Chris's Corner - The Christmas Edition for 2022

Good evening all...
I haven't had any time to post between my crazy work schedule, mixing in some reporting on the rain/cold/wind and dealing with some other behind the scenes projects and now my turn to catch something... flu? cold? covid? not sure but its trying to pull me down. I have dropped in to see who's posting... and what... and you all have pretty well covered a lot of the model highlights of previous runs so I'm not really going to jump into that discussion.

My point here is to say that despite the model variances... which in many respects are still very big... I think we are coming into enough of a concencus for the Wednesday night to Friday timeframe that we need to start elevating the dicsussion. I know there is always a lot of interest in the snowfall potential... how much are we going to get, etc... I think that's the wrong focus right now. Snow will not be the biggest part of this story. Snow will simply be the complicating factor that will take an already dangerous winter weather system and make it that much worse. The difference betwee 1-2 and 3-5 inches isn't going to make a big difference to the impact in the end....and I think we need to focus more on messaging the extremely dangerous winter weather event we are likely facing late next week... and less on the inches of snow.

I'm going to borrow the NWS tactic of using goal posts to show the possible range of impacts. On the left goal post you have the lowest impact event that would include dangerous cold, strong winds and a light accumulating snow...maybe 1-2 type snow. On the other end of the spectrum.. the right goal post represents the most extreme possible outcome... and it's pretty extreme...a full blown North Dakota type blizzard with 60+ mph wind gusts, intense snowfall and temps and wind chills below zero...an extreme winter weather event. So, if the range of options rests between those goal posts... the message is clear I think... there really isn't much different in the impacts. No matter what goal post we are closest too... this is going to be an extreme and potentially life threatening winter weather event. 5 days ago, I would not have had enough confidence to make that call... but now with the growing agreement on the large scale pattern... I can. If we miss to the left and don't get much snow at all... it's still going to be a very dangerous wind/cold set-up. If we miss wide right... you're at the north pole.

Overall, the solution that has been showing up most often is something similar to the Euro... fast crashing temperatures... rapid spin up of low pressure. This scenario opens the door to about 4 to 6 hour period of heavy wind blown snow with blizzard conditions possible across the entire region. The duration of the snow will limit accumulations... and so will the wind. The snow will pile up in drifts while being swept off the open ground. It will be almost impossible to get an accurate measurement.

Something else to consider is the affect of the wind on the flake sizes. I've seen this many times... when the temperature profile argues for great LSRs... but the intense winds shatters the dendrites and you end up with lots of tiny flakes that don't pile up nearly as effeciently. For that reason, I'm leaning closer to a straight 10=1 as I look at this system. We are still way too far to put numbers on it but safe to say it will be more than enough, when combined with the wind to have at least major to severe impacts.

Ok... that's all I have time for.

Stay warm and happy holidays!

That system in Feb. 2021 during our mini 3 week ice age was talked up to have 20:1 + snow ratios. Still was a phenomenal event with the drifting and the snow falling with temps around 5 degrees. Though I believe the ratios ended up being closer to 12:1.

Hope you feel better soon, Chris. It's a terrible time of year to get sick (as if there's a good time). My wife is fighting a head cold and praying it doesn't get worse.

Now to the pending winter weather. Chris is dead on - the possibility of sub zero temps with winds of 40+ mph is something we just don't see in this area of the country very often. And there's going to be a lot of holiday travelers who are complete novices when it comes to dealing with these conditions.

It’s always exciting once you get inside the NAM 84 hour range

GFS looks fairly similar to 18z. Maybe a tad E.

A few inches, 30-40 mph winds and temps falling into the single digits Thursday evening.

00z ggem is in the weaker/east camp.

0-3 tonight, all three models weaker a lot less snow .

Models showing an impulse on Christmas Eve and another on the 26th.

So, could be good mood snow after the meat and potatoes as well.

Definitely great potential just not as awesome as several other runs earlier today

If you want local spirits, Stumpy's is made by some of my relatives. I myself needed a margarita tonight, nothing like a Saturday to have all the lab instruments break down. So glad I work from home, just not looking forward to having to take the dog out to potty.

00z Ukmet should be a monster

Looks like I have to stay up for the EURO now.

Ukmet looks way better than earlier today

Uncle Ukie is just ripping snow right through the metro Thursday evening with blizzard conditions.

Strengthening considerably while moving through our area.