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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 26, 2022 9:56:03 GMT -6
It's crazy, that here in Belleville our season total is 10-11". Yet it's like 3-4" for most of the metro. Feels like the extra 6-8" in SWIL will not be properly recorded for the long term records I hope im wrong I'm barely over 2" for the season here and it's really affecting me, lol I'm loosing track of the number of times we've come up short of forecast...it's getting very irritating. It’s been a really weird winter so far…… Down here we were very lucky to be in on that big November snow but since then we have came up short pretty much on every snow since… Even being in the sweet spot a few times…… I know what you’re feeling BRTN … We’ve had those feelings down here for many years now lol |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 26, 2022 9:57:55 GMT -6
Im not going to lie, I'm not putting a lot of thought into this system. It was a long two weeks ahead of the pre-Christmas storm that consumed pretty much all of my down time. Today is my last "vacation" day... so I'm trying to lay low.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 26, 2022 10:03:02 GMT -6
I'm barely over 2" for the season here and it's really affecting me, lol I'm loosing track of the number of times we've come up short of forecast...it's getting very irritating. It’s been a really weird winter so far…… Down here we were very lucky to be in on that big November snow but since then we have came up short pretty much on every snow since… Even being in the sweet spot a few times…… I know what you’re feeling BRTN … We’ve had those feelings down here for many years now lol It's amazing how different the weather is between you guys and St. Clair Co...they've been jackpotted several times in recent memory. MBY definitely hasn't lived up to it's reputation as a snow magnet lately...like since 2013. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 26, 2022 10:06:28 GMT -6
Im not going to lie, I'm not putting a lot of thought into this system. It was a long two weeks ahead of the pre-Christmas storm that consumed pretty much all of my down time. Today is my last "vacation" day... so I'm trying to lay low. It's so frustrating to invest time into analyzing these storms only to watch them fall apart and become a shadow of what they were expected to be. Take it easy and rest up. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 26, 2022 10:16:13 GMT -6
It's crazy, that here in Belleville our season total is 10-11". Yet it's like 3-4" for most of the metro. Feels like the extra 6-8" in SWIL will not be properly recorded for the long term records I hope im wrong KBLV or KCPS have it? is there a kblv? Is that SAFB? If so I would think they would have it. With the 3.1" from the other night. I think that is a little off. But that's what a "federal" reported at SAFB. With that and the 6-8" early storm. Belleville would be officially close to 12.5" all together. As far a KCPS I don't think they were in the death band on November 12th IIRC. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Dec 26, 2022 10:20:47 GMT -6
Daughter surprised me with an Ecowitt Wittboy weather station for Christmas. She apparently did a lot of research on a weather station subreddit. Does anyone have any experience with these? It has a haptic rain sensor. I should get a pretty good idea about how accurate that is over the next week or so. There is a more standard precipitation gauge available that I might add on. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 26, 2022 10:24:50 GMT -6
KBLV:
Nov- 7.5"
Dec- 2.6"
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 26, 2022 10:32:55 GMT -6
Daughter surprised me with an Ecowitt Wittboy weather station for Christmas. She apparently did a lot of research on a weather station subreddit. Does anyone have any experience with these? It has a haptic rain sensor. I should get a pretty good idea about how accurate that is over the next week or so. There is a more standard precipitation gauge available that I might add on. Never heard of that brand but that looks pretty cool. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 26, 2022 10:47:47 GMT -6
is there a kblv? Is that SAFB? If so I would think they would have it. With the 3.1" from the other night. I think that is a little off. But that's what a "federal" reported at SAFB. With that and the 6-8" early storm. Belleville would be officially close to 12.5" all together. As far a KCPS I don't think they were in the death band on November 12th IIRC. KCPS is only a couple miles from my house and we caught it. |
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Post by perryville on Dec 26, 2022 11:13:54 GMT -6
Woke up to the ground covered again, down here where nobody lives in Perry County, MO. I am going with 1” overnight. Around 25 miles south of me, in Jackson, MO, they received 2”+.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 26, 2022 11:46:23 GMT -6
Glad I didn't get too hyped about snow with this clipper system. I know some of my fb friends from Cape Girardeau said the roads down there were terrible at 6 am today. I continue to look ahead with interest to two time periods. Specifically Friday, then again Monday into Tuesday. Overall a period of unsettled weather throughout the weekend with some potential for precip...Particularly interested in the Monday into Tuesday event as a heavy rain maker as it will have solid jet dynamics to help enhance rainfall - I would not be surprised to see 4 inches of rain in a 24 hr period although right now, best potential is as you head west from the metro but that can change as we get closer. Not seeing any signs of winter weather any time soon...fairly seasonable temperatures with no major long term temperature anomalies and a few chances for rain.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 26, 2022 11:57:52 GMT -6
Looking ahead, this isn't a bad looking severe weather pattern around these parts next week. There's even a system later this week that bears some watching. Climatology says areas further south are more likely than this far north, but bears monitoring.  |
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Post by jeepers on Dec 26, 2022 12:18:23 GMT -6
I don't think that I got anything. I consider anything that falls today a surprise, because it feels like weather for some other place. Up to 31 degrees.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 26, 2022 12:22:34 GMT -6
Not sure I'd call temps well into the 50s and near 60 seasonal. But ok.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 26, 2022 12:22:42 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen is giving us hope this morning that the torch is short lived.
Looks like Ural blocking returns setting off another stretched PV. That would quickly bring the cold and potential snow back into play around D10 or so.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 26, 2022 12:26:01 GMT -6
The short term models blow up precipitation literally as the best forcing aligns itself E/SE of 3/4s of the metro.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 26, 2022 12:29:40 GMT -6
Yeah 50s are well above normal.
60s are blow torch level this time of year.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 26, 2022 12:51:51 GMT -6
"Seasonal" is kind of a catch all phrase to me...temps between -25* and 75* are seen during winters here, so that range is seasonable, lol.
"Average"...near, above and below...those are specific terms based on a comparison to calculated long-term mean temperature.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 26, 2022 12:55:09 GMT -6
Agreed winters are amazing temp wise where you can have 100 plus degree swings from week to week, even sometimes day to day, this particular week if we hit 65 Thursday that will be a 65 to 80 degree swing this week from our coldest. What is normal anymore lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 26, 2022 12:56:28 GMT -6
The short term models blow up precipitation literally as the best forcing aligns itself E/SE of 3/4s of the metro. Radar is coming alive to the NW and there's some moisture return coming up 44 with some weak echoes moving NE. Might pick up a half inch in spots. So far we've lost more snow cover than we gained today..."not great" |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 26, 2022 13:18:28 GMT -6
Looks to me like the mid-level low is tracking further east than models had it...closer to ILX than UIN.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 26, 2022 13:22:50 GMT -6
The radar is coming alive... There is steady flurries in downtown Saint Louis.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 26, 2022 13:43:33 GMT -6
Our average high is about 40. That is the coldest time of the year, so 50s, even low 60s, while above average and approaching the edge of the envelope, to me is not unseasonably warm, bc of the frequency. I also mentioned no long term major temp anomalies. We will have temps in the 50s, with an occasional 60+, but the long term pattern is not supportive of a continuation in the 60s for days on end, imo, just sporadically. I looked for percentile charts on temperatures, but my focus got shifted to other things so i didnt get too far. Ftr, i remember it getting to 75 in the middle of january in 1986.that is unseasonably warm. It happened one day when a cold front was approaching. (I was in a training class for unix and c that day...it was so hard being cooped up inside)
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 26, 2022 13:52:28 GMT -6
I can see right now this is gonna come together just to the S...radar is blowing up W of the river...imagine that
Enjoy, St. Clair Co!
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Post by landscaper on Dec 26, 2022 13:58:58 GMT -6
My opinion, low 50’s in January above average but not crazy, upper 50’s well above normal, 60’s in January Blow torch .
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Dec 26, 2022 14:04:18 GMT -6
Moderate snow falling on top of our half inch from last night. Looks pretty!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 26, 2022 14:09:09 GMT -6
Moderate snow being reported in Hannibal
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 26, 2022 14:28:48 GMT -6
Well just 364 days to go
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 26, 2022 14:29:40 GMT -6
I can see right now this is gonna come together just to the S...radar is blowing up W of the river...imagine that Enjoy, St. Clair Co! Maybe. Models yesterday had that band blowing up on the Missouri side collapsing before going through 44/64. Regardless it's crazy how bad the rap and HRRR have been earlier this morning with handling this. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 26, 2022 14:30:53 GMT -6
Normal high is about 42- anything above 42 I consider above normal… anything lower I consider below normal
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