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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 17, 2022 22:55:53 GMT -6
Ukie is 5-8 area wide at 10:1 ratios. Take it for what it’s worth.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 0:26:17 GMT -6
I don't have full access to the Euro, but from pivotal weather's site it looks like the Euro would be quite strong with the SLP in central IN at hour 120. Someone with more access can fill in the blanks. I can't tell where the SLP tracks from 96 to 120 in getting there, but it certainly looks good from that ending position though and once again looks like winds would be crazy.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 1:05:22 GMT -6
It looks like it does deepen a lot more once it gets into the great lakes region.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 1:14:15 GMT -6
I don't have full access to the Euro, but from pivotal weather's site it looks like the Euro would be quite strong with the SLP in central IN at hour 120. Someone with more access can fill in the blanks. I can't tell where the SLP tracks from 96 to 120 in getting there, but it certainly looks good from that ending position though and once again looks like winds would be crazy. The low doesn't really bomb out until it gets to Michigan, but that doesn't change much around here.
After a few inches of snow, it has wind chills getting down to -33F Thursday night
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 1:20:17 GMT -6
Thanks for that 920. As stated by many earlier, the extreme temps and windchills will make this a rather unprecedented event for these parts. Adding in just 2 or 3 inches of snow would up the ante even more. Quite dangerous and potentially life threatening if proper preparation is not adhered to.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 4:09:02 GMT -6
6z gfs is coming in stronger/further west.
Great run for the metro.
Pretty similar to 12z from yesterday.
That should ease some nerves a bit.
Especially, considering the 6z Icon was a swing and a miss.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 4:48:17 GMT -6
6z gfs ensembles coming in more clustered and beefy.
Ensemble mean is about 5 inches at conservative 10-1 ratios. That’s a very impressive ensemble mean at this range.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 18, 2022 7:17:41 GMT -6
Ya 06z gfs is looking real good. Just another tick west and we are going to be golden!
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 7:21:26 GMT -6
6z gfs ensembles coming in more clustered and beefy. Ensemble mean is about 5 inches at conservative 10-1 ratios. That’s a very impressive ensemble mean at this range. drifts would be in the feet on that run. Travel would be near impossible. The scary thing is, the GFS is an absolute monster and has room to become even bigger if it cuts a bit further W. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 7:24:49 GMT -6
The precip shield on the Euro is interesting. It really thins out in the cold sector which actually doesn’t make a lot of sense considering a borderline negative tilt. You would expect the low pressure winds to have more an effect on that snow coming down through central Illinois than the HPs NE winds winning out.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 18, 2022 7:48:24 GMT -6
12Z NBM has about 4-5" for the metro area through 120 hours (Friday morning).  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 7:59:10 GMT -6
Some -50*F readings under the ~1060mb ridge centered over Yukon. This airmass is the real deal.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 18, 2022 8:08:06 GMT -6
Some -50*F readings under the ~1060mb ridge centered over Yukon. This airmass is the real deal. The pocket of energy playing a role in troughing the flow in the CONUS should enter the Yukon area from the Arctic Ocean today. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 18, 2022 8:11:15 GMT -6
I am supposed to drive to Nashville on Thursday morning. Should I go Wednesday evening? I am thinking I should.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 8:13:00 GMT -6
I am supposed to drive to Nashville on Thursday morning. Should I go Wednesday evening? I am thinking I should. If it’s not a big deal to leave Wednesday then yes, I would! |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 8:16:34 GMT -6
Enjoy the sun today because we not see any for a week afterwards.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 18, 2022 8:20:33 GMT -6
Yeah, I've got deliveries scheduled for Thursday at work that I'll either move up to Weds or push to the following Tuesday. Thankfully, we're off Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon for the holidays. Workforce will be thin, at best, on Thursday.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 18, 2022 8:26:19 GMT -6
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Post by freezyfree on Dec 18, 2022 8:31:35 GMT -6
Okay, my son is scheduled to fly home Friday morning from Altus via OKC . When will the storm move out and do we have a chance?? I don’t see the USAF letting him leave early.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 8:31:58 GMT -6
I am supposed to drive to Nashville on Thursday morning. Should I go Wednesday evening? I am thinking I should. you are a wise man! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 8:37:45 GMT -6
A blend of the 00z/06z models are VERY CLOSE to a full-blown blizzard across the region. This system is starting to look more like the classical Southern Low with the vort max/jet streak digging just north of the 4 corners and going negatively tilted by the river valley. The EC looks like a considerable northern outlier and I wouldn't put much weight in it's solution. It's trying to close off the h85 low across N IA/S MN and that just looks unrealistic to me...this isn't going to develop that deep into the cold air when there's a strongly digging wave ejecting into the S Plains.
Let's see what the 12z runs show...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 8:39:49 GMT -6
It should be noted that even if the EURO verified...we would still have near-blizzard conditions with 2-3" of powder and 50mph gusts on the backside.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 18, 2022 8:47:54 GMT -6
Driving conditions will likely go downhill quickly. Like Chris and others have said, flakes will be obliterated on the way down. Hard to keep roads clean with the blowing/drifting snow. Make a mental note of the places that drift shut.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2022 8:51:39 GMT -6
hi.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 8:55:46 GMT -6
Right now the model camps are split between the GFS/UK southern solutions and the EC/GEM in the northern camp. The EPS mean looks more like the GFS...which is pretty telling.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 9:29:51 GMT -6
Right now the model camps are split between the GFS/UK southern solutions and the EC/GEM in the northern camp. The EPS mean looks more like the GFS...which is pretty telling. 12z Icon is in the north camp |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 18, 2022 9:31:03 GMT -6
Blizzards don't happen here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 9:32:24 GMT -6
Right now the model camps are split between the GFS/UK southern solutions and the EC/GEM in the northern camp. The EPS mean looks more like the GFS...which is pretty telling. 12z Icon is in the north camp The GFS seems like the most consistent/stable model lately...take that for what it's worth. I never bother to look at the ICON myself. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2022 9:35:16 GMT -6
Blizzards don't happen here. Never say never...if there was ever a setup that would produce blizzard conditions here, this is it. How many times have we seen a 1050mb+ ridge nosing into a rapidly deepening cyclone nearby? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 9:36:03 GMT -6
12z Icon is in the north camp The GFS seems like the most consistent/stable model lately...take that for what it's worth. I never bother to look at the ICON myself. I’m not saying it is right, but it has higher verification scores than the gfs and ggem. Reasonable people can argue with how the verification scores are calculated. |
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