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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 16:16:26 GMT -6
That would be a storm of a lifetime for sure. If there was ever a set up to create a monster storm, this set up has all the ingredients. There’s a ton of good things in the mix, 1060 HP , southern low grabbing gulf moisture, blocking to the north east feeding cold air into the system. This could be a beast for sure if everything came together
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 16:18:09 GMT -6
That's a shutdown storm for over here in the eastern CWA as well. Even the far southerners see 8-10 "...wow. The only area it looks to be screwing over now with the slightly more intense/westerly track is central/eastern IN and OH.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 18, 2022 16:20:57 GMT -6
STL to the east would be just insane ……
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 18, 2022 16:22:12 GMT -6
We want the apex of the cold air to spill down on the western side of the Great Plains. It will encourage cyclogenesis further south and west like what the GFS is currently showing. I'm hoping the apex does not come in through Missouri like what the Euro is showing as that will encourage cyclogenesis to further north and east.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 16:25:55 GMT -6
We want the apex of the cold air to spill down on the western side of the Great Plains. It will encourage cyclogenesis further south and west like what the GFS is currently showing. I'm hoping the apex does not come in through Missouri like what the Euro is showing as that will encourage cyclogenesis to further north and east. Yeah..I definitely believe it's either here or east. I think it would be nearly impossible for it to go too far west for any portion the CWA based on that intense HP. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 16:26:53 GMT -6
We want the apex of the cold air to spill down on the western side of the Great Plains. It will encourage cyclogenesis further south and west like what the GFS is currently showing. I'm hoping the apex does not come in through Missouri like what the Euro is showing as that will encourage cyclogenesis to further north and east. GFS definitely has more of a blue norther flow vs the EC which is more northwesterly. Helps the storm dig and close off/pivot quicker for sure. |
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Dec 18, 2022 16:32:40 GMT -6
We want the apex of the cold air to spill down on the western side of the Great Plains. It will encourage cyclogenesis further south and west like what the GFS is currently showing. I'm hoping the apex does not come in through Missouri like what the Euro is showing as that will encourage cyclogenesis to further north and east. Yeah..I definitely believe it's either here or east. I think it would be nearly impossible for it to go too far west for any portion the CWA based on that intense HP. The guys at BAM WX believe the models have a north west bias right now and will start correcting more to the east. I guess that is a possibility |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 16:39:11 GMT -6
They probably don’t like the current set up because it gives them more rain to start and less snow in Indianapolis, do to the low tracking right over top. They do have some good points, but they are definitely known to have geographical biases to their area. They say it highly unlikely the strong GFS solution will verify to to climatology averages makes it unlikely.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 16:41:45 GMT -6
Starting to see other regional NWS offices use the “B” word. I can’t remember if this was just a rumor or if there was validity to it, but I seem to recall someone saying the NWS STL would be extremely unlikely to ever issue a blizzard warning following the GHD storm. Not that it matters what terminology is actually used for actual impacts. Excited to get in range tonight for the short range models. I’m sure they’d hesitate a little more issuing a Blizzard Warning in the metro area where there isn’t as much of a concern for blowing snow as there is in rural areas, however they did issue one here in Central Missouri back in 2018 when it was a 2-5 inch predicted snowfall. In an event like the potential this one has, I’d doubt they’d hesitate on a blizzard warning, even in the metro if the criteria and the resulting conditions were met. I agree...probably not… Obviously this is way hypothetical at this point.. but I would hate to see them split hairs that way. It could send the wrong message. I assure you these "what if" scenarios are already being game-planned... at least informally. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 16:44:15 GMT -6
18z gfs ensembles are loaded.
And yes, it is possible for this to cut too far northwest still as evidenced by a couple of the over-amped ensemble members.
Great run there. Probably should be saved somewhere to look back on.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Dec 18, 2022 16:51:43 GMT -6
I’m sure they’d hesitate a little more issuing a Blizzard Warning in the metro area where there isn’t as much of a concern for blowing snow as there is in rural areas, however they did issue one here in Central Missouri back in 2018 when it was a 2-5 inch predicted snowfall. In an event like the potential this one has, I’d doubt they’d hesitate on a blizzard warning, even in the metro if the criteria and the resulting conditions were met. I agree...probably not… Obviously this is way hypothetical at this point.. but I would hate to see them split hairs that way. It could send the wrong message. I assure you these "what if" scenarios are already being game-planned... at least informally. Curiously…I know that the criteria for a Winter Storm Warning is 6+ in this area…if they didn’t go through with a blizzard warning… If it ended up on the lower end of the spectrum…would they issue a WSW with lower than 6 inches predicted? With the heavy holiday travel and a true Winter Storm with wind/snow, I’d think they’d really want to hit the message hard. Advisories wouldn’t be right in this scenario, IMO. Good luck to all the meteorologists out there in this one. Not an easy message for sure with the added complication of a holiday. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 16:53:55 GMT -6
18z GEFS positive snow depth change mean  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 16:59:07 GMT -6
18z GEFS positive snow depth change mean That's impressive for a mean at this range. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 17:10:32 GMT -6
18z GFS looks like those earlier runs of the EURO that showed the intense occlusion and stinger jet...116dm h85 low over E IL...holy smokes!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 18, 2022 17:30:03 GMT -6
18Z GFS is the dream run...5 days away too, 4.5 really. Insane, but still time to get shafted.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 18, 2022 17:47:56 GMT -6
50-60 mph gusts, 12-20 inches of snow. I'd sh*t myself Anyone care to take the 'over' or 'under' on this one?🤔🤔🤔😁 |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 18, 2022 17:50:33 GMT -6
I generally try and look at the 500 MB vorticity charts first before looking at anything and I seen the 18z GFS and just about crapped. I hate to root against it but it sure is crappy timing for everybody traveling, even small distances.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 17:58:56 GMT -6
If anything even close to that, roads would be very dangerous probably into Saturday or Sunday for sure . The blowing/drifting and bitterly cold temps will make it brutal to keep pavement clear. Salt and chemicals won’t work very well, you’re basically fighting a losing battle but you still have to plow with the storm to keep up and be able to plow that much snow.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 18, 2022 18:06:09 GMT -6
50-60 mph gusts, 12-20 inches of snow. I'd sh*t myself Anyone care to take the 'over' or 'under' on this one?🤔🤔🤔😁 Here's the official lines as reported at klsx. Venmo your bets. Snow total by Friday pm o/u 5.5 Coldest low by 12.27 o/u -5 Highest wind gust o/u 47.5mph Blizzard warning issued yes +130 no -110 Winter storm warning yes -350 no +200 |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 18, 2022 18:18:50 GMT -6
50-60 mph gusts, 12-20 inches of snow. I'd sh*t myself Better wear some Depends just in case! |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Dec 18, 2022 18:21:52 GMT -6
Anyone care to take the 'over' or 'under' on this one?🤔🤔🤔😁 Here's the official lines as reported at klsx. Venmo your bets. Snow total by Friday pm o/u 5.5 Coldest low by 12.27 o/u -5 Highest wind gust o/u 47.5mph Blizzard warning issued yes +130 no -110 Winter storm warning yes -350 no +200 Over, Under, Under, no, yes |
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Dec 18, 2022 18:25:59 GMT -6
Anyone care to take the 'over' or 'under' on this one?🤔🤔🤔😁 Here's the official lines as reported at klsx. Venmo your bets. Snow total by Friday pm o/u 5.5 Coldest low by 12.27 o/u -5 Highest wind gust o/u 47.5mph Blizzard warning issued yes +130 no -110 Winter storm warning yes -350 no +200 The sharps would be hammering the no WSW at +200. Some real value there. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 18:38:52 GMT -6
18z Euro only goes out 90 hours, but it is digging the energy further SW compared to the 12z run.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 18:41:30 GMT -6
Snow, I was wondering that, what do you look at it on? Is it similar position to gfs or not that much digging out west
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 18:59:37 GMT -6
Snow, I was wondering that, what do you look at it on? Is it similar position to gfs or not that much digging out west If you sign up on Pivotal you can get a 7 day free trial. $9.99 per month after. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 19:28:40 GMT -6
Snow, I was wondering that, what do you look at it on? Is it similar position to gfs or not that much digging out west If you sign up on Pivotal you can get a 7 day free trial. $9.99 per month after. Tropical Tidbits has it with limited features for free as well. |
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Post by TK on Dec 18, 2022 19:43:58 GMT -6
Steady as she goes tonight snow lovers...I think we are possibly entering one of the most significant and timely winter weather event weeks in our lifetime. Widespread storm holiday travel disruptions expected with high winds and bitter crashing cold. I would like to emphasize as Chris mention earlier, that this is likely going to be an extreme and potentially life threatening winter weather event. Wednesday should be your last safe day to travel and get your errands done. Please shut it down after that if at all possible unless it is an emergency. I expect Thursday-Friday to be treacherous. Who knows after that...Be safe and make plans now....
"Oh the weather outside is frightful"...
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Post by thechaser on Dec 18, 2022 19:57:46 GMT -6
0z NBM looks good. Off to a good start for the night.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 20:06:09 GMT -6
What’s the nbm show for accumulation
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 20:14:23 GMT -6
Here’s the 00z NBM snowfall and max wind gust   |
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