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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2023 20:54:10 GMT -6
Have to agree with Friv, personally. Really though, anybody's thoughts sound reasonable. The GFS looks like junk I'm more interested in 1/25 system because the placement of high pressures seems a little more conducive then, per the ECMWF. Also agree with brtn. It does look like we have a good chance of seeing some kind of accum event within the next 10 days. I'm going to assume that next weekend is going to be a pretty close call, but a primarily rain event with some potential for sleet to mix in as the center of low moves away. While the southeast trend is noteworthy this winter, I think we are going through a pattern change as things adjust with the teleconnections, so I'm going to hold that the trend we've been seeing has less relevance over the next two weeks. One thing I've learned is that things always take a little longer than depicted with a pending pattern change. Very much akin to the line of work I'm in. Software development more often misses the first deadline than not. The conversation evolves from "yeah we can do that by then", to "what is the business impact if we don't release by then" to "ok, we can do a limited release but the good stuff will come later", or "here's a new date". I continue to like the time period of late January into February. Very hard to sustain a long lasting cold wave in February, so I really don't see pure winter in February, but rather more of a roller coaster (In January we got stuck at the top and we are looking down). IOW, we won't stay cold, we won't stay warm, and we will have rains in February, but we will also alternate more readily to cold and snowy periods as well. If I was a betting man, I think 2 warning criteria snows in the period from late January into February before we begin a transition in earnest to Spring. Just purely my thoughts based on what I've seen in the past. With the kind of temperature changes I have in mind, that brings with it the potential for heavy precipitation events, including the potential for two 6+ snowstorms. Overall, I'm thinking early Spring but that just means tail end of Feb into March - plenty of winter before then, IMO. The gfs has looked bad and I usually dont check beyond it or the GEFS. But some of the other models show better potential. We have certainly grown accustomed to getting out snow events when its very cold out. But most of the time we get our biggest snowfalls with temps within 4C of the freezing point. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2023 21:54:41 GMT -6
Friv, you’ve had over 2X as much snow as Chicago so far this season lol.
Bet you would have been pretty excited had I told you that back in October.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2023 9:47:44 GMT -6
12z Icon looks decent for the metro on Sunday.
Good start to today’s model runs.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 17, 2023 9:59:37 GMT -6
WC what does ICON show?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 10:17:50 GMT -6
12z Icon looks decent for the metro on Sunday. Good start to today’s model runs. Pretty good model support for some wet snow Sunday...Janky GFS is close to a fully phased bomb. Let's see what wild swings the 12z run brings, lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 10:44:56 GMT -6
GFS still very close to a favorable phase with the Sunday system with a much more organized system following it mid-week with a nice looking winter storm. Pretty good trends overall but the GFS looks way different than the other models so still a lot to sort out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 10:47:53 GMT -6
Snowstorm here with the SLP tracking through central TN. Kind of a nice compromise between the GFS and the GEM/EC. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2023 10:52:23 GMT -6
Looks like two legit snow chances around here the next 8-10 days. One this weekend on the 22nd then that system middle of next week. The one next week seems to have some high end potential. Then after those systems looks like below normal temps will dominate over most of the CONUS. Winter isn’t done yet.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2023 11:03:37 GMT -6
Looks like two legit snow chances around here the next 8-10 days. One this weekend on the 22nd then that system middle of next week. The one next week seems to have some high end potential. Then after those systems looks like below normal temps will dominate over most of the CONUS. Winter isn’t done yet. Has it started? |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2023 11:24:47 GMT -6
Looks like two legit snow chances around here the next 8-10 days. One this weekend on the 22nd then that system middle of next week. The one next week seems to have some high end potential. Then after those systems looks like below normal temps will dominate over most of the CONUS. Winter isn’t done yet. Has it started? It had a false start in November, and then a hiccup in December prior to Christmas. Otherwise, it’s been a pretty nice fall. |
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savunma
Weather Weenie
Granite City
Posts: 72
Snowfall Events: 11/16/14 - 1.5"
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Post by savunma on Jan 17, 2023 11:29:44 GMT -6
I'm sitting on a whopping 2" for the season so my answer would have been a resounding "NO".
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 11:38:50 GMT -6
GEM gives some support to the GFS with the partial phase on Sunday...doesn't quite bring it together but has a nice frontogenetic band of snow across the region. Models seem to be trending colder with that one. And the following system still looks like a significant winter storm.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 17, 2023 12:16:37 GMT -6
Let’s just wait and see whether we get cold enough for the white or clear frozen stuff! Prefer white but models do change!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2023 12:26:27 GMT -6
GEM gives some support to the GFS with the partial phase on Sunday...doesn't quite bring it together but has a nice frontogenetic band of snow across the region. Models seem to be trending colder with that one. And the following system still looks like a significant winter storm. Ukmet/euro definitely are in the southern camp which caps high end, but probably gives the metro the best chance at all/mostly snow on Sunday. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 12:34:54 GMT -6
GEM gives some support to the GFS with the partial phase on Sunday...doesn't quite bring it together but has a nice frontogenetic band of snow across the region. Models seem to be trending colder with that one. And the following system still looks like a significant winter storm. Ukmet/euro definitely are in the southern camp which caps high end, but probably gives the metro the best chance at all/mostly snow on Sunday. A consensus between those and the GEM/GFS looks pretty good from this range. I don't expect that to be a significant snowfall event(beyond an advisory) unless the phase happens sooner, as the primary shortwave is getting sheared with time. The second system in line looks much better organized. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 17, 2023 12:35:55 GMT -6
It had a false start in November, and then a hiccup in December prior to Christmas. Otherwise, it’s been a pretty nice fall. The two weeks before Thanksgiving were pretty memorable. The suprise 6 inch snow, then the weekend before Thanksgiving I was in Chicago for a conference, it was cold and mood flakes every day. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2023 12:50:39 GMT -6
Ukmet/euro definitely are in the southern camp which caps high end, but probably gives the metro the best chance at all/mostly snow on Sunday. A consensus between those and the GEM/GFS looks pretty good from this range. I don't expect that to be a significant snowfall event(beyond an advisory) unless the phase happens sooner, as the primary shortwave is getting sheared with time. The second system in line looks much better organized. Euro is supper suppressed with storm #2. Hopefully, those don’t become EC bombs. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 12:53:54 GMT -6
I don't see why either storm would be suppressed...there isn't any strong blocking or deep cold airmass involved. The true arctic airmass looks to stay pretty well bottled up until very late month. I'm going to assume the EC and UK are too far south given that.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2023 12:54:05 GMT -6
Mmmmeeeeeehhhhh
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 17, 2023 13:29:15 GMT -6
Looks like the PV maybe utterly destroyed by my Birthday 1st of February. That should signal some cold spilling somewhere for a few days, but after that it's lights out for Winter or any long lasting favorable pattern. Dave says cold into April however, but that might just be the kiss of death for the winter season as we likely end up warmer and drier again. La Nina depending amongst other factors.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 13:33:10 GMT -6
A few days? Major SSW reflective events usually last several weeks...
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2023 13:36:16 GMT -6
The euro solution and gfs/gem are only 500 miles apart currently, what could possibly go wrong…
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2023 13:41:00 GMT -6
Was the Christmas cold the result of an SSW ? That lasted 5 days, I don’t pay a ton of attention to that stuff, it really hasn’t been epic or great for us since the awesome 2013-2014 winter. Half the time it’s hyped up the cold goes to the “other side” the other half seems like 4-5 days of deep suppressed cold followed by a rapid warm up. The models do have more potential than what we’ve had the last three weeks, but there is definitely no consistency at all. One day one looks good and othered don’t only to flip to the opposite. The ensemble’s have been fairly consistent the last week showing a snow mean of 3-5” in the next two weeks
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 13:57:26 GMT -6
No, it was a combination of a -AO/NAO and -EPO/WPO that produced cross-polar flow. The tropospheric vortex was perturbed, but the strat vortex was anomalously strong.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2023 14:00:15 GMT -6
This is a very 30k foot view, but you can get an idea where the EPS is favoring snowfall for the two systems by looking at the snowfall probs. It has us squarely in the game for the system this weekend and the one next week.   |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 17, 2023 14:01:44 GMT -6
How does EURO look for storm next week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 14:07:54 GMT -6
EC looks pretty good with Sunday's system...phases with the N stream and closes off a mid-level low across the region dropping a few inches of snow. Definitely good trends overall with the models today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2023 14:11:08 GMT -6
How does EURO look for storm next week. Not good. It digs the energy into the Rio Grande Valley and has the low developing in the N/Central Gulf. Looks way too far south to me...would think the storm would develop sooner and lift NE. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2023 18:24:13 GMT -6
Let’s remember the old adage…one storm at a time.
That seems to be more true this winter than others.
One thing of note is that there appears to be a steady downward temp trend for the back half of this week with overnight lows finally making it back below freezing.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2023 19:23:26 GMT -6
let's remember the old adage, "it better f'n snow'
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