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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 20:15:40 GMT -6
0z NBM looks good. Off to a good start for the night. Some folks may not know what exactly the NBM is. It is the National Blend of Models (NBM) and is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. So the 00z version is actually based on model data from earlier in the day. So the 00z output reflects output from earlier in the day... not the 00z models. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 20:19:05 GMT -6
It’s always nice to see the NBM go up consistently. That’s a good sign
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 18, 2022 20:21:32 GMT -6
18z Euro only goes out 90 hours, but it is digging the energy further SW compared to the 12z run. Unfortunately 90 hours is the crucial point. But, I do see the Hudson low shifted east flattening the ridge side of the system and just barely opening up the upper low level in North Dakota. This gives the thermal gradient a more zonal orientation. It's certainly not a cave to the GFS but it is a step in the right direction. It is at least trying to start cyclogenesis further south and west on this cycle and hints at the possibility of GYB potential. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 20:49:34 GMT -6
NAM at 84h looks good, much more in the GFS camp
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 20:50:56 GMT -6
It’s always more exciting when you get with in NAM /SREF range two more models to watch come out
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 18, 2022 20:54:15 GMT -6
00Z NAM at the end of its run already showing precip starting to breakout in southern sections of the viewing area and lifting north.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 18, 2022 21:09:54 GMT -6
1067 high would be record for lower 48  |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 21:23:33 GMT -6
NAM has a 1067 HP as well
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 18, 2022 21:27:18 GMT -6
Looking like a storm we will remember
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 21:29:06 GMT -6
00z Icon has the most amazing temp gradient I’ve ever seen.
Very impressive run for STL.
Actually, a bit too far west for me lol.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 18, 2022 21:29:39 GMT -6
Icon says it’s a cutter we will remember.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 21:29:56 GMT -6
ICON has a 979 low sitting over Chicago
Holy moly
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 18, 2022 21:30:53 GMT -6
Looking like a storm we will remember And I'll be in Nashville TN. Grrrr |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 21:34:59 GMT -6
Man there are some amazing ingredients to work with, it’s almost like the perfect setup for a massive storm for Stl . Definitely things could change, i but currently we’re in a good spot for a crazy storm
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 18, 2022 21:37:33 GMT -6
00Z GFS starting...grab your popcorn! 🍿
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 18, 2022 21:48:46 GMT -6
Looking like a storm we will remember And I'll be in Nashville TN. Grrrr I guess you will remember you missed it |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 21:57:25 GMT -6
GFS looks a little west through 84
Still digging. Going to be another monster but definitely west.
This sounds crazy but it looks like it’s going tonight be a bit more amped as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 21:58:58 GMT -6
GFS coming in stronger
Hold onto your butts
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 21:59:18 GMT -6
It’s cutting to far west for sure, didn’t dig nearly enough
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 21:59:51 GMT -6
Lol
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stegenwx
Wishcaster
Posts: 82
Member is Online
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 18, 2022 21:59:53 GMT -6
Cutter
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 22:00:34 GMT -6
Yep terrible run for us lots of rain to start
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 18, 2022 22:00:53 GMT -6
Looking like a storm we will remember It's been a long time since 78. I'd like one more storm to remember in my lifetime! |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 22:01:34 GMT -6
Toss it.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Dec 18, 2022 22:01:43 GMT -6
Is further west for us mean missing us and put us on warm side of storm
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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 22:02:24 GMT -6
Yes
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Post by thechaser on Dec 18, 2022 22:02:58 GMT -6
Oof
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 22:03:04 GMT -6
STL goes from 40 to 12 degrees in 3 hours on that run
Talk about flash freeze
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 18, 2022 22:03:25 GMT -6
This run seems very weird to me, the center of low pressure hits central Mo and then goes straight east over StL it looks like.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 22:03:57 GMT -6
The GFS is not a complete miss by any means
We would still get several inches of backside snow
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