56:04 GMT -6
Comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z EURO at the 850mb level as this comes together shows the primary differences between the models. We really need to be focusing on the evolution of the flow and height pattern across E Canada and the resulting amount of ridging that develops in the E/SE US. The EURO is substantially weaker with the vortex across Hudson/James Bay and pumps the ridge up ahead of the digging energy. I've been saying that has looked suspect for several days now, and still think that's the case. It looks almost comical how the EC tries to spin up the mid-level low way up in the deep cold instead of the rapidly tightening baroclinic zone/thermal gradient across the S Plains.   This is still relevant, and worth the repost, lol  |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 18, 2022 10:58:03 GMT -6
The grocery stores are going to be crazy this week, between holiday shopping and potentially snow storm shopping.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 11:00:08 GMT -6
I'd like to place my bet on member 29...
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Post by REB on Dec 18, 2022 11:07:32 GMT -6
Help me out with timing. Can errands be safely ran on Thursday before noon.?
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 11:07:47 GMT -6
Differences in the setup, but anyone else getting Jan. 5th 2014 vibes? Was thinking same thing with GFS how it comes from up 44 with the heavy band plus temps crashing to 0. Obviously there was some potent WAA with that storm and it came straight from SW but definitely thought about it. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 11:07:59 GMT -6
Help me out with timing. Can errands be safely ran on Thursday before noon.? Taking GFS, no. But that’s my opinion right now. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 18, 2022 11:09:35 GMT -6
Well, I went ahead and changed my flight from LA to STL from Thursday to Wednesday. Let's hope it's not a jinx...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 11:10:56 GMT -6
Help me out with timing. Can errands be safely ran on Thursday before noon.? Well... if you mean grocery store... I'm betting shelves will be bare by then lol. But, it is possible you can get out in the AM Thursday. Most of the model trends have been for precip to start late morning and then ramp up quickly during the afternoon. But it could easily be faster than that. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 11:22:04 GMT -6
Between the Christmas holiday and and threat snow Walmart grocery was very crowded this morning. I would not wait until Thursday…
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 11:30:58 GMT -6
Oh... we sort of skipped this step...
Let's say we have a "watcher" for Thursday... we are long past "storm of interest"
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Post by foxrox on Dec 18, 2022 11:36:35 GMT -6
Ha! I'm outta here on Tuesday! Question is will I make it home on the 3rd?
My returned flight has me going through Chicago.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 11:37:59 GMT -6
Differences in the setup, but anyone else getting Jan. 5th 2014 vibes? Was thinking same thing with GFS how it comes from up 44 with the heavy band plus temps crashing to 0. Obviously there was some potent WAA with that storm and it came straight from SW but definitely thought about it. In some ways, this is potentially an even more extreme setup with a stronger ridge in play and possibly stronger SLP. Similar temp crash and severe WCI potential, with the -30*C isotherm and sub-500dm thickness surging in behind the storm. Synoptically, 2014 was more of a classical Southern stream storm. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 11:54:23 GMT -6
Looking at last the Euro... it seems way too quick at scouring out the cold air in the eastern/Southeastern US...back into the Ohio Valley. The GEM actually is actually a reasonable compromise in that regard. It also shows a plausible compromise with the evolution of the surface low. The GFS just looks too fast wrapping that up while the Euro puts all of its marbles in the north and only develops a modest series of waves that advance along the arctic front.
So... going with the KISS principle (keep it super simple) I like something akin to the GEM as a compromise right now.
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